ESPN's Latest Bracketology Nearly Has Cal in NCAA Tournament Field

Maybe we need to start changing our expectations about this season’s Cal basketball team.

The Golden Bears have not had a winning season since 2016-17, and when they were picked to finish 16th among 18 ACC teams in the preseason conference media poll, there were no thoughts of top-25 rankings or NCAA tournament berths.

But when ESPN’s Joe Lunardi speaks by way of Bracketology people listen. And it said something about the Golden Bears.

In his latest Bracketology projections of the 2026 NCAA tournament field posted Tuesday, Lunardi did not have Cal in the field, but Cal was listed among the First Four Out. That means the Bears would need to jump just three or four teams to be included.

Further exploration reveals that On3’s NCAA tournament projections have Cal in the field as one of the Last Four In, and would face Butler as an 11th seed in a First Four game.

Cal is not ranked in this week’s AP top-25, but the Bears did get 19 voting points, which would place them 30th, their highest placement of the season.

Cal also got votes in the coaches poll for the first time this season, coming in at the 31st slot.

The Bears’ NET ranking stands at No. 45, high enough earn consideration for an NCAA tournament berth.

What has Cal done to receive this optimistic view of Cal’s postseason chances?

Well, the Bears are 12-1, their best record after 13 games since starting 28-1 in 1959-60 when Cal reached the national title game. Cal is currently riding a nine-game winning streak, matching the Bears’ nine-game run of 2008-09 for the longest winning streak since that 1959-60 team won 19 in a row.

The Bears’ lone loss was a three-point road loss to Kansas State, and the Bears own a victory on a neutral court (Chase Center in San Francisco) over UCLA, which was ranked at the time but has since fallen out of the top 25 and is receiving fewer voting points than Cal in the AP poll.

Cal has not faced any team that is currently ranked, but that will change when the Bears open ACC play on December 30 at home against Louisville, which dropped five spots in the AP rankings this week but is still firmly in the top 25 at No. 16.

And Louisville freshman star Mikel Brown Jr., who missed the past two games with a back injury, is expected to return for the game against Cal.

That is followed by another Cal home game against Notre Dame (9-4) on January 2 before the Bears play their first conference road game against 21st-ranked Virginia on January 7.

Cal has played only one game on its opponent’s home court this season, and the Bears lost that one (Kansas State). After the next three games we’ll have a better idea whether this Cal team s really NCAA tournament material.

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