Where BYU Can Move Up in the AP Poll: Week Five
For the third consecutive week, BYU is ranked in both national polls. They are currently ranked #13 in the AP poll following a 4-0 start that includes victories over two ranked teams. The Cougars are favored over in-state rival Utah State this weekend. A BYU win over Utah State is expected by national voters. Therefore, BYU will need some help to move up in the polls. That's right, it's time for another edition of AP poll science.
What is AP poll science? It is a look at the surrounding teams in the AP poll and who they play this week. We identify the teams that are most vulnerable. It gives you, the fan, a list of games to watch or monitor this weekend that could impact BYU's ranking.
There are multiple games that will impact BYU's standing in the AP poll this weekend.
Before we dive in, let's address the elephant in the room. All of this will go away if BYU doesn't take care of business against Utah State. In the words of Al Davis, "Just win, baby."
AP Poll Science: Week Four
#5 Iowa: Iowa takes on Maryland on Friday night. The Hawkeyes have a 57% chance to win according to ESPN FPI. SP+ likes Maryland to win a close game in the ballpark of 24-21.
#6 Oklahoma: Oklahoma plays at Kansas State this weekend. The Sooners have an 84% chance to win according to ESPN FPI.
#7 Cincinnati: Cincinnati plays its most important game of the season this weekend at #9 Notre Dame. The loser of this game could drop below BYU in the polls.
#8 Arkansas: Arkansas travels to #2 Georgia this weekend. If the Razorbacks make the game competitive, they might stay ahead of BYU in the polls. A blowout loss would likely put them below the Cougars in the AP poll.
#9 Notre Dame: See #7 Cincinnati.
#10 Florida: Florida travels to Kentucky this weekend. The Gators have a 77% chance to win according to ESPN FPI.
#11 Ohio State: Ohio State travels to Rutgers this weekend. Rutgers is 3-1 and its only loss came last week against Michigan. Ohio State is the more talented team, but keep an eye on this game. Rutgers is dangerous.
#12 Ole Miss: Ole Miss has the unenviable task of taking on #1 Alabama. The Rebels has a 19% chance to beat Alabama according to ESPN FPI.
#13 BYU: BYU has to beat Utah State, it's that simple.
BYU is also in danger of being leapfrogged by a teams that win big games on Saturday.
#14 Michigan: Michigan is 4-0 this season. If they come away with a win at Wisconsin this weekend, they will probably surpass BYU in the rankings.
#15 Texas A&M: Texas A&M has a 69% chance to beat Mississippi State this weekend according to ESPN FPI.
#16 Coastal Carolina: Given their strength of schedule, Coastal Carolina probably won't climb higher than #14-#15 this season. The Chanticleers take on ULM this weekend.
#17 Michigan State: Michigan State is a heavy favorite over Western Kentucky this weekend. A win over Western Kentucky probably won't be enough to jump BYU in the rankings.
#18 Fresno State: Even with a win, Fresno State won't surpass BYU in the rankings.
#19 Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State takes on #21 Baylor. Expect the winner of Baylor-Oklahoma State to jump near #15 in next week's poll.
Teams on Upset Alert
A new feature to AP poll science, we rank the three most vulnerable teams ranked ahead of BYU in the polls. Last week, we put Notre Dame, Iowa State and Clemson on upset alert. Both Iowa State and Clemson lost and dropped below BYU in the rankings.
By default, multiple top-12 teams will lose this weekend. Instead of listing the obvious choices like Ole Miss, Arkansas or Cincinnati/Notre Dame, here are three outside-the-box teams on upset alert.
1. Oklahoma
Oklahoma has not looked like the dominant Oklahoma team we've grown accustomed to watching. The Sooners have three narrow victories over Tulane, Nebraska, and West Virginia this season. Until the Sooners can figure out their offensive woes, they should be on upset alert.
If Kansas State had starting quarterback Skylar Thompson in the lineup, I would probably pick K-State over Oklahoma. Thompson is doubtful due to a knee injury he suffered earlier this year.
2. Iowa
Iowa takes on a very talented Maryland team that is 4-0 this season. If Maryland can limit costly mistakes, they have a chance to pull off an upset.
3. Texas A&M
Texas A&M scored only 10 points against Colorado and Arkansas this season. Keep an eye on them this week as they take on an improved Mississippi State team.
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