Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball 2025-26 Storylines: No. 1 Arizona Wildcats

CINCINNATI — Out of the frying pan and into the fire for Cincinnati Bearcats basketball. Wes Miller's team is trying to follow up its best win of his tenure with an even better one over No. 1 Arizona on the road Wednesday at 9 p.m. ET.

Cincinnati is 10-8 this season and 2-3 in the Big 12 after beating the then No. 2-ranked Iowa State Cyclones on Saturday, but that's in the rearview after UC flushed it by midnight that day. Arizona is undefeated this season and enters the game with a 91.4% chance to win the game on ESPN's Matchup Predictor.

The Wildcats are ranked second on KenPom to Cincinnati's 55th overall standing and hold a 5-0 record against the Bearcats with a plus-6.6 point differential.

UC can most likely lose just one more game this regular season, and that's it if they want to rise from the ashes and make the NCAA Tournament. Although beating Arizona on the road may lower that conference record threshold to 13-5 instead of 14-4, depending on how the rest of the league shakes out.

"I do think it's a really great quality win, and I'm glad our players get to feel that," Miller said after the 79-70 win over Iowa State. "I'm also very happy for our former players. We have a special former player contingent in this program. You can count on one hand how many programs have that. I'm happy for them. I got to see a couple on the court when I walked out to do the radio. I'm happy that our fans get to experience Cincinnati basketball playing at the level that it's supposed to tonight. So, I'm pleased for everybody there.”

Repeat The Cyclone Plan

Cincinnati finally put together 40 minutes against a really good team this past weekend with its top-20 overall talent pool compared to the rest of the nation. UC can hang with any team in the country with how it's playing right now.

They are still posting a top-10 defense by efficiency over the past 10 games, but they've raised the offense from outside the top 200 to 134th in efficiency on BartTorvik. That can keep them in the mix in every remaining Big 12 game, but a slight bump in offense and the same defense won't necessarily produce the needed wins on their own. Cincinnati has to continue rebounding and handling the ball at a high level as they did against ISU.

Cincinnati was plus-11 combined in TOs and rebounds Saturday, and they need another double-digit advantage against an even more balanced and well-rounded team. ISU is currently 19th in BartTorvik's overall ratings from the last 10 games, while Arizona is 5th. It's a slightly higher tier of difficulty, despite the AP Ranking bumping up just one spot game-to-game.

The depth and diversity of their offense and defense have a lot to do with that. Arizona has seven players averaging at least nine points and three averaging 14-plus, including freshman forward Koa Peat (14.7 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists), freshman guard Brayden Burries (14.3 points, 4.1 rebounds, 2.4 assists), and senior guard Jaden Bradley (14.1 points, 4.6 assists).

All three of those players can run offense, set up great looks, and get the pace pushed up the floor quickly. UC wants to run (106th in tempo), and Arizona wants to fly (25th in tempo), so the Bearcats won't throw them off with a high pace. ISU's lone weakness came back to bite them on Saturday, shooting 17-27 from the foul line (68.1% this season, 305th nationally). Arizona has no weaknesses like that; the only thing UC could maybe exploit is continued turnovers.

The Wildcats cough up 11.9 possessions per game (183rd), and Cincinnati needs that mark to be much closer to 15 than 11 to maximize their shot diet and give them as many chances to keep up as possible. Sencire Harris, Jizzle James, and Day Day Thomas will have to combine for another great showing in the floor game. Active hands from them, and packed up offensive possessions on the other end, are crucial.

U of A still has a plus turnover margin despite that minor weak spot, and they dominate the boards better than almost every team in the country (59.25% rebound rate, third nationally behind Florida and Michigan State).

Winning the glass is going to be harder than it has in any other UC game this season. Even in their single-digit wins this season, Arizona is still winning the glass, including against the aforementioned Gators, who lead the nation in rebound rate. Florida kept the score and the glass battle very close (93-87 loss, 36-38 rebounds), and it's no coincidence that those were correlated.

The Wildcats will run in transition and rip Cincinnati apart if they get 40-plus rebounds in this game. UC is a bad shooting team, hitting 42.7% on the season (303rd nationally) and in conference play (12th in Big 12), meaning executing on the margins like it did Saturday is the best path to another upset chance.

Cincinnati can get back to 3-3 on the Big 12 slate if they pull off more history. It would mark the first time since the 2011-12 season that the program won multiple top 10 matchups.

Catch the game at 9 p.m. ET on FS1.

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