Game Preview: Cincinnati Rekindles West Virginia Rivalry in Big 12

The two former Big East teams haven't battled since West Virginia joined the Big 12 over a decade ago.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Updated:
Nov 16, 2023 9:05 AM EST

In this story:

CINCINNATI — UC football is trying to build some momentum as the season closes. The program turns its sights on its first Big 12 win over an entrenched member, plus, a chance to start chipping away at a lopsided rivalry with West Virginia.

The Mountaineers are 4-3 in the Big 12 this season as they beat preseason expectations to have a nice 2023 run so far. Now, the nation's seventh-best rushing team is looking to push this all-time series to 17-3-1 in favor of WVU.

"We talked about West Virginia being a team that Cincinnati has a history with and have played a lot of ball against," UC head coach Scott Satterfield said about the matchup. "We have not done very well, according to the stats here playing West Virginia but I do think this will be a natural rivalry as we move forward into the Big 12. A team that is certainly very close to us on this side on the East Coast. Both fan bases and both programs, this is going to be a great game that we will be playing each and every year.”

Cincinnati is a 6.5-point road underdog on Saturday with 89% of the bets on WVU to cover that spread. ESPN's matchup predictor gives Cincinnati a 34.1% chance to win.

When West Virginia Has The Ball

This could be one of the fastest game times of the entire season for UC as they face another outfit ranked among the top 10 nationally in rushing yards per game (213.8).

The Mountaineers drive offense through the legs of running backs C.J. Donaldson (755 yards and 10 TDs on 4.7 yards per carry), and Jaheim White (455 yards and two TDs on 7.7 yards per carry), plus, quarterback Garrett Greene (451 yards and eight TDs on 5.2 yards per carry). Those three are all graded as top-five players on the team by PFF.

Donaldson has run like one of the best running backs in the country this season, ranking 27th nationally among all running backs in rushing grade (85.9). The other two are picking great rushing lanes and making moves as well with both grading 75-plus on the ground. It's helped overcome some shaky blocking to still pace most teams in the country.

Center Zach Frazier and Wyatt Milum have blocked well, but UC's strong defensive front could disrupt this unit with disciplined gap-filling and great tackling. All three heads of this rushing monster have forced at least 20 missed tackles this season.

"West Virginia has one of the best centers in the country," Satterfield said about Frazier. "He does an outstanding job, he’s strong, plays with great balance, and always seems to be in a great position. Of course, Dontay Corleone and the guys up on the front line, do an outstanding job with our D line. This game will be fun if you like watching the big guys up front that's going to be the matchup to watch for sure.”

Greene is a far better runner than a passer, completing 51% of his passes with 12 touchdowns to just three interceptions. He's avoided turnovers and has WVU ranked 39th in 30-plus yard passes (18) to help level out that shaky completion rate.

The rushing prowess has made head coach Neal Brown willing to get risky and go for it on 31 fourth downs this season (eighth nationally) with a 51.6% conversion rate (66th) to Cincinnati's 39.2% mark (107th). It's factored heavily into the Mountaineers' offensive success (30.3 PPG, 46th)

An upset is on the table if Cincinnati's front can avoid missed tackles in the run game and play solid with deep coverage for the second consecutive week.

When UC Has The Ball

If Cincinnati doesn't turn the ball over on Saturday it should have a great chance to post 30-plus points on a defense ranked 80th or worse in multiple key metrics.

The run defense is nothing to write home about as WVU allows 4.46 yards per carry (96th), 5.86 yards per play overall (89th), 27.8 PPG (83rd nationally), and has allowed seven rushing plays of 30-plus yards (94th nationally). Corey Kiner, Myles Montgomery, and the rest of that room have rattled off some massive runs in recent weeks and that's on the table again Saturday.

They have done a good job of intercepting teams with PFF's top-graded player on the defense, Beanie Bishop (80.1 overall, 81 in coverage), leading the way. The cornerback ranks second in the Big 12 with four interceptions and he's a guy who's made plays all over the formation switching sides game-to-game.

Time to throw shouldn't be much of an issue for Emory Jones or Brady Lichtenberg as they try to guide a win. No WVU player boasts more than four sacks this season, with the team grading out at 69.9 overall on PFF at getting quarterback pressure (80th nationally).

Red-zone issues shouldn't be a big problem, either. The Mountaineers rank among the middle of the pack in TD rate allowed (61.7%) and total attempts (34 allowed).

Prediction: 28-27 Cincinnati

Give me the better defensive front and a secondary trending up in this matchup. UC has proven that it can perform well on the road with two of its three wins this season outside Nippert Stadium.

Now, this environment will be much closer to Oklahoma State's crowd than Houston's, but I still like UC to continue staying disciplined and will this win on the ground as the defense stays strong during late downs and forces a couple of extra stops to post back-to-back Big 12 triumphs.

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