Cincinnati Bearcats Football Keys To The Game: No. 24 Utah Utes

CINCINNATI — The Biggest game of the 2025 season so far is nearly here for UC football. Scott Satterfield's team can continue to control its destiny in the Big 12 with a road win over No. 24 Utah on Saturday night.

These two schools have never clashed on the football field, and oddsmakers are heavily leaning toward the Utes to win the late-night kickoff. Cincinnati enters the game as 10.5-point underdogs with a point total sitting at 54.5.

It's their largest underdog betting spread this season, with ESPN's Football Power Index giving Utah an 80.5% chance to win and hand Cincinnati its first conference loss.

The Utes are getting star quarterback Devon Dampier back for this game, while the Bearcats won't have leading rusher Evan Pryor due to injury.

"Dampier's their guy, and he's healthy, and we anticipate him playing," Satterfield said this week. "But now for them, they have to feel really good about the fact that they got another guy that can put in there, and had an outstanding game, and he was a Big 12 Player of the Week this past week. So, I think it's what they do. Scheme-wise, you just have to defend that whole offense for the first time this year against what most of the metrics say. It's a Top-10 defense. One of the challenges is that they have a high stop rate. They're good at getting three-and-outs.”

Cincinnati has paths to pulling this upset. Let's dive into how.

Offensive Key To The Game: Efficient As Possible

Brendan Sorsby and the Bearcats' offense face the best defense they've battled with all season on Saturday. The Utes are brick-wall solid in basically every facet on that side of the ball.

They rank 11th nationally in total success rate allowed this season and bring a nasty pass coverage to the table (14th nationally in EPA/dropback allowed). In traditional stats, they allow just 5.5 yards per attempt (eighth nationally) and a 52.6% completion rate (third).

A suffocating group that's buoyed by a defensive front that's arguably the Big 12's best (44.1% pressure rate, first nationally to go with the 10th-best sack EPA created at 3.13 sacks per game). It's likely going to take the best career games from Sorsby and his offensive linemen to keep a very good offense on schedule.

“They have two tall, strong, defensive ends on the edge," Satterfield said about the daunting unit. "I think one of them may be one of the top stat guys in the country, the other one. I mean, he looks and runs like a linebacker. Then two big linebackers on the inside as well that can move, and then some outstanding DBs, and they put pressure on you. I'm watching the Colorado game, and I feel like they pressured them all night. They lived in the backfield, so they constantly put pressure on the offense, and you have to do a great job of trying to stay on the sticks and not get in those long situations. Because if you do, then they've got you.

"I think part of that is playing clean football. I think in this environment, it was challenging anyway, it was loud, for your offense, and for us, very similar, probably our first game against an arena that loud. So you have to stay on the sticks. You have to stay where you can get those down and distances manageable. Then we got to do a great job of being able to do both running and passing. I think these guys do a great job of passing as one of the top pass-defensive teams in the country. And I think a lot of it has to do with the pressure they put on here.”

Pair that defense with a ball-control Utah offense on the other side (28th nationally in time of possession this season), and Sorsby has to maximize each possession into points. The Bearcats may only get five or six chances to have the ball, especially if Utah takes an early lead.

Cincinnati has to start fast, get elite play from its QB and offensive line, and force this Utah offense to pass, while also giving that nasty pass rush fewer chances to pin its ears back and cook.

It's a lot to overcome on the road, but a path is there, especially if the defense can stay hot. Utah has ironically lost back-to-back games when hosting College Gameday.

Defensive Key To The Game: Clear Turnover Battle Win

The Bearcats have a 4-0 turnover advantage in the past two games and should have a great shot to win if they can make it 6-0 across three outings on Saturday night.

It's probably not shocking to hear Utah takes great care of the football. The Utes have only committed eight turnovers this season, and their mauling offensive line is a big reason why. Utah ranks just behind Cincinnati at 14th nationally in offensive success rate this season.

They smash teams off the ball, ranking second nationally in rushing yards created before contact, and are top 25 nationally in pressure rate and sack EPA allowed. There are not many signs that Cincinnati will be able to get any pressure on Dampier, but they have to find a way to.

The Bearcats have one of the worst pass rushes in the country (115 in pressure rate, 102nd in sack EPA created). It's hard to expect Utah to put the ball in harm's way very often if Dampier isn't under duress. Without a couple of turnovers, Utah could move the ball at will.

The Utes rank 18th in quality drive rate to UC's 105th slotting on the other side and 13th in the amount of points on those drives (UC sits 53rd). Cincinnati is way higher on the points allowed front because of that nasty red-zone defense (76.92% scoring rate allowed, 22nd).

Unfortunately, Utah is even more efficient on the flip side, ranking fourth nationally with an 80.56% RZ TD rate.

"We played some quarterbacks that can really run," Satterfield said about the Utah offense. "Throughout the season, other than last week, most everybody can move, in terms of the quarterbacks. Last week, that quarterback was not much of a runner, although he did try to take off a few times. Now, we have four games left, three of the four are quarterbacks who can run and move. So, it’s something we hopefully can be prepared for.”

It's a really tall mountain for UC to climb on the road against a hungry team getting its starting quarterback back on the field.

Prediction: 30-27 Utes

Season Prediction Record: 7-1

All advanced stats via CFBGraphs.com

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