Cincinnati Bearcats guard Jeremiah Davenport (24) shoots from three point range in the first half of the NCAA American Athletic Conference basketball game between the Cincinnati Bearcats and the Memphis Tigers at Fifth Third Arena in Cincinnati on Tuesday, Feb. 15, 2022. Memphis Tigers At Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball — © Sam Greene/Cincinnati Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

Preview Paw Prints: Memphis Tigers

Cincinnati has lost four of its past five games against Penny Hardaway's crew.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Jan 20, 2023 8:14 AM EST

In this story:

CINCINNATI — Mid-January has passed and Cincinnati (14-6, 4-2) is in a similar position as last year, with Memphis (14-5, 4-2) rolling into Fifth Third Arena on Sunday.

One could argue this is the biggest two-game stretch of the Wes Miller era.

Beat Memphis and No. 1 Houston, and you vault yourself right in the mix for an NCAA Tournament bid. Lose both, and those dreams are dead outside of a miraculous conference tournament run. Memphis enters having won three of its past four games.

The Tigers are ranked 37th on KenPom, while Cincinnati is 72nd. ESPN's Matchup Predictor has Cincinnati winning 60% of the time.

Memphis has won four of the past five meetings to answer a six-game losing streak against Cincinnati.

American Defense

Cincinnati Bearcats forward Ody Oguama (33) blocks Detroit Mercy Titans forward Jordan Phillips (12) in the first half of the NCAA men s basketball game at Fifth Third Arena in Cincinnati on Wednesday, Dec. 21, 2022. Ncaa Basketball Detroit Mercy Titans At Cincinnati Bearcats — © Albert Cesare / The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

Wes Miller's vision is getting clearer and clearer each day he's at the helm. Cincinnati is starting to add consistent defense to its high offensive ceiling.

In conference play, UC's allowing just 65.1 PPG (second). They rank top-three conference-wide in categories like FG% (third), two-point % (first), three-point % (third), free throw attempts allowed (third), steals (third), and forced turnovers (first).

Miller's patented man-to-man concepts are flourishing with his mix of talent this season. The insertion of Ody Oguama as a starter has defined roles for each player.

These strong trends need to continue against Memphis. Penny Hardaway's team sports an efficient offense that's second among AAC teams in scoring (79 PPG), first in FG% (47.1%), and first in assists (15.7).

That's going to start with slowing down AAC-leading scorer Kendric Davis on the perimeter. Cincinnati's guards have done a fantastic job hampering their lead peers on the other side.

Of the six top-10 AAC scorers UC's faced, four have finished shooting below 45% from the floor.

Skilling Up

Cincinnati Bearcats guard Daniel Skillings (0) lays the ball up as Cleveland State Vikings guard JaMir Price (5) looks on in the first half of the men s NCAA basketball game between the Cincinnati Bearcats and the Cleveland State Vikings at Fifth Third Arena in Cincinnati on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2022. Cleveland State Vikings At Cincinnati Bearcats — © Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

UC has had a significant impact from its freshman forwards this season, none more so than Dan Skillings. He just posted his second-best game of the season and his best outing against top-150 competition.

The long forward had 11 points, 1 rebound, 2 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block against South Florida. He was 3-of-5 on two-point shots and showed great aggression at the rim.

"I feel real confident when I drive to the basket," Skillings said. "My teammates give me that confidence by coaxing that confidence. Just telling me to keep going and keep that green light to be aggressive.

"Make smart plays for the team and don't force anything and things like that. So I've been really confident this year going to the basket, trying to draw fouls, or just getting easy buckets for the team."

Skillings struggled mightily to shoot the ball early on this season, and things may be turning a corner. He's shot 50% on 6 shots per night over the past three games, all while doubling his average game score compared to the first 16 games of his career.

If the freshman can be a more reliable scoring option—while continuing to make key defensive stops—then Cincinnati will keep improving along with him.

Downhill Davis

The Memphis Tigers forward DeAndre Williams (12) talks to teammate Kendric Davis (3) during a game against the ECU Pirates on Jan. 7, 2022 at the Fedex Forum in Memphis. Memphis Tigers vs ECU Pirates — © Stu Boyd II-The Commercial Appeal / USA TODAY NETWORK

Davis (21.2 Pts, 3.6 Reb, 5.7 Ast) leads the AAC in scoring through an unconventional route. The SMU transfer is pacing toward another Player of the Year campaign with drives and free throws.

Davis shoots just 40% from the floor but is hitting 46% of his two-point shots on 10.5 attempts per game. Thankfully for the whole AAC, he hasn't found his outside form (30.3%, 5.2 tries per game). Although, he hit 6-of-10 triples in the last two games.

Davis has scored 30-pus points three times this season and is a fantastic passer on top of the points ceiling. Cincinnati cannot let him start rumbling toward the basket. That leads to open kick outs, free throw attempts (Davis: 7.7 attempts, 87%), and huge problems for the UC defense.

When Davis isn't finishing a possession, it's usually veteran forward Deandre Williams (16.4 Pts, 7.6 Reb, 2.4 Ast). The seniors are combining for a whopping 57% usage rate this season. Plus, they're the only Tigers with a box plus/minus greater than five (Davis: 7.1, Williams: 8.1)

Williams is a board monster at 6-foot-9 190 pounds. He just ripped up Wichita State with 29 points and a career-high 15 rebounds. The 29 points were his second-most in college.

He makes his impact on the interior just like Davis. Williams can hit from deep (39.8% career outside shooter) but takes less than two per game as an inside operator. Viktor Lakhin is coming off his worst game of the season, after fouling out against South Florida.

A nice bounce-back performance from the Russian is needed, especially defensively, where Lakhin swatted 8 shots in the game before last.

Catch the game at 1 p.m. ET this Sunday on ESPN2. It's available on fuboTV—start your free trial here.

Make sure you bookmark All Bearcats for the latest news, exclusive interviews, film breakdowns and so much more.

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