What the Advanced Analytics Say About Colorado vs. Oklahoma State

Now the Colorado Buffaloes face a previously ranked foe in the Oklahoma State Cowboys after nearly knocking off No. 10 Utah.

Oct 17, 2026; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes head coach Deion Sanders on the field during the first quarter against the Utah Utes at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Colorado Buffaloes have earned the respect from Oklahoma State Cowboys coach Eric Morris.

Colorado's next opposing coach ahead of the Oct. 24 showdown raved about the play of CU, despite the Buffaloes heading to Stillwater on a four-game losing streak. Morris believes this Buffaloes team, led by coach Deion Sanders, is the "best two-win team" in the country.

But the Football Power Index (FPI) rankings share a different story ahead of this Big 12 Conference showdown.

Looking Closely at Football Power Index for Colorado at Oklahoma State

Oct 3, 2026; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes head coach Deion Sanders walks the sidelines in the second quarter against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Colorado, one week ago, earned the second-lowest FPI ranking among Big 12 teams per ESPN before facing the Utes.

The Buffaloes slightly moved up thanks to their near-upset of the Utes, moving to 14th in the conference but jumping from 71st to 64th.

Signs indicate that the Buffaloes could be due for a needed victory. The Oct. 17 nail-biter against the Utes proved that Colorado is capable of applying a scare to a highly ranked foe. Sanders himself saw a far different Buffaloes team at Folsom Field, including consoling tears among players after realizing they could've won that game.

The Cowboys could be looking at a more confident, plus more energized, Buffaloes team from that Utah game. The last time Colorado entered a week at 2-4 overall, the Buffs stunned a nationally ranked Iowa State team in front of their fans. And that 24-17 home win was an October contest.

How Tough Will Oklahoma State be for Colorado?

Oct 17, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys quarterback Drew Mestemaker (17) celebrates with running back Caleb Hawkins (24) after a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Houston Cougars at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Oklahoma State walks into its home venue, Boone Pickens Stadium, owning the seventh-best FPI among Big 12 teams. The Cowboys are also a top-40 bunch, ranking 40th overall in the power index.

Morris didn't take long to reignite the culture in Stillwater, doing it by replacing a longtime fixture and coaching legend there, Mike Gundy.

The Cowboys immediately broke into the top 25 thanks to their Week 2 stunner over previously No. 2-ranked Oregon, 39-31. That win put the nation on notice that the Cowboys were on their way back into national prominence. But like the Buffaloes, Oklahoma State provided its own scare against a nationally ranked foe, nearly beating No. 20 Houston on the road but falling 35-32 on Oct. 17.

So turns out the Buffaloes and the Cowboys are relatable in terms of coming off tough losses against top-25 teams. Now both aim to rebound; however, this game will shine a light on which direction CU goes from here.

Colorado's Remaining Bowl Chances

Oct 17, 2026; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes head coach Deion Sanders and offensive lineman Jayven Richardson (75) following an injury during the first quarter against the Utah Utes at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Colorado's chances of making a bowl run is dwindling.

The FPI hands the Buffaloes a 13.8 percent chance of hitting six victories, the needed mark to become bowl-eligible. Already, Colorado holds a zero percent chance of winning the Big 12 or making the playoffs with four losses attached to them.

And their percentage of winning out is at 0.3 percent, making that number way smaller compared to their hopes of hitting six victories.

Granted, Colorado faces an unranked Cowboys team, then only has one game left with a top-25 team in Houston. But CU still faces three 4-2 teams on the schedule, including Oklahoma State. So that FPI ranking could either boost with a win or fall even lower after Oct. 24.

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