How BYU Football Stacks Up in ESPN's First 2021 College Football Power Index
Every college football season, ESPN updates a College Football Power Index that ranks teams in various categories. On Tuesday morning, ESPN released its first FPI rankings - BYU came in at #63. You can check out ESPN's complete projections for BYU down below.
Note: The definitions of these metrics come from ESPN's CFB Power Index page.
FPI
Definition: Expected point margin vs average opponent on neutral field. This is the overall ranking that ESPN uses to rank FBS teams from 1 to 130 in the preseason.
BYU's initial FPI is 2.9, meaning BYU would beat an average opponent by three points on a neutral field. 2.9 puts BYU right in the middle of the rest of college football - ESPN FPI ranks BYU at #63.
According to ESPN's Seth Walder, BYU is expected to take a step back this season. "For BYU, the outlook is worse," Walder said. "But that's logical. Zach Wilson will likely be the No. 2 overall pick in the NFL draft, and for a team to lose such a talent and not recruit like Alabama or Ohio State, it won't be able to rebound as quickly. BYU ranks 63rd in FPI, nestled in between UCLA and Buffalo."
Projected Win/Loss Record
Definition: Projected overall W-L accounting for results to date and FPI-based projections.
BYU: 7.3-4.7. BYU is expected to go 7-5 according to ESPN FPI's latest projections. Those numbers will change throughout the season, and they can be very unreliable before teams have played games.For example, ESPN FPI gave BYU a 28% chance to beat Navy on Labor Day last year.
Win Out %
Definition: Percentage of simulations in which team won all remaining scheduled games.
BYU: 0.1%. In the words of Lloyd Christmas, "So you're telling me there's a chance?" BYU essentially has a 0% chance to go undefeated against their 2021 schedule.
6 Wins %
Definition: Percentage of simulations in which team won at least six games.
BYU: 88.2%. According to ESPN FPI, BYU has an 88% chance to go to a bowl game against their current schedule.
Playoff %
Definition: Chances of making the CFB Playoff according to the playoff predictor.
BYU: 0%. Not surprising, but ESPN FPI gives BYU a 0% chance to make the playoff given BYU's 0.1% chance to go undefeated. Last year, FPI put BYU's chances to make the College Football Playoff as high as 25%.
Make National Championship %
Definition: Chances of making the CFB Playoff championship game.
BYU: 0.0%
Win National Championship %
Definition: Chances of winning the CFB Playoff championship game.
BYU: 0.0%.
You probably noticed that our site looks a little different. It is currently under construction and the commenting capability is turned off. While we work on some exciting updates to improve your experience, you can ask us questions through one of our social media channels:
Facebook - @BYUSportsIllustrated
Twitter - @SI_BYU and Casey Lundquist at @casey_lundquist
Instagram - @BYU_SI