What the Advanced Analytics Say About Clemson vs. Florida State

On Saturday night, the Clemson Tigers will host the Florida State Seminoles at Memorial Stadium. Both teams are looking to get back on track with a win following frustrating results that have defined their seasons.

Clemson is a 1.5-point favorite, according to most oddsmakers.

Here’s what the advanced analytics are saying about the Tigers’ chances to finish their penultimate home game of the season with a win.

BCFToys (FEI)

BCFToys gives Florida State the edge with its analytics over Clemson, with the model giving the Seminoles a 60% chance to leave Memorial Stadium with a win on Saturday. It projects the away team to win by a score of 29.4-25.8.

Clemson dropped five spots from last week, going from No. 41 to No. 46, and saw a plummeting rating on defense. The team went from No. 26 in its opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency to No. 42 in the country.

However, the Tigers move up on the opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency rating following a 45-point outburst at home last week in the loss to Duke. Clemson moved up 11 spots to 38th, looking to continue the offensive prowess against the Seminoles this Saturday, which they will need.

Florida State is ranked No. 26 in this model, being ranked 19th in opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency and 48th in opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency.

The Tigers and Seminoles are ranked 114th and 34th, respectively, in special teams.

SP+

ESPN’s Bill Connelly invented a metric that believes the game will go against the spread, believing that Florida State will leave Death Valley for the second consecutive time with a win.

SP+ only gives Clemson a 43% chance to win at home against Florida State, believing the Seminoles will win by a score of 29-26 on Saturday night. According to Connelly’s SP+ rankings, Florida State comes in at No. 24 while the Tigers enter the game at No. 45.

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The FPI gives Clemson a little more credit but remains favored to the Seminoles, giving the away team a 53.5% chance to win to continue to spiral the Tigers downward. Florida State remains at No. 24 in the FPI rankings, while Clemson is up to No. 37 in that model.

Last week, the Seminoles earned a strong win over Wake Forest while the Tigers lost a thriller to Duke at home. These ESPN models believe that the same results will happen with both squads this weekend.

CFB Graphs

CFB Graphs agrees that the away side is going to take the win in Clemson, but the win is by the smallest margin compared to the other two models.

Florida State is predicted to win by a score of 26.8-25.8, being only a one-point differential compared to the others. The Seminoles only have a 51.8% chance to win the game this weekend, but that makes it nearly a coin flip for the Tigers.

The tall task for Clemson will be to stop the Florida State high-octane offense, which records the most yards per game in the country with an average of 510.5. The Seminoles are ranked 18th in offensive success rate at 48%, challenging a Tiger defense that has struggled lately.

The quality drive ratio is always a point of emphasis and gives head coach Mike Norvell’s team the edge as well, being 23rd at 58.3%. On the other hand, Clemson is 77th with a quality drive ratio of 48.6%, which is better than it was last week before Duke.

The numbers that Florida State brings to the table will have defensive coordinator Tom Allen’s hands full, but if Clemson can continue the offensive success that it has had over the last six quarters, don’t be surprised if the teams go toe-to-toe throughout the 60 minutes.

Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. and the game will be broadcast on the ACC Network.