What the Advanced Analytics Say About Colorado vs. Northwestern

The Colorado Buffaloes have scaled two 2026 hurdles in Georgia Tech and Weber State.

The Buffaloes and coach Deion Sanders now have a chance to improve to 3-0 for the second time since 2023. But they must knock off a Northwestern Wildcats team featuring an offense that could provide plenty of fits for this newly revamped Colorado defense.

In diving deeper into the advanced analytics, this Wildcats team poses as a deeper challenge for the currently undefeated Buffaloes.

Colorado vs. Northwestern, FPI Prediction

Kam Perry Colorado Buffaloes Weber State Wildcats Tre Turner Folsom Field Big 12 Conference Big Sky Conference — Sep 12, 2026; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Weber State cornerback Tre Turner (1) tackles Colorado Buffaloes wide receiver Kam Perry (7) in the second half against Weber State Wildcats at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

ESPN's Football Power Index doesn't hand the Buffaloes much love.

The FPI dropped Colorado down to No. 12 overall in the Big 12, plus ranking the Buffaloes No. 50 nationally.

And worse for Colorado, there's still a low expectation that the Buffaloes will make a bowl game, with the FPI handing CU a 59.8 percent chance to earn a bid somewhere. This is despite receiving a prediction to win 6.1 games at the end of the year. Yet the FPI doesn't give Colorado much hope for landing in the College Football Playoffs (2.1 percent) or even playing for the Big 12 title, which has a smaller percentage at 1.4.

Julian Lewis Colorado Buffaloes Weber State Wildcats College Football Northwestern Wildcats Big 12 Conference Big Ten — Sep 12, 2026; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes quarterback Julian Lewis (10) reacts following a touchdown pass in the second quarter against the Weber State Wildcats at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Meanwhile, sportsbooks aren't handing the Buffaloes any hope of a win either.

Northwestern is a slight favorite before the Sept. 19 showdown, with the Wildcats entering as a 3.5-point favorite per FanDuel. So there's still a chance Colorado could pull off its second upset of the young season, as the Buffaloes were previously a slight underdog against Georgia Tech.

Overview of Colorado vs. Northwestern, Big Ten Teams

Quentin Gibson Colorado Buffaloes Weber State Wildcats Denzel Peoples Big 12 Conference Northwestern Wildcats — Sep 12, 2026; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Weber State Wildcat cornerback Denzel Peoples (26) tackles Colorado Buffaloes wide receiver Quentin Gibson (6) in the fourth quarter at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Week 3 showdown marks the third time the Buffaloes and Wildcats will meet. Except Colorado won the last meeting back in 1978, with the Buffaloes rolling a 55-7 trouncing in Boulder.

Yet Colorado enters a more unfamiliar territory in Evanston, Illinois. Northwestern is playing right in front of a lakefront this season, with its permanent home, Ryan Field, undergoing tweaks. Settings involving a body of water sometimes pose a distraction for visiting teams. So Sanders and his assistants likely will address that part to the Buffaloes.

There's also the Mother Nature component. Rain and thunderstorms present a chance to delay the scheduled 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff. This means Colorado could be due for its second delayed football game already this season (Georgia Tech was briefly halted due to a thunderstorm in the Atlanta region). Yet Sanders believes his team will be up to the task of weathering the storm in Evanston.

David Braun Northwestern Wildcats South Dakota State Jackrabbits College Football Colorado Buffaloes Deion Sanders — Sep 5, 2026; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Northwestern Wildcats head coach David Braun instructs his team before a game against the South Dakota State Jackrabbits at Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Lastly, Colorado earns a chance to continue its success against Big Ten teams. The Buffaloes can earn their 20th victory all-time against a program representing that conference by beating the Wildcats. Colorado walks in with a 19-18-1 overall mark against, arguably, the toughest college football conference in America.

However, the Buffaloes have lost three of their last four games against opponents representing the Big Ten. Sanders and a Travis Hunter/Shedeur Sanders-led Buffaloes team rolled past Nebraska 36-14 in 2023 as Colorado's last win over a representative from that conference. Yet a Sept. 19 win hands the Buffaloes their best start since Coach Prime's first season in 2023.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Sign up to our free newsletter and follow us on Facebook for the latest news.

Add us as a preferred source on Google