Why Duke Could Get Bad News From 5-Star Target

Duke basketball head coach Jon Scheyer and his staff have nearly cemented the No. 1 overall 2026 recruiting class, according to 247Sports, headlined by three 5-star prospects already committed to the program. If that result stays, it would be the third straight year where Scheyer and Co. earn the nation's top-ranked recruiting class.

The current 5-star commits to the Blue Devils include Cameron Williams (No. 2 overall player according to the 247Sports 2026 Composite Rankings), Deron Rippey Jr. (No. 1 point guard according to 247Sports), and Bryson Howard (No. 12 overall player according to 247Sports). Williams and Rippey were both selected to the McDonald's All-American Game.

Duke has also landed a pledge from 4-star Canadian seven-footer Maxime Meyer.

However, the Blue Devils still aren't finished, as they are in the hunt for 5-star guard Jordan Smith Jr., the No. 3 overall player and No. 1 combo guard according to the 247Sports 2026 Composite Rankings.

No. 2 player in the country Jordan Smith Jr. (@sm23itty) rises for the alley-oop for Paul VI (@PVIHoops) 🔥

Watch LIVE on MaxPreps now ⬇️https://t.co/6HJObPwIoR pic.twitter.com/AVyytbEWRp
— MaxPreps (@MaxPreps) February 12, 2026

Smith narrowed his list down to Duke, Arkansas, Indiana, Georgetown, Syracuse, and Kentucky. But for the last month and a half or so, it's felt like a battle between Duke and Arkansas.

Feb 10, 2026; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks head coach John Calipari reacts against the LSU Tigers during the second half at Pete Maravich Assembly Center. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images | Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images

Jordan Smith Picks Up Late Crystal Ball To Land at Arkansas

Duke was generally viewed as the frontrunner in Smith's recruitment for quite some time. Along with Williams, Smith took an official visit to Duke for Countdown to Craziness, and shortly after picked up a crystal ball prediction to land in Durham.

However, John Calipari and the Razorbacks began to be reported to be making major strides with Smith's recruitment through the fall. Earlier in the week, Smith picked up a crystal ball prediction to land at Arkansas over Duke, and the 6'2", 200-pound product announced his commitment date that same day.

Feb 7, 2026; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks head coach John Calipari tlaks with guard Meleek Thomas (1) during the second half against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Humphrey Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Smith will announce his commitment on Friday, Feb. 13.

A complete performance from No. 2 Jordan Smith with 24 points, 7 boards, and 5 assists 🔥

Full story ⬇️https://t.co/3UpULyXWXd pic.twitter.com/yxvey9DbQw
— MaxPreps (@MaxPreps) February 12, 2026

Duke Likely To Miss Out on Smith

All indications point to Smith landing at Arkansas, leaving Duke in the dust after the elite guard was favored to commit to the Blue Devils for weeks.

“I talk with Coach (John) Calipari, and he keeps it real with me at all times," Smith told On3's Joe Tipton. "Coach Chin (Coleman) keeps it real with me, too, and I appreciate that. Seeing what the freshmen are doing this season, it just shows that Calipari is willing to help his players by any means necessary. It shows me that if I go there, I could really play my role.”

Calipari has produced a slew of elite guards throughout his time as a collegiate head coach, and it looks like Smith will be his next talent.

Stay tuned to Duke Blue Devils On SI for more Duke basketball recruiting news.

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