Two Ways BYU Can Lock Up a Big 12 Title Spot This Weekend

BYU WR Chase Roberts against TCU | BYU Photo

It's possible for BYU to clinch a spot in the Big 12 title on Saturday, the Big 12 announced on Monday. BYU and Texas Tech are the only two teams with the opportunity to clinch a title spot this weekend.

According to the release, there are two ways in which BYU could clinch a spot in the title game. In this article, we will break down those scenarios and calculate the probability in which the dominoes fall in BYU's favor.

Scenario #1

In both scenarios, there are three dominoes that would need to fall in BYU's favor for the Cougars to clinch a title spot.

1. BYU beats Cincinnati
2. Houston loses to TCU
3. Arizona State loses to Colorado

First and foremost, BYU needs to beat Cincinnati. There's no scenario where BYU could clinch a title spot without beating the Bearcats. Second, BYU would need some help from TCU and Colorado.

FPI gives BYU a 67.5% chance to beat Cincinnati. FPI gives TCU a 53.2% to beat Houston, and FPI gives Colorado a 36.8% chance to beat Arizona State. So what are the odds that all three dominoes go in BYU's favor? There's a 13.2% that all three of these dominoes fall in BYU's favor.

Scenario #2

By the numbers, the second scenario is more probable than the first. Like the first scenario, BYU and Colorado would need to win. In a somewhat ironic turn of events, the third domino is that BYU archrival Utah could clinch the Cougars spot in the title game with a win over Kansas State.

1. BYU beats Cincinnati
2. ASU loses to Colorado
3. Utah beats Kansas State

The odds that all three of these games go in BYU's favor is 22.0%.

BYU Controls Its Own Destiny

In the end, there is a 35.2% chance that one of these two scenarios could come to fruition for BYU. Most importantly, BYU is one of only two teams in the league that doesn't have to worry about what happens around the league this weekend. BYU and Texas Tech are the only two teams in the league that control their own destiny to the Big 12 title game.

If the Cougars win out, they will be playing in the Big 12 title game no matter what happens over the next two weeks in the Big 12.