Colorado Women's Basketball's Updated NCAA Tournament Projection After Key Win

If they can close the regular season strong and win a Big 12 Tournament game or two, the Colorado Buffaloes are likely headed to their fourth NCAA women's basketball tournament in five years.

Colorado is now 18-8 (9-5 Big 12) after beating the BYU Cougars on Saturday and is well within the March Madness conversation. In ESPN's latest bracketology, Colorado was featured as the "First Team Out," meaning the Buffs are just barely on the wrong side of the bubble.

Colorado Women's Basketball NCAA Tournament Projection Buffs March Madness Jade Masogayo Desiree Wooten Zyanna Walker JR Payn — Mar 7, 2025; Kansas City, MO, USA; Colorado Buffaloes head coach JR Payne looks on during the first quarter against the TCU Horned Frogs at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: Amy Kontras-Imagn Images | Amy Kontras-Imagn Images

Coach JR Payne and the Buffs have now won six of their last seven games and are staring down a manageable final stretch of the regular season with games against Arizona, No. 20 Texas Tech, Utah and BYU.

"Really, really beyond proud of how we played; our team continues to show tremendous balance and tremendous fight," Payne said after Saturday's win, per CU. "Every single player that played hit the floor at some point on purpose, like actually dove on the floor to save a ball or get a rebound or what have you. Really proud of how we performed. And I think we're going to continue to just keep growing."

The French Phenom 🇫🇷🦬 pic.twitter.com/dSvlNFAcKQ
— Colorado Women's Basketball 🦬 (@CUBuffsWBB) February 15, 2026

Senior forward Anaëlle Dutat led the scoring charge on Saturday with 19 points, followed by Desiree Wooten (16), Jade Masogayo (15) and Tabitha Betson (11). The Buffs shot 45 percent from the field and held BYU to a 31 percent clip.

"I feel we get into situations where sometimes we can play down to who we're playing against. I think today was a huge growth for us because we didn't do that," Betson said. "We stepped on the gas and we kept playing like that the whole time. So it's definitely a relief, and it was nice to kind of coast through the end."

Updated NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament Picture

ESPN analyst Charlie Creme tabbed UConn, UCLA, Vanderbilt and South Carolina as its four projected No. 1 seeds. Looking at the Big 12, nine teams were listed as either in the field or on the bubble:

Oklahoma State Cowgirls (No. 8 seed)
West Virginia Mountaineers (No. 5 seed)
Iowa State Cyclones (No. 9 seed)
Utah Utes (No. 12 seed)
TCU Horned Frogs (No. 3 seed)
Texas Tech Red Raiders (No. 7 seed)
Colorado Buffaloes (First Four Out)
Arizona State Sun Devils (First Four Out)
Kansas Jayhawks (Next Four Out)

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As the "First Team Out," Colorado must continue winning and possibly get some help from others to gain a more comfortable footing ahead of Selection Sunday. Even if the Buffs come up short of the NCAA Tournament, only two more victories are needed to secure Colorado's fifth straight 20-win season under Payne.

Colorado's march toward March will continue Tuesday against the Arizona Wildcats, who stand just 2-12 in conference play. Tip-off from Tucson is set for 6 p.m. MT on ESPN+.