Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Keys to the Game: Iowa State Cyclones

Two of the best defenses in the country, in consecutive games for UC.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Feb 12, 2024 8:50 AM EST

In this story:

CINCINNATI — The ping-ponging Big 12 results continue for Cincinnati as it tries to avoid back-to-back home losses in Tuesday's bout against No. 14 Iowa State.

The Cyclones bring a similar physical style that the Bearcats just lost to in Houston. ISU is ranked ninth in the NET and KenPom as of this writing, while Cincinnati is 34th in the NET and 32nd on KenPom.

Cincinnati is 4-2 in the regular season against ISU since 1949 and enters this game with a 40.4% chance to win on ESPN's Matchup Predictor.

When ISU Has The Ball

Balance inside the perimeter.

That's what Cincinnati must disrupt against one of the more diverse offenses they've faced this season. The Cyclones move the ball extremely well (17 assists per game, 23rd nationally) thanks to sound guard play from Keshon Gilbert (13.9 Pts, 4.7 Reb, 4.2 Ast) and Tamin Lipsey (13.2 Pts, 5.0 Reb, 5.6 Ast).

Day Day Thomas, Jizzle James, Simas Lukošius, and John Newman III will need to disrupt initial actions from those two and drive possessions deep into the shot clock. This is an ISU team that likes to hunt shots close to the rim and quickly (166th nationally in adjusted tempo).

Lukošius and other hybrid wing players like Dan Skillings and CJ Fredrick get their fun task in freshman 6-foot-8 forward Milan Momcilovic (12.6 Pts, 3.4 Reb, 1.2 Ast). He's going to pressure those wings at the second level and impact the frontcourt equation as well.

ISU leans into efficient two-point shots from that trio and more to drive its offense (53.2% inside the arc, 93rd nationally, 21.3 makes, 30th nationally). The attacking mentality leads to a bunch of free throws as well (23.2 FTA per game, 26th nationally).

Cincinnati cannot commit sloppy fouls and put the Cyclones into the bonus early in each half. Build the wall up front with Aziz Bandaogo as the main defense and force them to make threes (18.8 attempts per game, 306th nationally). That should swing the possession tally in the Bearcats' favor as the better rebounding team (41-35 per game advantage for UC).

When Cincinnati Has The Ball

Ball-handling discipline.

Cincinnati's guards have to be on point with their possession in a game against one of the five best defenses in the country (third nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, 62.1 PPG allowed, seventh). Iowa State forces an astounding 17.4 turnovers per game (third most nationally), powered by those pesky guards in Lipsey (three steals per game, first in Big 12) and Gilbert (1.7 steals per game).

Those two, along with wing reinforcements, hound opponents all game long, force constant pressure, and get even more easy transition rim looks because of it. History says this is a fulcrum part of Tuesday's game, given Cincinnati ranks just 11th in the Big 12 with 15.4 turnovers per game.

The rebounding advantage will be wiped out if Cincinnati can't consistently take care of the basketball. Turning that ball pressure around into ISU fouls could be the best way to turn that dial down in the second half.

Bottomline: The ball cannot get stuck in the half-court as ISU swarms.

Getting CJ Fredrick back in the mix a bit on Saturday was huge for his ability to ramp up more and make a noticeable impact in that ball pinging (ISU is allowing 14.3 assists per game in conference, 10th).

Prediction: 66-65 Cincinnati

A down-to-the-wire thriller at Fifth Third Arena.

Cincinnati continues to maintain a foothold in the NCAA Tournament race with a bounce-back win that features just eight turnovers and a nice outside-shooting performance from CJ Fredrick.

Viktor Lakhin also bounces back as one of four Bearcats to score in double figures across a balanced, hard-fought win.

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