Why Duke Football Should Feel Confident Against Virginia

The Blue Devils host Virginia on Saturday in a contest that will greatly impact the ACC standings.

Nov 8, 2025; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah (10) and teammates run onto the field for warm up before the start of the game against the UConn Huskies at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

There is no other game in the ACC that has the ramifications of the Duke Blue Devils versus the Virginia Cavaliers in Week 12. Not only is it a contest between two formidable teams, but it is the second-place team (Virginia) against the fifth-place team (Duke).

The winner of this game firmly entrenches itself in the race for the appearance in the ACC Championship game, while the loser sees its hopes of playing for a spot in the College Football Playoff evaporate with only one or two games remaining in the regular season.

Duke Blue Devils celebrates after the final play Saturday, Nov. 1, 2025, during the NCAA football game against the Clemson Tigers at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, South Carolina. | Alex Martin/Greenville News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Although Virginia is ranked in the top 25, Duke should feel good about its prospects in this game. Here are a couple of reasons the Blue Devils should enter this matchup with confidence.

Virginia's Quarterback Situation

Nov 8, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Chandler Morris (4) runs with the ball and is injured on the play during the first half against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

Chandler Morris seems to be trending towards starting on Saturday, but that has yet to confirmed.

Even if the senior quarterback is able to suit up and start, his production and effectiveness from the pocket have left a lot to be desired this season. Morris has completed 61.3% of his passes in four of the last five outings, which does include going three-for-six last week before exiting with a head injury.

If you don't want to hold that against him, that is completely fine, but even then, he only threw for 19 yards through the first 20 minutes of the game.

Nov 8, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Daniel Kaelin (10) passes the ball to Virginia Cavaliers tight end Sage Ennis (0) against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons during the second half at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

The Cavaliers would obviously prefer Morris starting on Saturday, as he brings experience and leadership to a game of this magnitude, but in the end, he has to make big-time throws throughout the game, which is a major question mark.

Virginia's Offense Could Struggle to Keep Up

Nov 8, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Chandler Morris (4) looks on from the field against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons during the first half at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

Yes, the Cavaliers are averaging 33.7 points per game this season, but the bulk of that production occurred early in the season prior to conference play.

In the last four games, Virginia has averaged 19.7 points, which includes failing to score one touchdown last week against Wake Forest.

Not to mention, despite winning three of those games, the Cavaliers own a point differential of +4 during that span. That includes a one-point win over North Carolina (17-16) and a two-point win over Washington State (22-20).

Oct 25, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers running back J'Mari Taylor (3) celebrates with wide receiver Jayden Thomas (8) and center Drake Metcalf (60) after scoring a touchdown in overtime at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

If the Blue Devils' offense continues to score at the rate it has in recent weeks, that spells trouble for Virginia, which is limited at quarterback and struggles scoring points at times. In the Cavaliers' last five games, Morris has accumulated two passing touchdowns and has not thrown for two touchdowns in a game since Week 5 against Florida State.

The first quarter of this game could foreshadow the result of this game, as Darian Mensah has jumped out to scorching hot starts in the Blue Devils' last two outings.

Sep 10, 2021; Durham, North Carolina, USA; A Duke Blue Devils helmet sits on an equipment chest during the third quarter of the game against the North Carolina A&T Aggies at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Howard-Imagn Images | William Howard-Imagn Images

In that span, Mensah has completed 14-of-22 passes for 224 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception in the first quarter. If the sophomore quarterback replicates anything remotely close to that, the Cavaliers could find themselves in an avalanche.

Make sure you stay up to date with all Duke content by following us on Facebook, by clicking HERE and following us on X (formerly Twitter) HERE