USA Today Predicts Cal’s First Loss Will Come Soon

Cal’s unbeaten run will end soon – at least that’s the opinion of USA Today Network’s Matt Hayes. who took on the task of predicting when each unbeaten team will suffer its first loss.

Cal is 3-0 heading into Saturday night’s game at San Diego State, and is one of 39 FBS teams that has yet to lose a game this season. Hayes ranked the 39 teams based on how much longer the team can go before tasting defeat, so Miami is No. 1 because USA Today predicts the Hurricanes will go unbeaten through the regular season.

The Golden Bears are down there at No. 26 because Hayes predicts they will lose their first game later this month. He expects Cal to get past San Diego State this week, and the Bears are 12.5-point favorites in that game.

However, he expects Cal to lose its ACC opener on Saturday, September 27, at Boston College. The Eagles are 1-2 and coming off a surprising 30-20 loss to Stanford, but Hayes implies that the distance the Bears must travel for that game will have an impact.

Here is his comment on Cal, along with the Bears’ strength-of-schedule ranking according to Sagarin:

26. California

Schedule: 118.

Where it ends: Sept. 27, at Boston College. A fun Cal team with exciting freshman quarterback Jaron Keawe-Sagapolutele (just call him JKS) traveling 3,083 miles to Chesnut Hill, Massachusetts, to play a football game. Ridiculous.

Presumably you could make a similar case for the reason Boston College lost to Stanford after the Eagles’ long trip to the West Coast.

Cal played pretty well last year in its five games in which it had to travel across at least two times zones. The Bears won at Auburn and at Wake Forest, and played well enough to win in close losses at Pitt (17-15) and at Florida State (14-9). The only long-distance game in which Cal looked like a tired team was its 38-6 loss to nationally ranked SMU in Dallas in the Bears' final regular-season game.

Picking Boston College to beat Cal makes sense if you look at ESPN’s College Football Power Index. Cal is ranked 10th in the ACC and Boston College is 11th in this week's ESPN FPI, and their numerical FPI ratings are similar, with Cal having a 2.5 FPI and Boston College at 2.0.

That small difference suggests a home team should be favored over a team making a cross-country trek for that game that starts at 3:30 p.m. Eastern time and 12:30 p.m. California time on a Saturday afternoon. Plus Boston College has the advantage of having a bye this week, giving it two weeks to prepare for Cal and two weeks to wash away the bad taste left by the loss to Stanford.

One thing is clear: Cal has a favorable schedule this season. The Bears are not scheduled to face any team that is ranked in this week’s AP poll, and they avoid four team expected to contend for the ACC title – Miami, Georgia Tech, Clemson and Florida State.

Cal’s objective this week is to get past San Diego State in the Bears' fourth and final nonconference game this season.

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