3 Ways Duke Can Beat TCU in Round of 32

The 1-seed Duke Blue Devils survived a heck of a scare against 16-seed Siena on Thursday night, ultimately taking down the Saints 71-65 to advance to the Round of 32. The Blue Devils entered the halftime locker room down 43-32 in legitimate shape to suffer the worst loss in NCAA Tournament history.

Nonetheless, Duke got it done in the second half and will face 9-seed TCU for a chance to advance to the Sweet Sixteen. The Horned Frogs took down 8-seed Ohio State 66-64 to move to the second round.

Mar 18, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer reacts during a practice session ahead of the first round of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

The Blue Devils put together an extremely weak defensive showing in the first half against a Siena team that can get hot from outside. It seemed like Duke was not ready to play heading into the Round of 64, and ideally, this matchup was a wake-up call for the Blue Devils.

Jon Scheyer's club will now face a battle-tested TCU club out of the Big 12, and it will need to come out of the gates much cleaner than it did against Siena. Here are three ways the Blue Devils can take down the Horned Frogs on Saturday.

Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer (12) shoots the ball Thursday, March 19, 2026, during the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament first round game against the Siena Saints at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina. | Alex Martin/Greenville News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Dominate the Paint

This one feels obvious, but TCU is extremely vulnerable when it comes to the inside.

Against Ohio State, TCU lost the paint battle 34-24. The Horned Frogs currently rank 200th in two-point field goal percentage at 51.3, according to KenPom, and 156th in two-point percentage defense at 51.3. Jamie Dixon's squad is also 322nd nationally in average height.

Mar 18, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer (12) reacts with forward Maliq Brown (6) during a practice session ahead of the first round of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Typically, the Blue Devils get their work done inside. This year, Duke ranks eighth nationally in two-point shooting percentage at 60.0 and is second in the nation in average height.

Duke struggled in the paint against Siena, only winning that margin 36-30. However, TCU has been weak inside all year, and the Blue Devils must take advantage.

Mar 19, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Dame Sarr (7) shoots the ball against the Siena Saints in the first half during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Defend Without Fouling

One of the ways Duke has dominated its opponents this season is at the charity stripe, and TCU is a club that struggles at the line. The Horned Frogs rank third in the Big 12 in total free throws attempted (762), but rank 13th in free-throw percentage (70.6).

The Blue Devils lead the ACC in total free throws attempted (750), but rank 10th in the conference in make percentage (72.4). Duke went 18-of-21 (86%) from the stripe against Siena, whereas TCU went just 9-of-14 (64%) against the Buckeyes. Controlling the free-throw tally will pay dividends for the Blue Devils.

Duke Blue Devils guard Cayden Boozer (2) reacts after scoring Thursday, March 19, 2026, during the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament first round game against the Siena Saints at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina. Duke Blue Devils won 71-65. | Alex Martin/Greenville News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Take Care of the Basketball

Duke has taken solid care of the ball this season, averaging 10.5 turnovers per game (12th in ACC) while forcing 12.2 a game (sixth in ACC). However, the Horned Frogs average just 10.8 turnovers a night (ninth in Big 12) while forcing 13.5 a contest (third in Big 12).

TCU forced seven turnovers on Ohio State, which turned into 10 points, and ranks 35th nationally in defensive turnover percentage (19.4). Duke has taken good care of the basketball this year, but it will be crucial to do so against TCU.