Stats Duke Basketball Bound To Improve Upon in 2026-27

The Blue Devils are bound to improve in these metrics next year.

Mar 26, 2026; Washington, DC, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer stands on the court during a practice session ahead of the east regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

The Duke Blue Devils were analytically one of the best teams in college basketball last season, which is easy to believe considering they earned the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Jon Scheyer's club ended the 2025-26 season rating as the third-best team at KenPom, while rating sixth nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and third nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Blue Devils were one of four programs to rank inside the top-10 in both of those metrics last season.

Mar 29, 2026; Washington, DC, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer talks to a referee against the UConn Huskies in the first half during an Elite Eight game of the East Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Scheyer prides his teams on defensive length, versatility, and switchability. In every season he has been at the helm in Durham, Duke has ranked nationally in the top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency and in the top five in each of the last two seasons.

As one of the younger coaches at the Power Conference level, Scheyer is an example of how to use advanced metrics to his advantage. However, there are a few areas in which the Blue Devils were a bit weaker last season, and this incoming roster is bound to improve that.

Mar 29, 2026; Washington, DC, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Dame Sarr (7) shoots the ball against the UConn Huskies in the first half during an Elite Eight game of the East Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

Three-Point Shooting

The Blue Devils had the roster makeup to be a high-caliber three-point shooting club, but the consistency never materialized. Duke ranked 132nd nationally in team three-point shooting percentage (34.7) last season and 165th in total point distribution from threes (32.1%).

Duke has the makeup to vastly improve from the perimeter next season.

It starts with Dame Sarr, who came into Durham regarded as one of the best outside shooters in his recruiting class, but only connected on 32.3% of his attempts as a rookie on 3.5 per game. The 6'8" Italian wing already has the shot-making capability, and with so much attention that will be on guys like John Blackwell, Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje, and Patrick Ngongba, that will free up Sarr for open looks.

Feb 14, 2026; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Caleb Foster (1) controls the ball in front of Clemson Tigers forward RJ Godfrey (0) during the second half at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images | Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images

Additionally, Caleb Foster 39.8% from beyond the arc on 3.0 attempts last season, Blackwell is a career 37% three-point shooter, and a few of the incoming freshmen, such as Boumtje Boumtje and Bryson Howard, can attack from outside.

Duke should shoot the three at a higher clip and higher volume in 2026-27.

Mar 26, 2026; Washington, DC, USA; Duke Blue Devils center Patrick Ngongba (21) dribbles during a practice session ahead of the east regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Experience

It's hard to boil this down to a stat, but Duke has generally revolved its programs around elite young talent over the last decade or so. In seven of the last nine seasons, the team's leading scorer has been a freshman. That will likely change.

The Blue Devils were the 312th "most experienced" team last season per KenPom, which is a reality Duke fans have grown accustomed to. One of the major benefits of Scheyer constantly scheduling a grueling non-conference slate for his guys is that it helps his team get older, quicker, against top-tier competition.

Mar 27, 2026; Washington, DC, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Cayden Boozer (2) dribbles the ball past St. John's Red Storm guard Ian Jackson (11) in the first half during a Sweet Sixteen game of the East Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

Next season, the Blue Devils are bringing back four of their top six scorers, as well as Blackwell (rising senior) and Drew Scharnowski (rising junior) from Belmont. Duke has gotten older, which bodes well in today's college basketball era.

Mar 30, 2026; Goodyear, AZ, USA; Deron Rippey Jr (0) during the McDonalds All American Jam Fest at Millennium High School. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Turnover Percentage

The Blue Devils were one of the best defensive teams in college basketball last season, but rarely forced turnovers at a high rate. Duke ranked 286th in adjusted tempo and 132nd in defensive turnover percentage (17.3).

With shot blockers down low in Ngongba, Scharnowski, and Boumtje Boumtje, mixed with guys Blackwell and Sarr, who averaged at least a steal a game last season, and incoming rookie defenders such as Deron Rippey Jr., who excel on that end of the floor, the Blue Devils will have active hands and more opportunities to get out in transition.