What the Florida State Loss Means for Clemson

Florida State’s upset loss may have shaken up the ACC, but Clemson still faces a long and narrow path to redemption.

Clemson looks to rebound after early struggles as FSU’s loss creates a sliver of ACC opportunity. | Ken Ruinard / USA Today Network South Carolina / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

With the Clemson Tigers on a bye week, Florida State’s upset loss against Virginia this past Friday turned a lot of heads, especially in the ACC.

The Seminoles, ranked No. 8 in the country, were, and still are expected to be one of the biggest obstacles in the Tigers’ path after starting the season 3-0, including an upset win over Alabama in their season-opener.

However, a double-overtime loss in Charlottesville has made the conference race much more interesting.

The door to Charlotte may be slightly more open for Clemson, but the Tigers are still a long shot to walk through it. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives them just a 0.3% chance to win the ACC.

The teams who have a higher chance to win the conference consist of: Miami (52.3%), Virginia (17.3%), Georgia Tech (11.6%), Florida State (6.3%), SMU (4.6%), Louisville (3.7%), Syracuse (1.5%), Duke (1.5%) and NC State (0.4).

Clemson entered the 2025 season as ACC favorites with Miami close behind, while FSU is more of a bounce-back story after last year’s unexpected 2-10 collapse. Their surprising hot start, led by Boston College transfer Thomas Castellanos, made them look like a dark horse, but the upset loss to Virginia shows just how fragile that early momentum could be.

The Tigers are left with only a sliver of hope, and there’s no other choice but to win out on the season.

While ambition remains in the Clemson locker room, Florida State’s defeat doesn’t erase the Tigers' issues across the board. But, it does make for a more competitive matchup in Week 10 at home. If the Tigers hadn’t stumbled out of the gate, it could’ve set up as a ranked contest with significant conference and national implications. Instead, it’s shaping up more as a fight for pride and positioning, with both programs looking to get their first conference win as of now.

If Clemson and head coach Dabo Swinney can regain momentum over the next couple of weeks, there will certainly be a showdown in upstate South Carolina to start November.