Cincinnati Bearcats Football Keys To The Game: Baylor Bears

CINCINNATI — The Homecoming festivities are nearly here for the No. 21-ranked Cincinnati Bearcats Football team. UC is taking on the Baylor Bears at home this weekend as they continue pursuing a Big 12 Championship game appearance.

Cincinnati enters the 4 p.m. ET Saturday contest on ESPN as 3.5-point betting favorites with a point spread sitting at 66.5. UC has a 67.5% chance to win on ESPN's Matchup Predictor. They are ranked 34th in ESPN's Football Power Index, while Baylor is 48th.

The Bearcats are 0-1 all-time against Baylor, losing to them in 2023.

"Looking forward to this week, playing Baylor, a very talented team," UC head coach Scott Satterfield said on Tuesday."Coach [Dave Aranda] has done a great job with this team. Last year, when they won six in a row to finish the season, and this year, they have been in every game, lost some very close games as well. Outstanding offense, number one passing offense in the country.

"The quarterback, outstanding player. They have some great talent on the outside with some wide receiver play and good running back. Aggressive defense, that has done a really nice job on that side of the ball as well, and I think the special teams are very, very solid. They’re a complete team. It'll take a great effort out of our guys this week in practice to be ready to go play this team.”

The Bearcats are trying to boost their 10.7% chance to win the conference from ESPN with a victory over another traditional Big 12 power.

Offensive Key To The Game: Ain't Broke Don't Fix It

This matchup is really brutal for the Baylor Bears' defense, which has been abysmal in basically every way this season. They are a slightly better version of the lowly OK State unit Cincinnati hung 49 points on last week.

Cincinnati should be able to dictate the pace and tone of the game in multiple ways on this side of the ball. Baylor allows 31.4 PPG (118th nationally) and is just as bad in the underlying analytics. The Bears rank 82nd in EPA/rush allowed, 91st in EPA/dropback allowed, and 119th in dropback success rate allowed.

Brendan Sorsby should have a field day against a defense that's also posted just eight sacks (122nd nationally). He's having one of the best seasons ever by a UC quarterback (leads the Big 12 in yards per completion at 14.4, ranks third in the Big 12 and seventh in the nation in passer rating at 174.4).

It's helped the UC offense stay at No. 2 in the nation in yards per play (7.72), ranking fifth nationally in both yards per rush (6.05) and pass efficiency (177.57).

“I think it goes back to preparation and trusting your guys as well, and knowing that not everything has to be, you know, a pass on third and long necessarily," Sorsby said this week about how the offense gets into such quick rhythms. "We had a couple of third-and-long conversions throughout the game, which ended up being huge for us. Preparation and trusting your guys is all it comes down to.

"Seeing the defense is film studies throughout the week, and they're going to do different stuff throughout the game that you might not be prepared for. Just trust what you’re seeing out there, and let it rip.”

I just don't see how the Baylor defense slows any of this down through the air or on the ground.

“I'm looking at the film, and I’m watching their defense," Satterfield said about the Bears. "I think their defense is very good. I'm trying to find the yards that they're giving up, because you start watching these cut-ups and they're not really giving up a lot, it doesn’t look like it to me. I think they're very sound. Their D-line is good, and number zero [Jackie Marshall] is a really good player. Number 11 [Keaton Thomas] is an outstanding linebacker, an All-Big 12 linebacker.

"They're athletic in the back end, but they have given up some points. However, they're in every game. Like last week, you're watching that game. It was three minutes to go. They're down 21, and you think now this game is over with, but TCU fumbles. They pick it up, run it in, they get an onside kick, but they're really right back in the game, it’s incredible. A lead is never not good enough. Especially against this team, the way they can move the ball, and the way they can score. It’s a scary team.”

Even turnovers, which could level the playing field here, are a major advantage for Cincinnati (just four lost this season, ranking seventh nationally; Baylor ranks 87th with just seven gained).

It would take a major loss of form on that front for Cincinnati or major injuries to keep this offense from hanging at least 37 points again (37.9 PPG this season, ranking 15th nationally).

Defensive Key To The Game: Limit Big, Big Plays

The Baylor offense leads the nation in passing yards this season by a comfortable margin at 344.3 yards per game, but they've been far from super-efficient.

Sawyer Robertson drives the train with his arm, but they still rank outside the top-55 nationally in dropback EPA (56th) and rushing EPA (58th). They mine a lot of their points out of big plays down the field, posting 20 plays of 30-plus yards this season.

If Cincinnati can continue doing a good job limiting those big plays and keeping offenses in front of them, the opportunities to score are going to get dicey for Baylor. UC has only allowed 11 plays of 30-plus yards this season (54th nationally).

"This quarterback at Baylor is looking to throw the ball down the field," Satterfield said about the offense. "They do get rid of the ball pretty quickly. They have some really good weapons on the outside. You have to defend it a little bit differently. So that defensively, you don't have to worry about the quarterback taking off and running and getting yards from you.

"There's different things that we have to worry about, the accuracy that he has, the strong arm that he has, the ability to throw the ball down the field in tight windows, where maybe the last two opponents couldn't do that. There are just some differences that you're going to have to defend more than if you run.”

The red zone is also going to play a major factor for the UC defenders. Baylor can go on long drives and boasts a 53.5% quality drive rate (18th nationally) and has been to the red zone 32 times this season (24th).

Unfortunately for Baylor, they've been slopping it up inside the 20s (62.5% RZ TD rate, 70th nationally). We all know how strong UC's red-zone defense has been this season, and there's little reason to think it will fall off as all the pieces stay healthy and keep growing (47.83% TD rate allowed, 16th nationally).

It's a brutal matchup on both sides of the ball for Dave Aranda's team.

Prediction: 41-28 Bearcats

Season Prediction Record: 6-1

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