Cincinnati Bearcats Football Keys To The Game: UCF Knights

CINCINNATI — It's time for another round of blows between the Cincinnati Bearcats football team and the UCF Knights. UC won a low-scoring matchup last season and carries a four-game winning streak into Saturday's game at Nippert Stadium, kicking off at noon ET on FS1.

Cincinnati is a 10.5-point betting favorite in the contest with a point total set at 55.5. ESPN's Matchup Predictor has UC winning 70.1% of the time as the 38th-ranked team in the Football Power Index. UCF sits at 56th.

"Central Florida is a team that we're very familiar with," UC head coach Scott Satterfield noted this week. "When I was at Louisville, we played them a couple times, and obviously played them since we've been here. I think every time we've played them, it's always one of the faster teams you're going to play based on overall team speed. When you think about all three phases, you turn on the tape, those guys are rolling, and they play extremely hard; they play fast. They have a lot of talent, and they certainly have a team that can go out and win any game they play. Last week, if they don’t get stopped on the one-yard line at Kansas, that game is probably going to overtime.

"We basically did the same thing against Kansas, had to score right there at the end. He has a very talented team, a team that, after you get a couple of losses, your back’s against the wall, they'll come out fighting for sure. Then for us, I feel like each and every week's a new season in this conference, each week presents new challenges. Obviously, the challenge is to come back and then have a great week of practice in preparation this week against a really talented UCF team.”

UC is trying to retake the all-time series lead on Saturday as it sits tied at 5-5.

Offensive Key To The Game: Road Grade Em

The game plan is pretty simple in this one: Make the Knights slow down your rushing attack and dominate time of possession.

Cincinnati has one of the best rushing attacks in the nation right now, with three deadly rushers to choose from and keep defenses on their heels. They rank second nationally in yards per play as an offense (8.03) and second in yards per carry (6.58). The offensive line is coming off its best game of the season, is healthy, and has a tasty matchup on deck.

The Knights rank 86th nationally in rush yards per game allowed (155) and 118th nationally in EPA/rush allowed (UC 17th in EPA/rush). It just sets up to be a brutal issue for UCF to slow down, especially with key defensive tackle Horace Lockett out with an injury.

"We all know offensive linemen, they don't really get to touch the ball, they don't score touchdowns, they don't get the big-time accolades, but if the offense is having success, then they get to reap some of those rewards," Satterfield said about the offensive line. "That's what's happening. Our offense has been really doing well; we're running the football, we're throwing it, we're scoring points. I'm glad to see that our offensive line is getting the recognition that they've gotten, because I do think they've been playing really well. They're playing physical. They take pride in not giving up any kind of, you know, pressures or tackles for loss.”

I wouldn't be shocked if Cincinnati touched 300 yards rushing in this game as a clear spam option all afternoon long. UCF is a putrid tackling team (111th in missed tackle rate), and cannot defend designed runs for the life of them (82nd in QB designed run EPA allowed).

UCF has been better at limiting consistent successful runs, but with how many holes Cincinnati's offensive line is opening up right now, a few big plays are bound to happen (UC ranks 15th nationally with 37 10-plus yard rushes this season).

"I love those guys up front," UC quarterback Brendan Sorsby said this week. "They take really good care of me. I have to continue to return the favor in some shape or form. Those guys are doing a really good job up front. Hats off to those guys for their preparation. They're a really talented group, and they're playing really well together right now, so we just have to find a way to keep it up.”

A dominant rushing day will just open up the passing attack even more and should pace Cincinnati past the 30-point mark for the fifth-straight game.

The 2020 team is the last UC outfit to score 30-plus points that many times in a row.

Defensive Key To The Game: Keep Owning The Red Zone

Another brutal matchup for UCF faces the Knights on this side of the ball.

The QB situation is completely up in the air right now, but no matter who starts, it's a long shot that they perform very well in this game. Starter Tayven Jackson ranks 86th nationally in ESPN QBR through five games (51.7 overall), while his potential replacement, Cam Fancher, is even worse (39.7 ESPN QBR).

Despite the QB issues, the rushing attack has been close to mediocre, led by former UC running back Myles Montgomery. They are posting a 44.5% success rate on the ground (78th nationally) and doing a good job staying ahead of the chains on early downs, something UC does not do well defending.

That could lead to a few longer drives than UC fans would like to see, but that's where the red zone acumen comes into play. UCF is horrific operating in the red area. They sit 119th nationally in points per quality drive rate and are scoring touchdowns on 44.44% of their RZ trips (129th nationally).

Defenses sell out for the run in these spots, and the QBs haven't been able to take advantage of that extra attention. It would be pretty shocking to see Fancher or a banged-up Jackson figure that out against a UC defense whose biggest strength pops up inside the 20-yard line (47% TD rate allowed in RZ, 25th nationally).

UCF does have a very good special teams unit (seventh-best PFF special teams grade this season), including an elite kicker that should help them get a respectable point number on the board.

Prediction: 38-24 Bearcats

Season Prediction Record: 4-1

All advanced stats courtesy CFB Graphs.

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