Bold Prediction Has Duke Losing Out on 4-Star Forward

Duke and head coach Jon Scheyer are coming off a highly successful 2026 recruiting cycle, during which they landed four top-100 prospects, three of whom were consensus top-20 players in the country.

As the 2026 cycle continues to wind down, the Blue Devils have started shifting their focus to the 2027 recruiting class and are already making progress with several prospects. One of those prospects is a four-star small forward from North Carolina, but a national recruiting insider recently predicted that Duke will ultimately lose out on his recruitment.

Duke Predicted to Miss Out on Elite In-State 2027 Small Forward

On Jan. 7, Duke on SI reported that Trevor Manhertz, a four-star small forward from Christ School in Cary, North Carolina, had named the Blue Devils as one of his final three schools alongside Indiana and Louisville.

Duke log — Feb 5, 2025; Syracuse, New York, USA; Detailed view of the Duke Blue Devils logo on a uniform prior to the game against the Syracuse Orange at the JMA Wireless Dome. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-Imagn Images | Rich Barnes-Imagn Images

Manhertz has been one of Duke’s top targets throughout the 2027 cycle, and the Blue Devils recently hosted him on campus in Durham for an official visit in December.

With his final three schools named, many expect Manhertz to announce his commitment in the near future. While Duke remains very much in the running to land him, one national recruiting insider believes another team currently holds an edge over the Blue Devils.

Dec 20, 2025; New York, New York, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer coaches against the Texas Tech Red Raiders during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

In a recent article, Rivals’ senior national basketball recruiting analyst Jamie Shaw reported that he had logged a prediction for Indiana to land Manhertz. He explained that with the four-star forward’s decision looming, he believes the Hoosiers currently have the most momentum.

"While a date has not been made public yet, speaking to sources involved in the recruitment, it appears that momentum is building toward a commitment within the next couple of weeks," Shaw wrote.

Indiana log — The IU logo on the shorts of Michael Durr (2) during the second half of the Indiana versus Illinois men's basketball game at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall on Saturday, Feb. 5, 2022. Iu Il Bb 2h Iu Logo | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK

He continued, "If that timeframe holds up, I am told that Indiana is currently carrying a good bit of momentum. Based on the Intel I am getting I have placed a prediction for the Hoosiers to land the top-35 prospect."

While it's still early in the 2027 recruiting cycle, missing out on Manhertz would be a significant blow to Scheyer and company. Rivals’ industry rankings list him as the No. 81 overall player in the class, the No. 19 small forward, and the No. 4 prospect from North Carolina.

There’s no official timeline for his decision, but based on various reports, it sounds like Manhertz will announce his commitment in the next few weeks.

Shaw’s prediction doesn’t guarantee that the Manhertz will choose the Hoosiers over the Blue Devils, but it does suggest that the four-star forward is likely leaning in that direction.

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