3 Key Observations From Duke's Scare Against Siena

1-seed Duke avoided what would have been potentially the biggest upset in the history of college basketball, taking down 16-seed Siena 71-65. The Blue Devils entered the halftime locker room in a 43-32 deficit and led for just 21% of the entire contest.

Against all odds, the Saints competed with the Blue Devils. Siena didn't make a single substitution until the final few seconds and was still able to compete with Duke's depth. Additionally, the Blue Devils are the second-tallest team in the nation, according to KenPom. Siena ranks 275th in average height.

Mar 19, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer (12) blocks the shot of Siena Saints forward Francis Folefac (11) in the second half during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

There were no metrics or any sort of prediction that could've reasonably led to Siena competing with the blue blood, but this is March. Nonetheless, Duke now has lots to figure out before a quick turnaround, as it will take on 9-seed TCU in the Round of 32 on Saturday.

TCU took down 8-seed Ohio State 66-64 to advance.

Mar 19, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Dame Sarr (7) shoots the ball against the Siena Saints in the first half during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

After a too-close-for-comfort victory for the Blue Devils to kick off their quest for a sixth national title, let's take a look at three key observations from the victory.

Mar 18, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer during a practice session ahead of the first round of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Duke Needs a Reality Check

It's easy to assume that Duke simply was not ready to play, completely undermining Siena as an opponent altogether. Realistically, there was no reasonable way that the contest should have been close at all. However, what pushes that narrative even more is what senior forward Maliq Brown told reporters at halftime.

Brown spoke with CBS Sports' Tracy Wolfson at halftime, and didn't say anything Duke fans wanted to hear.

Mar 14, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Maliq Brown (6) and Virginia Cavaliers center Ugonna Onyenso (33) reach for the ball in the first half during the men's ACC Conference Tournament Championship at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

"We thought it was going to be a cakewalk going into this game so now we know what it is so we just have to respond back," Brown said.

Obviously, it's never a good look to downplay an opponent, regardless of whether it's a 16-seed. Duke showed it was not ready to play, and will have to completely change its mentality heading into the weekend.

Mar 19, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Cayden Boozer (2) reacts against the Siena Saints in the second half during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Cayden Boozer Can Run the Show

With all of the potential disasters that riddled the Blue Devils today, the biggest bright spot was freshman point guard Cayden Boozer, who continues to improve as Duke's lead guard in Caleb Foster's absence.

Even with Duke continually trailing, Boozer remained poised and ran the offense as a scorer and passer. The rookie finished the game with a career-high 19 points to go along with five assists, two steals, and zero turnovers in 39 minutes of action.

Duke Blue Devils guard Cayden Boozer (2) shoots the ball Thursday, March 19, 2026, during the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament first round game against the Siena Saints at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina. | Alex Martin/Greenville News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In the four games without Foster in the lineup, Boozer is averaging 15.0 points and 2.8 assists. He can run the show without the Blue Devils' veteran guard.

Duke Blue Devils guard Isaiah Evans (3) drives to the basket Thursday, March 19, 2026, during the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament first round game against the Siena Saints at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina. | Alex Martin/Greenville News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Duke Fans Shouldn't Overreact

Sure, this game should not have been nearly as close as it was, but this might be the best thing that could've happened to this Blue Devils squad. If the Blue Devils came into their Round of 64 matchup with a "cakewalk" mindset, a 30-point win wouldn't have helped.

Ideally, this serves as a bit of a slap in the face for the squad for the rest of the NCAA Tournament, as Duke will face a much more quality opponent in the Horned Frogs this weekend.