Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball 2025-26 Storylines: No. 25 UCF Knights

CINCINNATI — UC continues its two-game Big 12 road trip week on Sunday in a 5 p.m. ET battle against No. 25 UCF.

Wes Miller's team is 0-2 in Big 12 play and at risk of falling to .500 on the season if they can't upset the Knights in Florida. UCF enters the game with a 62.4% chance to win on ESPN's Matchup Predictor. They are ranked 44th on KenPom, while UC is ranked 66th.

Miller sounded exasperated following Tuesday's 62-60 loss to West Virginia. It pushed Cincinnati to 0-6 in Quad 1/2 games this season and 0-6 as a betting underdog.

"We get to come out and play basketball. I don't care about the noise. I don't care what people think," Miller said on the 700 WLW broadcast postgame show. "I only care about my team, and I care about my program. And you know what? It's almost comical. We'll get a break. We just have to stay together. It's us against the whole world. We know that we're gonna get a break.

"We're gonna keep going, period, period. I'll answer any questions you guys want. Everybody can quit on us. Everybody, I hear it. Everybody, go ahead. Us against the world."

Cincinnati enters this game 17-6 all-time against the Knights.

Fastbreak Storyline: Can Cincinnati Close A Game?

The late-game woes have destroyed Cincinnati's season so far. They have been within at least three points of the lead in the final five minutes of all six Q1/Q2 losses and the Eastern Michigan defeat, but they haven't had anyone take the bull by the horns and finish the fight.

Sunday figures to be another tight game scenario between two very similar teams. UCF has one of the best offenses in the Big 12, averaging 86.9 points (32nd nationally) and sitting 35th in KenPom's adjusted efficiency. They like to run just like Cincinnati (both top 95 in adjusted tempo) and are a balanced scoring outfit, propping up four players averaging at least 12 points.

Riley Kugel (14.1 points, three rebounds) is a player UC will have to match if there is crunchtime here. UCF's dynamic weapon is the top driver of action at UCF, ranking 10th in the Big 12 with a 26.1% usage rate. The former Mississippi State and Florida guard can command the floor at 6-5, 207 pounds, posting 15-plus points in 10/14 games so far. UC needs to keep him near his rather inefficient 47.8% effective field goal rate, or this offense could go nuclear.

UC's ninth-ranked defense on KenPom will have something to say about that. The two-point war here will decide a lot. UCF loves to get to the rim and thrive off offensive rebounds from short misses. The Knights are 24th nationally in made twos (22.7 per game) and snag an eye-popping 14.4 offensive rebounds per game.

UC is allowing just 15.1 made twos this season (21st nationally).

It's another long team like West Virginia, led on the glass by 6-8 forward Jamichael Stillwell (12.2 points, 8.5 rebounds) and 7-2 forward John Bol (6.1 points, 4.5 rebounds). Baba Miller (10.9 rebounds per game) will likely need plenty of help from his teammates while smashing the glass himself.

UCF outrebounds its opponents consistently, ranking 19th nationally with a 56.6% rebound rate and 40.3 rebounds per game overall (41st). If Cincinnati can't stay within five on the glass, then it may not get to a close contest at any point in the final five minutes.

"We made them make tough shots," Miller said about the scoring drought to close Tuesday's loss. "Well, other teams are good too. So we got to make a play at the end of the game, and the first step is not turning it over. Well, tonight we didn't do that, but we got to jump up and make a play. And if we don't, if we don't make it, we've got to go get it off the board."

Baba Miller added another seven rebounds to stay consistent on that front Tuesday night, but he's scored just 15 total points in two conference games thus far.

Whether it's him, Jizzle James (12 points total, 4-20 shooting in conference), Day Day Thomas (24 points on 7-20 shooting), or some other mystery candidate, someone has to find a consistent scoring button to press when these games get tight.

That lack of killer offensive instinct from anyone on the roster is a big reason why UC sits at 216th nationally in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency (their lowest ranking of the century).

The game tips off at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN2.

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