Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball 2025-26 Storylines: Arizona State Sun Devils

CINCINNATI — Two downtrodden Big 12 basketball teams battle each other in the Arizona desert on Saturday night. Cincinnati is taking on the Arizona State Sun Devils across a 10 p.m. ET tip on CBS Sports Network.

The Bearcats enter the game 10-9 overall and 2-4 in the Big 12 with a 54th overall ranking on KenPom. ASU is 10-9 overall and 1-5 in the Big 12 this season. They are 92nd on KenPom and hold a 37.7% chance to win the game on ESPN's Matchup Predictor.

Cincinnati is 2-2 against the Sun Devils since the start of the 1949-50 season, and these two teams are basically playing a January elimination game. UC has to win the rest of its games this regular season to have any realistic chance of making the NCAA Tournament.

Neil Paine's projections give Cincinnati a 5% chance to make the tournament as of this writing.

"I think every game in this league matters," UC head coach Wes Miller said after the 77-51 loss to No 1 Arizona on Wednesday. "You've got to prepare for everyone. All 18 of them are extremely important. I think we try to get ready for every single one, take them extremely seriously, and do everything we can to win. We'll do the same thing for the game against Arizona State on Saturday."

Cincinnati should have more access to Kerr Kriisa minutes in this game after he got on the floor for the first time in weeks during two minutes against Arizona.

Fastbreak Storyline: Wounded Animals

The 2025-26 season has not been kind to either of these programs. ASU head coach Bobby Hurley sounded downright defeated after his team's latest loss this week.

They've dropped the past three games by a combined 49 points, and represent very rare low-hanging fruit on the road for a Cincinnati team that needs to pick that tree clean in every remaining chance over the next two months.

“The light in the tunnel, it’s hard to see a lot of light,” Hurley said after the loss to West Virginia. “I love the group, though. This group is far different than some other teams that I’ve had that, at times, might have made me sick to my stomach. ... I’m failing. I can’t get through to the team.”

Cincinnati can beat this group in a similar way to how it took out Colorado: Limit fouls and turnovers and let the Sun Devils stab themselves.

ASU has not been good at really anything this season besides getting to the free-throw line (24.3 attempts per game, 53rd nationally) and forcing turnovers (13.7 forced per game, 79th). When those two things aren't happening for easier paths to points, the whole team crumbles. Cincinnati won't have to try to pace them up to a higher tempo, as ASU actually ranks higher in adjusted tempo on KenPom at 66th to UC's 122nd-pace ranking.

Three different players average at least 4.4 free throw tries per game, led by their top scorer in 6-1 guard Moe Odum (16.4 points, 6.5 assists) and 7-1 forward Massamba Diop (14.8 points, 5.5 rebounds). The former drives the offense, and the latter drives their defense.

Get either into their own foul trouble, and UC could win this game by double digits. Diop against Moustapha Thiam is going to be a fun battle between two of the Big 12's best shot blockers (Diop ranks fourth in blocks per game among Big 12 players, 1.8). All in all, ASU's opponents are fouling them 20.9 times per game (12th-most nationally).

That's over four more per game than the Bearcats average as one of the better foul discipline teams in the country. Now, the big roadblock to a UC win is how well ASU's opponents have shot against them from deep. Their foes are posting a 36% hit rate from outside (320th nationally) as one of the worst three-point defenses in the country.

Wide open, covered, in transition, off the bounce, off the catch, it doesn't matter what type of triple UC's shot this season, they don't go in enough. It's a huge reason why the team is hovering around .500. They are shooting a paltry 26.2% from deep in Big 12 play (easily the worst in the conference) and will be in another dogfight or blowout scenario the other way if they can't find a way to rattle home at least 8-10 triples.

"It was not one of our better offensive nights," UC head coach Wes Miller said after the team scored a season-low 51 points on Wednesday. "The rebounding was certainly a factor. We pride ourselves on that, and to give up 18 offensive rebounds is very frustrating. I'm not pleased overall, but it's the Big 12, you're on the road, and you've got to regroup and get ready for another game on Saturday."

It all plays out Saturday at 10 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.

Bookmark Bearcats Talk for the latest news, breakdowns, and so much more. Check out our YouTube page as well, starting with the video below.

Also, don't miss the podcast, Bearcat Blitz, wherever you get your shows!

Apple: http://apple.co/4fI26zj

Spotify: http://bit.ly/3OqvD4l

YouTube: http://bit.ly/414XiQ6

-----

Be sure to keep it locked in on Bearcats Talk, as we cover the trials and tribulations of the Big 12!

Follow Bearcats Talk on Twitter: @BearcatsTalk

Like Bearcats Talk on Facebook: Bearcats Talk