How Colorado Buffaloes Women's Basketball Can Win the Big 12 Tournament

Some aspects of the last month of Colorado Buffaloes women's basketball have made sense. Others have been stupefying.

But no matter the precedent, coach JR Payne's Buffs are closing in on a return to the NCAA Tournament. In fourth place via tiebreak after another home upset, Colorado has two games left before a Big 12 tournament trip with endless possibilities.

Colorado Rising In Big 12 Standings

Oct 21, 2025; Kansas City, MO, USA; Colorado head coach JR Payne speaks to media during Big 12 Womenís Basketball Media Day at T-Mobile Center. | Sophia Scheller-Imagn Images

After beating No. 20 Texas Tech to earn a tiebreaker, Colorado sits in fourth place in the Big 12. The Buffs started conference play 3-4 but are now just two games back of the first-place TCU Horned Frogs.

However, their chances of a regular-season title will come up short regardless of results. TCU and the Baylor Bears, who are within half a game of each other, play each other this Sunday. If the Horned Frogs lose twice to tie their record with Colorado, it will imply that Baylor, which has one game left, moves to first place. The Bears beat the Buffaloes on Jan. 8.

Still, that doesn't mean Colorado can't continue to climb. With a home matchup against Utah this Tuesday night and a road game against BYU on Saturday afternoon, the Buffaloes have two winnable contests that can improve their standing with help.

Winning out would at least land them a top-four seed for next week's Big 12 Championship in Kansas City, Missouri. If West Virginia loses both of its remaining games, the Buffs would move up to three. Though that'd take an upset, as the Mountaineers play lowly UCF and Cincinnati.

Mar 7, 2025; Kansas City, MO, USA; Colorado Buffaloes guard Kindyll Wetta (15) high fives forward Jade Masogayo (14) after a play against the TCU Horned Frogs during the first quarter at T-Mobile Center. | Amy Kontras-Imagn Images

If the Buffs lose at least once and Texas Tech wins out, the No. 5 or 6 seed will be theirs. Oklahoma State sits a game back of Colorado, and Arizona State waits two back if both Utah and BYU defeat Payne's squad. Both OSU and ASU have two games left, with the Cowgirls splitting the season series and the Sun Devils holding a tiebreaker.

So essentially, if the Buffaloes beat Utah, they're locked into a top-five seed. If they lose and one of Texas Tech, Oklahoma State or Arizona State wins, it gets significantly more difficult to snag a double-bye.

Their NCAA Tournament chances would take a hit as well, as the Buffs remain among the "Last Four In" on Tuesday's bracketology. The committee wouldn't deny a Colorado that's a top-four seed in the Big 12, but at fifth or sixth, a win or two in the conference tourney would likely be necessary.

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Can TCU Defend Big 12 Crown?

Mar 8, 2025; Kansas City, MO, USA; TCU Horned Frogs head coach Mark Campbell yells from the sideline during the first half against the TCU Horned Frogs at T-Mobile Center. | Amy Kontras-Imagn Images

This season's Big 12 has been hotly contested, but defending champs TCU remain at the top. A pair of transfers power the Frogs, as guard Olivia Miles and forward Marta Suarez are All-Big 12 caliber talents.

But they'll face steep competition in Kansas City. Last year's runner-up, Baylor, added former Auburn guard Taliah Scott through the portal, and she's now tied with Miles as the conference's second-leading scorer. Add on the league's best rebounder in Darianna Littlepage-Buggs, who missed last season's tournament due to injury, and the Bears are an elite contender.

Nov 3, 2025; Paris, FRA; Baylor Bears guard Taliah Scott (0) reacts after scoring a three-point basket against the Duke Blue Devils during the second half at Adidas Arena. | Chris Jones-Imagn Images

West Virginia's potent defense should give any team headaches, as should Texas Tech and Colorado. Iowa State is strengthening after star forward Addy Brown returned from injury, and don't count out Oklahoma State's fast-paced offense. Arizona State has had one of the nation's best turnarounds under first-year coach Molly Miller.

It should be a riveting tournament in KC, one that Colorado can clear a path through with a few more victories. Tip-off against Utah is set for 7 p.m. MT (ESPN+), on Tuesday, Feb. 24.