Three Reasons No. 18 BYU Will Defeat Arizona in Tucson

BYU RB LJ Martin against Arizona | BYU Photo

With game time fast approaching, it’s only natural for fans to feel some pregame jitters. We are here to help. Arizona is BYU’s toughest test of the season, but BYU is a good football team with a lot to offer in this particular matchup. Here are three reasons that BYU will beat the 4-1 Wildcats.

BYU doesn’t have Oklahoma State’s defense

BYU cornerback Evan Johnson with an interception returned for a touchdown against ECU | BYU Photo

Fifita appears to be back to his original form, but it’s difficult to tell how much his gaudy numbers are a function of him or the competition he’s played. In games against Weber State and Oklahoma State, Fifita completed 75% of his passes for 749 yards, 10 touchdowns and 1 interception on 12.5 yards per attempt. In Arizona’s other three games, Fifita has completed just 58% of his passes for 592 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions on 5.7 yards per attempt. Fifita can certainly sling it when he gets hot, but he faces a stiff test in BYU’s 7th ranked defense in passing efficiency allowed. If we had to bet, Fifita’s performance will look closser to what he did against Kansas state than what he did against Oklahoma State.

Despite Fifita’s big play ability, Arizona ranks 98th nationally in expected points added (EPA) per dropback thanks to a below average receiving corps led by transfers from New Mexico and Chattanooga. BYU, on the other hand, ranks 15th nationally in EPA per drop back allowed behind a pair of shut down corners in Evan Johnson and Tre Alexander. In terms of pass efficiency, opposing quarterbacks are better off spiking the football than targeting these two. Johnson and Alexander ranked 2nd and 16th nationally among cornerbacks in passer rating when targeted thanks to three combined interceptions and no touchdowns allowed. For Arizona to win, they will need to be productive in the pass game. Fifita hasn’t shown enough against their tougher opponents to inspire confidence that he can do it against BYU.

BYU’s offensive line should be able to keep Bear Bachmeier clean

BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier attempts a throw against Stanford | BYU Photo

An underrated stat of the season is that BYU has only allowed four sacks. Three of those sacks came in Bachmeier’s second career start while the fourth came on a scramble that probably should have been a throwaway. Other than that, Bachmeier has had all kinds of time to throw. Bachmeier has faced pressure on only 22% of his drop backs despite being blitzed 36% of the time. Arizona loves to bring pressure, blitzing 47% of the time but only generates pressure on 27% of dropbacks faced. From a clean pocket, Bachmeier has been dynamite, releasing the ball in just over 2.1 seconds on average for over 10 yards per attempt.

Arizona’s secondary has been equally dynamite, but it’s also difficult to tell if that is a function of schedule or ability. The answer is likely both, but Arizona has faced one QB in the top 60 in passer rating (Rocco Becht) and gave up 12 yards per attempt and a pass efficiency rating of 162.1. Bachmeier ranks 27th nationally in efficiency. If he has time, BYU fans should trust his decision making even against Arizona’s Desert Swarm.

BYU has the advantage running the football

BYU RB LJ Martin against Colorado | BYU Photo

Given the weather forecast and elite secondary play, the ability to run the football will be imperative in keeping the chains moving and opening up the play action pass. In this regard, BYU has been far more consistent this season. Arizona started the season strong, averaging 189 yards through their first three games. Over their last two games, they’ve rushed for 153 yards total on 2.7 yards per carry. Meanwhile, BYU has run for over 150 yards in every game they’ve played despite often facing 7-8 man boxes to force BYU’s true freshman Bachmeier to beat them. So far, he has. Both defenses are stout against the run, ranking 27th and 28th in success rate against the run. Still, BYU has shown the ability to run the ball in a variety of different ways even if the LJ faucet gets turned off. For Arizona, it’s mostly been running back Ismail Mahdi or nothing. If BYU can limit him and Fifita, Arizona will have a difficult time moving the football.