Evaluating Duke's Bowl Game Projections Ahead of Virginia

Duke had a nightmarish day at UConn last Saturday, falling 37-34 in East Hartford and sinking the Blue Devils to 5-4 on the season.

Darian Mensah had possibly his worst day as a Blue Devil, turning the ball over three times. Still, he had the Duke offense on the move on the final drive and nearing range to tie or win the game.

Nov 8, 2025; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah (10) throws a pass against the UConn Huskies in the second half at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

Right now, Duke is a very one-sided team. While the offense has been prone to mistakes and turnovers at times, Jonathan Brewer's scoring unit seems like it could keep up with any team out there and score quickly. Mensah is a big reason for that. He's thrown for 2,794 yards, 24 touchdowns and four interceptions.

On the other side, Manny Diaz and Jonathan Patke have not been able to put together a defensive performance they can feel good about for a full 60 minutes.

Nov 8, 2025; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Manny Diaz watches from the sideline as they take on the UConn Huskies at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

The Blue Devils allowed 82 points over the course of their two-week road trip to Clemson and UConn. No. 19 Virginia, which travels to Durham this week, scores 33.7 points per game. While Virginia's quarterback situation is in flux this week, the Cavaliers are still an offense that can rip through the Blue Devils.

All of this is to say Duke just might have the inside track to the ACC title game with a win this weekend. A win over Virginia leaves just North Carolina and Wake Forest in Duke's path to Charlotte. If the Blue Devils get there, that's where the conversation begins.

Sep 10, 2021; Durham, North Carolina, USA; A Duke Blue Devils helmet sits on an equipment chest during the third quarter of the game against the North Carolina A&T Aggies at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Howard-Imagn Images | William Howard-Imagn Images

With just one conference loss, but three non-conference losses, the Blue Devils could get a second shot at Georgia Tech, which beat Duke in Durham a few weeks back. If Duke were to pull off the upset, could the Blue Devils sneak into the College Football Playoff? Or, could the ACC be shut out from the playoff entirely with a 4-loss champion?

That's all looking a long way ahead. Let's look further into the postseason and see where Duke could wind up during bowl season. We took a look around the nation to see where outlets have the Blue Devils playing during bowl season. Here's what we found:

National Bowl Projections

Sep 6, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils defensive end Vincent Anthony Jr. (7) celebrates with safety Terry Moore (1) after a touchdown against the Illinois Fighting Illini during the third quarter at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

CBS Sports: Birmingham Bowl | Duke vs South Florida (Dec. 29)

College Football News: Pinstripe Bowl | Duke vs Penn State (Dec. 27)

Oct 18, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils wide receiver Cooper Barkate (18) celebrates a down during the first half of the game against Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

ESPN No. 1: Military Bowl | Duke vs Tulane (Dec. 27)

ESPN No. 2: Duke's Mayo Bowl | Duke vs Missouri (Jan. 2)

Nov 8, 2025; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; Duke Blue Devils running back Nate Sheppard (20) scores against the UConn Huskies in the first quarter at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

On SI: Duke's Mayo Bowl | Duke vs Missouri (Jan. 2)

USA Today: Birmingham Bowl | Duke vs Memphis (Dec. 29)

Bowl Prediction

Nov 8, 2025; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah (10) throws a pass against the UConn Huskies in the first quarter at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

Duke's Mayo Bowl | Duke vs Missouri (Jan. 2)

The loss at UConn casts a ton of doubt on the idea of Duke's defense holding up enough to win out. Whether it's in the regular season or in the ACC title game, it's hard not to see Duke falling one more time.

Mensah has carried this team this season, but there is only so much he can do. I'll leave the door open on a potential trip to Charlotte, but if they get there and even find a way to win, I believe there is a real possibility the selection committee would deny Duke a playoff spot with four losses to its name.

Nov 8, 2025; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Manny Diaz on the field for warm up before the start of the game against the UConn Huskies at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

Let's put the Blue Devils in the bowl where it's possible to see Manny Diaz get dunked in a jug of mayonnaise. That's not the sole reason, but Duke could end up here with another loss, giving them five on the year. Missouri wouldn't have that many losses, but would be middling in the SEC standings to wind up in the game.

This could change if Duke finds a way to win with style in these next few weeks and boosts its reputation with strong defensive showings, but the hay is seemingly already in the barn.

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