Why Colorado Competing for Big 12 Title Is Not as Surprising as Some Think

The Colorado Buffaloes are difficult to project in 2026 with coach Deion Sanders not only turning over nearly the entire roster through the transfer portal but also changing his coaching staff with the hiring of offensive coordinator Brennan Marion and promoting of defensive coordaintor Chris Marve.

ESPN's Heather Dinich poured cold water on any chances for Colorado to reach the College Football Playoff or the Big 12 title game, and it's an easy opinion to have after "Coach Prime" and the Buffs finished with a 3-9 record in 2025. The CFP feels out of reach with a new roster, new coaching staff, and a young quarterback in Julian Lewis expected to start, but is conference title contention that out of reach for Colorado?

colorado buffaloes julian lewis deion sanders big 12 title chances college football playoff chris marve brennan marion — Jul 7, 2026; Frisco, TX, USA; Colorado head coach Deion Sanders speaks to reporters during Big 12 Conference Football Media Days at The Star. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Potential Hope for Colorado Buffaloes in 2026?

According to ESPN's Max Olson's 26 simulations of EA College Football 27, Colorado won the Big 12 and therefore reached the 12-team playoff two different times.

In the majority of simulations, BYU or Texas Tech came away with the conference title, but teams like Colorado, Kansas State, Baylor, TCU, and Utah were all surprise teams. Behind the leaders of BYU and Texas Tech, the Big 12 is a deep conference with a high amount of parity. Could the Buffaloes catch fire and go on a run?

New pieces to the roster like running backs Damian Henderson and JaQuail Smith as well as wide receivers like Danny Scudero, DeAndre Moore Jr., and Kam Perry all inject excitement into the offense. On the other side of the ball, the Buffaloes added over 10 defensive linemen as well as linebackers Liona Lefau and Gideon Lampron with defensive backs like Justin Eaglin and Randon Fontenette expected to contribute.

Colorado and "Coach Prime" will be tested in conference play with home games against Texas Tech, Utah, and Houston as well as road games against Oklahoma State and Arizona State headlining the Big 12 schedule for the Buffaloes.

An at-large bid will be difficult for any Big 12 team to acquire, as evidenced by the BYU Cougars being left out of the 12-team field following the 2025 season. It's not completely impossible for the Big 12 to send two teams to the CFP, but two losses appears to be the maximum for any at-large team not in the SEC or Big Ten.

Still, the CFP might not necessarily be Colorado's goal after a 3-9 finish in 2025.

Colorado Buffaloes, Deion Sanders' Expectations

Sanders has called this Colorado coaching staff the best one that he's ever had in Boulder, and time will tell if the Buffaloes coaches can develop the talent on the roster.

Oddsmakers at FanDuel Sportsbook are not relatively high on "Coach Prime" and company, giving Colorado an expected win total of 4.5 games. Meanwhile, the Buffaloes are tied for the second-worst odds of winning the Big 12 at +10,000. Texas Tech currently leads with the best odds at +105, creating a wide distance between the Red Raiders and the Buffaloes.

If Colorado does surprise and is able to compete for a conference title, the Buffaloes would truly be one of the biggest dark horses of the season.

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