Colorado Buffaloes' NCAA Tournament Hopes Amid Big 12 Struggles

The Colorado Buffaloes men’s basketball team remains alive in the 2026 NCAA Tournament picture, but the margin for error is shrinking fast. Following Tuesday’s January 20 loss to the Kansas Jayhawks, Colorado now sits at 2–4 in Big 12 play with only 12 regular-season games remaining.

With the Big 12 widely viewed as one of the deepest conferences in the country, Colorado’s path to March Madness is no longer straightforward. The Buffaloes must now respond quickly to keep their postseason hopes intact.

Jan 20, 2026; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes forward Bangot Dak (8) reacts after a score in the first half against the Kansas Jayhawks at the CU Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

What the Numbers Say About Colorado’s Tournament Path

For Colorado to secure an at-large NCAA Tournament bid, the blueprint is clear but demanding. After a strong non-conference start that positioned CU well early, the Buffaloes likely need at least nine to ten conference wins to push past the 20-win mark and strengthen their overall resume in the eyes of the selection committee.

At 2–4, that means Colorado must win roughly eight of its final 12 games. That requirement alone would be challenging in any league. In the Big 12, it becomes a defining test of depth, toughness, and late-season execution, where close losses provide little margin for recovery and road wins carry increased value.

Schedule Filled With Tournament-Caliber Opponents

Colorado’s remaining schedule offers little relief. Still ahead are matchups with Arizona, BYU, Houston, Texas Tech, and Iowa State, teams capable of deep runs in both March Madness and the Big 12 Tournament and programs built on physicality and depth.

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These games represent opportunities for resume-building wins, but they also carry significant risk. Colorado will need consistency at home and competitiveness on the road to survive the stretch. A prolonged losing streak would all but eliminate Colorado from at-large contention and shift the focus toward alternative postseason paths, including a must-win Big 12 Tournament scenario.

Kansas Loss Reveals Areas That Must Change

The loss to Kansas on Tuesday highlighted both effort and execution gaps. While Colorado outperformed the Jayhawks in steals, the Buffaloes struggled to control the paint. Kansas finished with a 45–33 rebounding advantage, a disparity that proved decisive and consistently stopped Colorado’s momentum during key stretches.

Colorado Buffaloes Men's Basketball — Jan 20, 2026; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes forward Alon Michaeli (3) steals a pass in the second half against the Kansas Jayhawks at the CU Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Defensive rebounding has become a recurring concern. Extra possessions allow elite teams to dictate tempo, limit transition opportunities, and wear down defensive rotations. Colorado has come short in the second half of recent games, especially late. If CU hopes to replicate its 2024 postseason success, physicality, box-outs, and urgency in the paint must improve immediately.

Is the Big 12 Tournament the Alternate Route?

If the regular-season path tightens further, winning the Big 12 Tournament remains a possible, though difficult, alternative. That route would require Colorado to defeat multiple ranked opponents in consecutive games, something that demands consistency, health, and execution the Buffaloes have not yet shown across a full stretch.

Jan 20, 2026; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes center Elijah Malone (50) lays on the court in the first half against the Kansas Jayhawks at the CU Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Still, the season is not over. Colorado has demonstrated defensive pressure, ball disruption, and late-game competitiveness against high-level opponents. Those traits suggest the ceiling remains high if adjustments are made. Turning these brief flashes into complete, disciplined performances on both ends will make it a choice on whether March Madness remains within reach.

With little room left for setbacks, every possession now carries postseason implications for Colorado men’s basketball, especially as momentum becomes just as important as metrics.