What Does a Rough Start Suggest for Coach Tosh Lupoi's Career Arc?

By any measure, Cal’s football season under first-year head coach Tosh Lupoi has fallen far short of what virtually everyone expected.

The Bears are 3-6 after losing their past three games by margins of 21, 39 and 34 points.

General manager Ron Rivera acknowledged on his weekly KNBR radio show that Lupoi, a first-time head coach with a five-year contract, “has bumped his head a lot.”

The Athletic published a story, with sources suggesting the program is “mired in chaos.” One Bay Area newspaper columnist said both Lupoi and Rivera appear "out of their depth."

Cal has a bye this weekend, which should allow Lupoi and his staff to continue searching for solutions while injured players get extra time to heal.

Beginning next Saturday, Cal will close the regular season with games at Virginia and at home vs. Stanford and Pitt. Win all three and the Bears land a low-level bowl game, a modest consolation.

Anything less than a season-ending sweep and they wind up with a losing record that will justifiably leave a sour taste in the mouths of Old Blues.

So what does it mean long-term?

Does this season, if it continues on its current course, spell certain doom for the remainder of Lupoi’s coaching term?

Certainly it can have damaging ramifications in terms of recruiting, player retention and booster giving. This is a different era in college football and Cal is fighting for its future as a program on an accelerated timeline.

Those very real issues aside, where can Lupoi’s program go from here?

Among Cal’s 21 coaches since Andy Smith arrived more than a century ago, 12 of them were leading a program for the first time.

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Just as Lupoi may be struggling with a learning curve in some departments, each of Cal’s other rookie coaches followed different paths. And winning or losing in their debut seasons didn’t always project their eventual level of success.

On the one hand, Jeff Tedford inherited a 1-10 team in 2002 and promptly assembled a 7-5 record. He went on become Cal’s winningest coach over 11 seasons.

Bruce Snyder came on board in 1987 and struggled through a 3-6-2 season. The Bears were 5-5-1 the next year and went 4-7 in Snyder’s third season. But Cal went 17-6-1 and won bowl games his final two seasons before the administration botched contract negotiations, allowing him to exit to Arizona State.

Likewise, Mike White’s first two teams in 1972 and ’73 compiled a record of 7-15. Then the Bears were 7-3-1 in 1974 and a year later fielded one of the nation’s most potent offenses while posting an 8-3 ledger. In the modern landscape, both of those teams would have played in bowl games.

Meanwhile, Snyder’s immediate predecessor, Joe Kapp, delivered a 7-4 record in his debut season of 1982, capped by the miracle of The Play in the Big Game. The rest was downhill, as Kapp’s final four teams went 13-30-1.

Pete Elliott became legendary coach Pappy Waldorf’s successor in 1957 and promptly went 1-9. A year later, against all odds, he directed the Bears to a Pacific Coast Conference title and what remains the program’s most recent Rose Bowl appearance.

Cal fans can always hope.

Here’s a look at how Cal coaches fared in their debut season and their eventual legacy:

Cal coaching records | College football reference

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