What the Advanced Analytics Say About Clemson vs. Duke

On Saturday afternoon, the Clemson Tigers will host the Duke Blue Devils at Memorial Stadium. Clemson is still looking for its first home win against a Power Four opponent this season, while Duke looks to remain in the hunt for the ACC Championship with only one loss in conference play.

Clemson is currently a 3.5-point favorite, according to most oddsmakers.

Here is what the advanced analytics are saying about the Tigers’ chances to get back to winning ways at home.

BCFToys (FEI)

BCFToys gives Clemson a 66.5% chance to win on Saturday, defeating the Blue Devils by an estimated projection score of 28.9-22.7, winning by a little less than a touchdown.

The Tigers have remained in the same area offensively and defensively, overall being the No. 41-ranked team in the country, regardless of their record. Clemson has an opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency at No. 49, while holding an opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency at No. 26.

Clemson’s opponent, Duke, has ratings that rank the Blue Devils as the No. 53 team in the country. The team has an opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency at No. 39, while holding a defensive efficiency at No. 65.

The Blue Devils and Tigers are ranked 74th and 99th, respectively, in special teams ratings.

SP+

ESPN Bill Connelly’s invented metric believes that Clemson will win the game as well. However, it will be by an uncomfortable margin for many fans and viewers.

SP+ gives the Tigers a 55% chance to win on Saturday in the ACC contest, winning the game 28-26. According to the model, Clemson is ranked 48th in the SP+ rankings, while Duke is ahead of its opponent at 45th.

https://x.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1982569566179115148/photo/1

The FPI gives Clemson a slightly better chance with 59.6% probability of winning. Six spots separate the two teams with the Tigers at 38th and Duke at 44th.

Long story short, the models expect the Tigers to win the game in a close affair, although the team has been generally favored to win almost all of their games this season. Using the bye week as a spring board, Clemson hopes to get the success to that of its first bye week, when it blew out North Carolina in Chapel Hill.

CFB Graphs

On the flip side, CFB Graphs think that the Blue Devils are the superior team and thinks they will get an away win against the Tigers.

The model believes that Duke will beat Clemson by an estimated score of 27.5-22.7, a similar margin with the opposite result as BCFToys. CFB Graphs gives head coach Manny Diaz’s team a 58.8% chance to win the game.

Duke’s offense and Clemson’s defense could be the key decider in what outcomes occur in this game. Duke is 22nd in offensive net points per drive with 2.55. However, on the flip side, the Tigers are 20th in defensive net points per drive with 1.30.

It could also mean the home crowd could play an advantage during key plays, or even a turnover.

Clemson’s offense will need to sustain important drives to keep up with Duke, according to the model. The Blue Devils have a 56.7% quality drive ratio that ranks 30th in the country. The Tigers are ranked 95th with 46.9%.

All in all, the game seems like a coin flip, especially how both teams have been playing over the course of the season. Clemson will look to get back to winning ways at home, but it will not be easy against a well-coached and strong Duke team.