3 Ways Duke Can Beat Florida State in ACC Tournament

The Blue Devils kick off ACC Tournament action on Thursday against Florida State.

Feb 24, 2026; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer calls a play against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the first half at Purcell Pavilion at the Joyce Center. Mandatory Credit: Michael Caterina-Imagn Images | Michael Caterina-Imagn Images

The Duke Blue Devils (29-2, 17-1 ACC) will kick off their 2026 ACC Tournament against 8-seed Florida State (18-14, 10-8 ACC) on Thursday, March 12. The Seminoles took down 9-seed California (21-11, 9-9 ACC) 95-89 in the second round.

Despite having to win four games in four days to have any shot at making the NCAA Tournament, Florida State has found a rhythm towards the end of the season. The Seminoles won 10 of their last 13 games to close the regular season, including wins over Virginia Tech, SMU, and Clemson.

Mar 7, 2026; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer (12) controls the ball during the second half against the North Carolina Tar Heels at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Duke Blue Devils won 76-61. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images | Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images

The Blue Devils are dealing with injuries themselves, as starters Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba have both been ruled out for the entirety of the ACC Tournament with foot injuries. Ngongba is expected to be back for the NCAA Tournament, but Foster's extended status is unclear.

No team in the history of college basketball has ever won the National Championship after losing its first conference tournament game, making a win tonight crucial for the Blue Devils. Let's take a look at three ways Duke can take down Florida State.

Mar 2, 2026; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer looks on during the first half against the NC State Wolfpack at Lenovo Center. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Control the Tempo

Florida State likes to win games by playing fast and running up the scoreboard. It currently ranks 58th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 31st in adjusted tempo, according to KenPom.

Duke, on the other hand, likes to grind games out in the half-court and make opponents' lives miserable with its defensive length.

Mar 7, 2026; Durham, North Carolina, USA;Duke Blue Devils forward Dame Sarr (7) reacts after hitting a three-pointer during the second half against the North Carolina Tar Heels at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Duke Blue Devils won 76-61. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images | Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images

The Seminoles are a weak defensive team, and likely have no shot at taking down the Blue Devils unless they score 80 or more. Across Duke's eight-game win streak to close the regular season, it didn't allow 65 or more points to a single opponent. Slowing the contest down will pay dividends.

Mar 7, 2026; Durham, North Carolina, USA;Duke Blue Devils guard Cayden Boozer (2) and forward Dame Sarr (right) strategize during the second half against the North Carolina Tar Heels at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Duke Blue Devils won 76-61. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images | Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images

Force Turnovers

Florida State takes solid care of the basketball, sitting 80th nationally at KenPom in turnover percentage at 15.2. In its second-round victory over the Golden Bears, FSU only coughed it up six times, while forcing 12 Cal turnovers that turned into 20 points.

Duke surrendered 15 turnovers the first time FSU and Duke met back in January. The Blue Devils don't turn teams over at a high clip, but getting the Noles out of rhythm offensively and getting points in transition off those turnovers will bode well for a Duke win.

Feb 28, 2026; Durham, North Carolina, USA;Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer (left) reacts during the first half against the Virginia Cavaliers at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images | Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images

Win the Three-Point Line

Florida State ranks 234th nationally in three-point shooting percentage at 32.9 and 236th in three-point percentage defense at 34.8. One of the reasons FSU sits with a lower percentage is because it takes threes at an extremely high clip (26th nationally in total point distribution from threes).

In the Blue Devils' 91-87 victory over the Seminoles back in January, Florida State shot 14-of-30 (47%) from three. It shot 13-of-28 (46%) last night against California.

Mar 2, 2026; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils center Patrick Ngongba II (21) reacts after scoring against the NC State Wolfpack during the first half at Lenovo Center. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Limiting FSU's opportunities from beyond the arc could give Duke a lopsided win.