2025 FCS Football Playoff Bracket Predictions (Nov. 18)

Only one weekend remains until Selection Sunday. There are multiple games that could shift and change the playoff picture this weekend, making this the most important weekend of the FCS football season.

24 teams will make the 2025 FCS playoffs with 11 automatic bids (conference winners) and 13 At-large bids. This will be the first year that the Ivy League will participate in the playoffs, making the bubble even tighter than usual.

Below are updated predictions for the Top 16 seeds, auto-bids, at-large bids, the bracket, and which teams will be on the bubble after Week 12 of the FCS football season.

Auto Bids:

Big Sky: Montana State

CAA: Rhode Island

Ivy League: Harvard

MVFC: North Dakota State

NEC: Central Connecticut State

OVC-Big South: Tennessee Tech

Patriot League: Lehigh

Pioneer League: Drake

SoCon: Mercer

Southland: Stephen F. Austin

UAC: Abilene Christian

At-Large Bids:

Montana (Seed)

Tarleton State (Seed)

UC Davis (Seed)

Monmouth (Seed)

Villanova (Seed)

Illinois State (Seed)

South Dakota (Seed)

Youngstown State

North Dakota

Last Four In:

Lamar

Northern Arizona

Southeastern Louisiana

Dartmouth

Seeds:

1. North Dakota State

2. Montana State

3. Montana

4. Lehigh

5. Tarleton State

6. Tennessee Tech

7. Harvard

8. Mercer

9. Monmouth

10. Rhode Island

11. Abilene Christian

12. Stephen F. Austin

13. UC Davis

14. Illinois State

15. South Dakota

16. Villanova

First Four Out:

South Dakota State

New Hampshire

Gardner-Webb

William & Mary

Other Bubble Teams Left Out:

Southern Utah

Austin Peay

Lafayette

Western Carolina

Sacramento State

Projected First-Round Matchups:

Central Connecticut State at No. 9 Monmouth (Winner at No. 8 Mercer)

Dartmouth at No. 10 Rhode Island (Winner at No. 7 Tennessee Tech)

Lamar at No. 11 Abilene Christian (Winner at No. 6 Harvard)

Southeastern Louisiana at No. 12 Stephen F. Austin (Winner at No. 5 Tarleton State)

North Dakota at No. 13 UC Davis (Winner at No. 4 Lehigh)

Drake at No. 14 Illinois State (Winner at No. 3 Montana)

Northern Arizona at No. 15 South Dakota (Winner at No. 2 Montana State)

Youngstown State at No. 16 Villanova (Winner at No. 1 North Dakota State)

2025 FCS Football Playoff Predictions (Nov. 18, 2025) | FCS Football Central on SI

Quick Thoughts & Analysis:

As a weekly reminder, these predictions will continue to shift based on future results. These predictions are also through the eyes of the playoff committee, not what we personally would do. Updated predictions will be released on Saturday, potentially leading to significant changes in our bracket projections, depending on the outcomes of multiple key matchups.

There were no changes in our Top 8 seeds this week. The biggest question here is how far the loser of the Brawl of the Wild falls. In this projection, we had Montana State winning this weekend, moving the Bobcats to 10-2 (10-1 vs the FCS) and securing the No. 2 seed. In my opinion, at 11-1 (10-1 vs FCS), Montana would still have a good enough resume to be the No. 3 seed.

The only caveat here would be if the Brawl of the Wild results in a blowout. If either team loses by 14 or more points, the conversation shifts drastically. The loser in this scenario would most likely drop to the No. 4 or No. 5 seed behind Lehigh and Tarleton State. With a win this weekend, Lehigh would be 12-0 with quality wins over Lafayette, Yale, and Penn. Tarleton State is projected to finish 11-1 with an FBS win and quality wins over Austin Peay, Southern Utah, and West Georgia.

Monmouth is projected to finish 10-2 (10-1 vs FCS), including a quality win over Villanova. The Hawks' only loss came against New Hampshire, which is a bubble team, but they were without All-American quarterback Derek Robertson. Even without any true signature wins, Rhode Island will be locked into a Top 16 seed at 10-2 overall (10-1 vs FCS).

I believe the committee will reward Abilene Christian with a Top 16 seed for ranked wins over Tarleton State, West Georgia, Austin Peay, and Stephen F. Austin. The Wildcats should finish 8-4 overall (8-2 vs FCS), but have one of the most impressive resumes among all the candidates for a Top 16 seed. Stephen F. Austin is also a lock for a seed with a projected 10-2 overall record, which includes a ranked win over Lamar. The Lumberjacks would enter the playoffs on a 10-game winning streak.

UC Davis needs a win over Sacramento State to secure its spot, but a win should be enough to push the Aggies into a Top 16 seed. They'd be 8-3 overall (8-2 vs FCS) with quality wins over Southern Utah, Northern Arizona, and Sacramento State. I also think South Dakota has played its way into a Top 16 seed. The Coyotes have won three straight ranked games, finishing 8-4 overall (8-3 vs FCS). Villanova gets the final seed, finishing 9-2 overall (9-1 vs FCS), with its only loss coming against Monmouth.

As for unseeded teams, North Dakota finds its way into the field at 8-4 overall with key wins over Youngstown State and Southern Illinois. They would also have a head-to-head win over SDSU in this projection. Speaking of Youngstown State, the Penguins are firmly in the field at 8-4 overall (8-3 vs FCS). They would have quality wins over Illinois State and Southern Illinois.

Northern Arizona would also find itself in the field at 8-4 overall. The Lumberjacks would lack a ranked win, but will finish with a Top 15 SOS, and a then-ranked win over Incarnate Word. Out of all the bubble teams, the Lumberjacks will need to hope there are no chaos scenarios, because they could be one of the first teams pushed out if chaos shakes up the bubble.

Two Southland teams are projected to make the field, starting with Lamar, which should finish 9-3 overall (9-2 vs FCS). The Cardinals have signature wins over South Dakota and Southeastern Louisiana, which are better than most of the bubble this season.

Southeastern Louisiana is projected to be one of the last four teams in the field. The Lions should finish 9-3 (9-1 vs the FCS), but lack a signature win. Its only FCS loss is a two-point loss to Lamar, but there's no way a one-loss team should miss the playoffs. If they are left on the outside looking in for a 7-win team, we have lost the plot on what the FCS Playoffs are supposed to be.

Dartmouth is the final team in the field in these projections, finishing 8-2 overall. They will have the head-to-head win over New Hampshire, which is also on the bubble, along with a win over Central Connecticut State, which is in the field as the NEC champion. If I were the committee, I would take an 8-win Dartmouth over a 7-5 SDSU on a five-game losing streak.

The first team out of the field is South Dakota State, which finishes 7-5 overall in this projection. The Jackrabbits would still have quality wins over Sacramento State, Montana State, and Youngstown State, but they would have ended the season on a five-game losing streak. I don't see how the committee could argue this team deserves a bid. The team that won those early-season games doesn't exist anymore. Without Chase Mason, along with multiple other starters, the Jackrabbits aren't deserving of a postseason bid if they lose this weekend.

2025 FCS Playoff Schedule:

Playoff Selection Show: Nov. 23 (Noon ET, ESPNU)

First Round: Nov. 29

Second Round: Dec. 6

Quarterfinals: Dec. 12-13

Semifinals: Dec. 20

FCS National Championship: Jan. 5, 2026 (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

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