Why the BYU-Utah Game is Pivotal to the Big 12 Title Race

BYU wide receiver Keelan Marion returns a kickoff for a touchdown against Utah | BYU Photo

On Saturday, no. 15 BYU and no. 23 Utah will face off in the most consequential rivalry game in at least 17 years, if not ever. This game will come with much more than just bragging rights (and if you've spent any time on social media this week, you know that there are plenty of bragging rights at stake). The winner of this game will hold the inside track to the Big 12 title game. In this article, we'll explain exactly why this game is so pivotal and how it will setup the winner for success.

It's still early in the conference season and a lot can change. However, ESPN FPI views this as a four-team race between Texas Tech, BYU, Utah, and Cincinnati. FPI projects there is a 95.9% chance to one of those four teams will win the Big 12 this season.

If FPI is right and those are the four teams to beat, the BYU-Utah game could determine who plays Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship. Texas Tech is the odds-on favorite to make the title game at this point in the season, so

If BYU Wins...

If BYU wins, the Cougars would improve to 4-0 in conference play. Most importantly, BYU would hold a two-game lead over Utah in the standings and it would hold a tiebreaker over the Utes. In other words, BYU would potentially have the wiggle room to lose two more games and still play in the conference championship game.

Having some wiggle room is important given BYU's upcoming schedule. The Cougars have to travel to Iowa State one week after what will likely be an emotional rivalry game, then they have to play Texas Tech on the road. There's also a potentially massive road game at Cincinnati coming up in November.

A 7-2 BYU would go to Arlington ahead of a 7-2 Utah thanks to the head-to-head victory. If BYU beats Utah, FPI would give BYU a 73% chance to win at least seven games in conference play.

Of course, a lot could happen among the other teams in the league that could alter the outcome of a tiebreaker (like a late surge from Arizona State in 2024, for example). But for all intents and purposes, a BYU win over Utah could turn this thing from a four-team race to a three-team race.

If Utah Wins...

If Utah wins this game, both teams would be 3-1 in the conference standings. However, Utah would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker, meaning BYU would need to be a full game better in the standings than the Utes to make it to Arlington.

There's two ways that could happen:

1. BYU wins out and Utah loses at least one more conference game

Like we mentioned earlier, BYU is really going to need some wiggle room in October and November. FPI gives BYU a 7.5% chance to go unbeaten after the Utah game. BYU has too many tough games on the remaining schedule to expect a perfect 5-0 down the stretch.

FPI gives Utah a 25% chance to finish the season unbeaten after the BYU game. In other words, there is a 75% chance that Utah will lose at least one more game.

Put those odds together and there is only a 5.6% chance of those two things going in BYU's favor.

2. BYU loses one more conference game after Utah and Utah loses two more conference games

There is a scenario where BYU could make it to the Big 12 title game at 7-2 with a loss to Utah. However, it would likely require Utah going 6-3 in conference play. If Utah beats BYU, the Utes will have a 66% chance of winning at least seven conference games.

BYU would have a 36% chance to get to seven conference wins with a loss to Utah.

Put those odds together and there is only a 24% chance that those two things go in BYU's favor.

BYU certainly would not be eliminated from the title race with a loss to Utah. However, the odds of a title game appearance would skyrocket if the Cougars can take care of business against their archrival.