Predicting Which Blue Devil Will Make Biggest Leap in 2026

From top to bottom, the Duke Blue Devils might be the most talented team in college basketball next season.

Head coach Jon Scheyer and his staff built what is probably the deepest rotation in the country heading into the 2026-27 campaign. Duke will be long, elite defensively, and is as complete a roster as there is.

With so many new, talented pieces coming in, some key players could get lost in the fold. However, there are several Blue Devils poised for breakout seasons.

Mar 29, 2026; Washington, DC, USA; UConn Huskies forward Tarris Reed Jr. (5) shoots past Duke Blue Devils center Patrick Ngongba (21) in the first half during an Elite Eight game of the East Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Last year, Duke's biggest breakout player was Patrick Ngongba. The 6'11" big man went from averaging 3.9 points and 2.7 rebounds in 10.6 minutes a night as a freshman to 10.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.1 blocks a game in 21.9 minutes, playing his way into being a projected 2026 NBA Draft first-round pick.

Ngongba made more improvements on the court than most thought he could. Which Blue Devil has the best chance of making that same leap in 2026-27?

Mar 29, 2026; Washington, DC, USA; UConn Huskies forward Alex Karaban (11) dribbles the ball past Duke Blue Devils guard Dame Sarr (7) during an Elite Eight game of the East Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Dame Sarr Is Duke's Biggest Breakout Candidate

In terms of "making the biggest leap," meaning the biggest jump in production from year to year, Dame Sarr has to be the favorite. This isn't a hot take either, as the 6'8" wing is entering his sophomore year in Durham with lofty expectations.

Sarr was a late addition to the Blue Devils' 2025 recruiting class after playing professionally with FC Barcelona. The Italian was regarded as arguably the best three-point shooter and defender in the class.

Mar 29, 2026; Washington, DC, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Dame Sarr (7) shoots a free throw against the UConn Huskies in the first half during an Elite Eight game of the East Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Sarr was a full-time starter for the Blue Devils as a rookie because he was arguably the best all-around defender on the squad. His length and footwork allowed him to switch and guard anywhere on the perimeter, with the physicality and active hands to be extremely productive.

However, the three-point shot didn't translate. Sarr averaged 6.4 points per game as a rookie on 32.3% shooting from the perimeter on 3.5 attempts. After coming into the year regarded as a first-round 2026 prospect, his stock completely fell off.

Mar 29, 2026; Washington, DC, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Dame Sarr (7) warms up prior to the game against the UConn Huskies during an Elite Eight game of the East Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Outlook for Dame Sarr in 2026-27

Heading into the 2026-27 season, Sarr will be a mainstay in the starting five once again because of his defensive abilities along the perimeter. If the three-point shot can get more consistent at a solid volume, Sarr can legitimately become the best 3-and-D wing in college basketball and jump into potential lottery status in the 2027 NBA Draft.

Sarr shot over 40% from three with FC Barcelona, albeit on low volume, but the shooting stroke is already there. His role is carved out as a 3-and-D sparkplug piece, and the tools are already there for him to excel.

Year 2 Dame 🔋📈↗️ pic.twitter.com/d4hIELQ81K
— Duke Men’s Basketball (@DukeMBB) July 3, 2026

I expect Sarr to average anywhere from 12-15 points per game on 38%-40% shooting from beyond the arc on four or five attempts per game. If he can match that efficiency with the elite defense he already brings, he will be one of the most impactful Blue Devils right away.

Sarr seems to have transformed his body this offseason and improved dramatically as a passer and finisher at the basket. The level of physicality in the college game seemed to bother him at times last season, but he's making the adjustments.

I, along with most folks around college basketball, expect a massive jump from Sarr as a sophomore.

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