Why Duke Missing Out on 5-Star Smith Was Gift

Jon Scheyer rarely misses on recruits, but this one might have been a blessing in disguise.

Mar 26, 2026; Washington, DC, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer speaks with the media during a press conference ahead of the east regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

The Duke basketball program made a serious statement this offseason that it is adapting to the new era of college basketball.

Head coach Jon Scheyer and his staff prioritized veteran leadership and roster continuity over bringing in the next wave of elite freshman talent, which has been the Duke program's primary recruiting approach over the last decade or so.

Mar 27, 2026; Washington, DC, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer reacts in the first half during a Sweet Sixteen game of the East Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Now, Duke is still bringing in the No. 1 overall 2026 recruiting class, but the difference this year is that these incoming rookie pieces will be more complementary than focal points of the offense.

Scheyer is one of the best recruiters in the sport, and typically gets who he wants. However, there was one 5-star target in the 2026 recruiting cycle that Duke was heavily invested in and eventually missed out on.

Jordan Smith reacts with excitement after securing a win for the championship. Paul VI Catholic High School (Chantilly, VA) defeated Archbishop Stepinac High School (White Plains, NY) to win the 2025 City of Palms Classic Basketball Championship Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025 at Suncoast Arena in Fort Myers. Paul VI won with a final score of 57-53. | Ricardo Rolon / USA TODAY NETWORK-FLORIDA / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Duke Missed Out on 5-Star Guard Jordan Smith Jr.

For several months, Duke was considered the clear frontrunner to land 5-star guard Jordan Smith Jr., the No. 3 overall player in the 2026 recruiting class, according to the 247Sports Composite Rankings.

Smith took an official visit to Countdown to Craziness, along with current Duke 5-star signee Cameron Williams, and shortly after the visit, the 6'2" prospect received a crystal ball prediction to land with the Blue Devils.

Mar 31, 2026; Glendale, AZ, USA; Cameron Williams (1) during the McDonalds All American Boys Game at Desert Diamond Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Smith was high school teammates with Darren Harris and Patrick Ngongba Paul VI Catholic (VA).

However, late in the process, Arkansas emerged as a real competitor to swipe Smith from the Blue Devils, and that is what eventually came to fruition. However, that recruiting miss might have been the best thing that could've happened for the Duke program.

Mar 27, 2026; Washington, DC, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Caleb Foster (1) dribbles the ball against St. John's Red Storm guard Dylan Darling (0) in the first half during a Sweet Sixteen game of the East Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

Duke's Backcourt Is Loaded

The Blue Devils will enter the 2026-27 season with arguably the deepest and most talented backcourt in college basketball, featuring newcomers John Blackwell and 5-star rookie Deron Rippey Jr., along with returners Cayden Boozer and Caleb Foster.

Now, Duke's backcourt is already crowded, but if the program had landed Smith, that could've made some of these veteran decisions a bit different.

Mar 19, 2026; Portland, OR, USA; Wisconsin Badgers guard John Blackwell (25) reacts during the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the High Point Panthers at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

Rippey committed to Duke in December, and if Smith had committed, that would already look like a starting backcourt for the Blue Devils before the 2025-26 season had even ended. If Scheyer and Co. signed both Smith and Rippey, that could've paved the way for one of, if not both, of Foster and Boozer to depart.

Even if both returners came back in that scenario, that would've likely prompted Duke to not go after Blackwell, who was one of the best scorers in college hoops last year. If Scheyer did go after Blackwell in this case, at least one of Boozer or Foster would almost definitely be gone.

If Duke lands Blackwell and Caleb stays, it has the best backcourt in college basketball heading into next season.

Foster
Blackwell
Boozer
Rippey

— hughstraine (@HughStraine) April 21, 2026

The point is, getting as many 5-star freshmen as possible isn't the best way to win in college basketball anymore. The sport rewards experience and continuity over talent. Heading into the offseason with only Rippey gave Duke the freedom to get all of Boozer, Foster, and Blackwell. A Smith commitment would've changed what the backcourt looks like.

As a result, the Blue Devils will enter next season with a backcourt perfectly balanced between experience and talent.