National Projections Pivot on Duke Football’s Post-Championship Trajectory

Duke has some high expectations for them next season.

Manny Diaz, head football coach at Duke, celebrates a 42-29 win with his team against Arizona State in the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl at Sun Bowl Stadium in El Paso, Texas, on Wednesday, Dec. 31, 2025. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Duke Blue Devils will have high expectations placed on them for next season. After finding a way to walk away with the ACC title despite a 7-5 overall record last season, many are expecting Duke to build off of that success. 

In just Manny Diaz’s second season as head coach of the Blue Devils, they found themselves at the top of the ACC. They were also backed by the superstar play of quarterback Darian Mensah last season, who threw for 3,973 yards with 34 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions in the 2025 season. 

Duke’s Changes 

Dec 6, 2025; Charlotte, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah (10) celebrates after the Blue Devils score a touchdown in overtime during the ACC Championship game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

However, things have changed a lot for the Blue Devils over the course of the offseason. Even after winning the conference crown, Mensah — who had essentially carried Duke’s powerful offense last season — transferred out of the program and ended up with the Miami Hurricanes. 

In addition to Mensah’s departure, 17 other players from last season’s ACC championship roster also entered the transfer portal. As such, 19 new faces will be joining Diaz’s program in Durham for next season. Among those new faces is veteran quarterback Walker Eget, a San Jose State transfer who's poised to be the team’s starter. 

Nov 29, 2024; San Jose, California, USA; San Jose State Spartans quarterback Walker Eget (5) throws against the Stanford Cardinal in the second quarter at CEFCU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

Amidst all of these changes, many are skeptical of Duke's ability to truly build off of their success from last season, especially in a loaded ACC. CBS’s Brad Crawford predicts a 6-6 record for the Blue Devils next season. 

Crawford’s Prediction

Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah (10) hands the ball off to Duke Blue Devils running back Nate Sheppard (20) Saturday, Nov. 1, 2025, during the NCAA football game against the Clemson Tigers at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, South Carolina. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

“Duke's remarkable run to the ACC Championship raised expectations, but sustaining that level of success was always going to be difficult,” he said. “Losing two of the program's top players to Miami through the transfer portal only makes Manny Diaz's task even tougher. Replacing proven production is one challenge; replacing leadership and game-changing talent is another.”

The Blue Devils remain well-coached and competitive, but there are more losses than expected this season, especially with a challenging non-conference schedule. A step back doesn't mean Duke is falling apart; it just shows how competitive the landscape of college football is at the moment.

Duke head coach Manny Diaz on the sidelines during the MTSU Homecoming game on Saturday, Sept. 21, 2024. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

This projection feels a bit optimistic for the Blue Devils. This mark would be just a one-game decrease from last season’s 7-5 record, and with a significantly less-talented quarterback under center, I can’t envision a scenario where the Blue Devils nearly match last season’s production.

Nonetheless, time will tell if Diaz is able to survive the loss of his star quarterback and get the Blue Devils back into a bowl game for the second straight season. His tenure as head coach has gotten off to a good start, and he’ll look to continue that trajectory rather than take a step back.