What the Advanced Analytics Say About BYU at Arizona

BYU wide receiver Parker Kingston catches a touchdown against Arizona | BYU Photo

On Saturday, the BYU football team travel to Tucson to take on the Arizona Wildcats. The Cougars are undefeated and looking to remain in the conference title race, while the Wildcats are looking to avenge last season's loss to BYU. BYU is slightly favored in this game. The Cougars are currently 2.5-point favorites according to oddsmakers.

Depending on the model, advanced analytics either agree or disagree with oddsmakers. Some are more bullish on BYU's chances, others favor BYU by three points. One model believes this game is a tossup.

BCFToys (FEI)

BCFToys gives BYU a 70.5% chance to beat Arizona with a projected final score of 28-20. BCFToys ranks BYU as the 21st team nationally with an opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency ranking of no. 17 nationally and an offensive ranking of 37th nationally.

Arizona ranks 55th nationally with an offensive ranking of 62nd and a defensive rating of 39th.

BYU also has a special teams advantage in this game per FEI. The Cougars' special teams ranks 33rd nationally compared to 116th nationally for the Wildcats.

SP+

SP+, a predictive metric invented by ESPN's Bill Connelly, predicted BYU-Arizona.

SP+ gives BYU a 58% chance to win with an expected final score of 24-21. BYU ranks 21st in SP+, headlined by the defense and special teams which ranks 12th and 7th nationally, respectively. The BYU offense ranks 38th nationally.

Arizona ranks 37th in SP+. The Wildcats are ranked 47th on offense, 31st on defense, and 90th on special teams.

FPI is the most bullish on BYU's chances. FPI gives BYU a 69.6% chance to win.

CFB Graphs

CFB Graphs is not nearly as bullish on BYU as other predictive models. CFB Graphs gives BYU a 50.1% chance to beat Arizona with a projected final score of 25-24.

By the numbers, quality drive rate is a metric to watch in this game. Quality drive rate is essentially the percent of drives that go into an opponents' 40 yard-line. BYU ranks 3rd nationally in quality drive rate. For the BYU offense, the problems have come inside the redzone. BYU ranks 85th in points per quality drive. However, BYU has been trending up in that area over the last two or three games.

Arizona only allows 30% quality drives which ranks 16th in the country. BYU's strength will matchup against Arizona's defensive strength in this game.