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The Advanced Preseason Metrics Put No. 14 BYU in Unchartered Waters

BYU is a top 15 team in the AP Poll; that's note the case for the advanced metrics
Joe Wheat|
BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier in the Pop-Tarts Bowl against Georgia Tech
BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier in the Pop-Tarts Bowl against Georgia Tech | BYU Photo

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BYU Cougars

For maybe only the second time in the Kalani Sitake era, BYU has to deal with something far scarier than last year's quarterback controversy: expectations. This is a rare spot for BYU to be in too. BYU's appearance in the initial AP poll is just the 4th time in 30 years they have found themselves ranked in the preseason. But just how high are those expectations? The votes and the power ratings tell an interesting story.

How the AP Voters view BYU

The notion of a preseason AP top 25 is an unpopular one… but maybe they are on to something? BYU checked in at no. 14 in the inaugural poll in a rare tie with USC. There is certainly an argument for BYU to be higher. After all, BYU is tied for 5th in wins over the last two seasons, and is top 20 in returning production per SP+. Still, earning its highest preseason ranking since 1985 is progress.

Based on voter points, there are clear tiers in this poll. 293 points separate number no. 1 Ohio State and no. 7 Miami, while 248 points separate #7 Miami and #8 Texas A&M. Likewise, 292 points separate #8 Texas A&M and #14 BYU. 338 points separate BYU and #17 Washington. From a national perspective, BYU is firmly in the second tier of the sport, which feels about right even if the no. 14 by their name feels low.

BYU is one of four Big 12 teams ranked this preseason, including #12 Texas Tech, #21 Utah, and #23 Houston. BYU opponents Arizona and TCU find themselves just outside the poll at 29 and 30. Future opponent Notre Dame is ranked #4 after receiving 6 first place votes.

How the predictive metrics view BYU

Definition: Predictive metrics measure absolute strength of a team relative to the average team. Similar ratings are used by sports books to generate betting spreads.

SP+: 21

FPI: 20

FEI: 20

Average: 20.33 (Prior week: 15.25)

Before you freak out about BYU’s rating, there are clear tiers in the power ratings as well. The gap between #21 BYU and #12 USC are separated by a field goal in SP+, which is roughly the same gap as #21 BYU and #25 SMU. The gaps are small enough that BYU will have the opportunity to move up, especially if they show well in the first few weeks.

If you are tired of BYU eking out a living in close games, SP+ says this might be the season for you. BYU only has 2 games all season that have a projected spread of less than a touchdown: At TCU (BYU favored by 3) and at Utah (BYU favored by 2.6). Notre Dame is projected to be favored by 9 points in their trip to Provo. BYU is more than a touchdown favorite in the remaining 9 games. That’s an unusual spot for BYU to be, but it's also been earned by multiple seasons of winning, development, and retention. BYU ranks 17th in returning production. Only Houston (15th) returns more production than BYU among Big 12  teams.

Despite most of that production returning on defense (BYU ranks 6th), SP+ projects the offense (19th) will be slightly better than the defense (22nd) relative to the rest of the country.

Conclusion

BYU safety Matthias Leach runs out for Pop-Tarts Bowl
BYU safety Matthias Leach runs out for Pop-Tarts Bowl | BYU Photo

People think more of BYU than computers do, which isn’t too surprising. BYU won its fair share of close games last year and ranks in the lower half of the Power Four in team talent per 247 sports. For BYU to reach the playoffs in 2026, they need to impress the computers much the same way they need to impress the playoff committee: style points. BYU is more than a 10-point favorite in 7 of their 12 games this year. To move up, they will need to exceed expectations in games like that.

As far as the voters are concerned, there is a common refrain: they love Kalani Sitake, Bear Bachmeier, and LJ Martin. They are concerned about the wide receivers and life after Jay Hill. If BYU can prove those concerns unfounded early on, BYU-Notre Dame will be a top 10 match-up between undefeated teams in mid-October.

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Published
Joe Wheat
JOE WHEAT

Joe Wheat has covered BYU since 2020. He specializes in passionate opinions fueled by statistics and advanced analytics. Joe’s goal in writing is to celebrate the everyday fan by understanding what they are feeling and giving them the data to understand why.