2025 FCS Playoffs Semifinal Preview & Prediction: Montana at Montana State

No. 2 seed Montana State hosts No. 3 seed Montana in the semifinals of the 2025 FCS Playoffs. Kickoff is scheduled for Saturday (Dec. 20) at 3 p.m. CT on ABC. This will be the first meeting between these programs in the FCS Playoffs. The Bobcats won the first matchup this season, defeating the Grizzlies in Missoula on Nov. 22.

The winner will advance to the FCS national championship in Nashville, Tennessee, where they will face the winner of Illinois State and No. 12 seed Villanova.

2025 Prediction Record: 156-52
2022-24 Record: 382-122

No. 3 Montana at No. 2 Montana State

Kickoff: 3 p.m. CT (ABC)

Line: Montana State (-5.5, FanDuel)

Series History: Montana leads 74-44-5

It doesn't get any bigger than this. One of the most historic rivalries in college football, meeting for the first time in the FCS Playoffs, with a chance to secure a spot in the FCS national championship game... This is what makes this sport special.

These teams met just 29 days ago in Missoula, where Montana State defeated Montana 31-28. It was the first win for a road team in this rivalry since 2018. There's a similar streak on the line this weekend, as Montana has not won in Bozeman since 2015. Home teams have a massive advantage in this rivalry, but also historically in the semifinals, where a road team hasn't won since 2016.

Regardless, this game still has to be played on the field. In the first game, Montana had a crucial turnover and missed a field goal in the second half, swinging the momentum and helping Montana State secure the win. The other x-factor was Montana State's ability to wear down Montana's front seven, which will be a point of emphasis again.

The Bobcats feature two of the best running backs in the country in Julius Davis and Adam Jones. The duo has combined for nearly 2,000 rushing yards and 21 rushing touchdowns. Montana State rolled up over 240 yards on 5.7 yards per carry in the first game. Can the Grizzlies slow down this rushing attack?

Montana has been much more effective in stopping the run throughout the playoffs, holding its first two opponents to 3.3 yards per carry. Solomon Tuliaupupu has been excellent the past two games, playing a key role in Montana's playoff wins. Peyton Wing and Caleb Otlewski will also be key players to watch, both serving as key pieces in the run game, but they can also be dangerous when Montana wants to be aggressive in pass-rush situations.

The real x-factor in this first matchup was Montana State quarterback Justin Lamson. Lamson has been extremely efficient all season, completing 72.3% of his passes for 2,683 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, and three interceptions. I thought his performance in Missoula was his best of the season. He remained effective through the air, but it was his ability to extend plays with his legs that became the difference.

Montana's defense generated plenty of pressure, recording four sacks, but Lamson made the Griz pay when they didn't get home. He averaged 6.4 yards per carry after contact, posting 83 of his 103 rushing yards after contact. Most of those came on scrambles, where he just found a way to escape the pocket and extend plays. I expect the Griz to be aggressive again, but they need to find a better way of boxing Lamson in on those plays.

Montana cornerback Kyon Loud has returned from injury since the last game. He's one of the best cornerbacks in the FCS, allowing only 10 catches on 31 targets for 136 yards in six games this season. Unfortunately, I don't expect Montana State to test Loud much on Saturday. In the first matchup, nearly 70% of Lamson's passes targeted a safety or linebacker. This will be a much bigger test for Micah Harper, TJ Rausch, Clay Oven, and Peyton Wing.

On the other side, Montana has been the most explosive offense in the postseason, averaging 6.95 yards per play in its two playoff games. In the first game, Montana State completely suffocated Montana's downfield passing attack. Keali'i Ah Yat only had two pass attempts that traveled over 10 yards downfield. It was a masterful performance by a young Montana State secondary.

The Grizzlies will have to find a way to push the ball downfield on Saturday. Ah Yat is playing his best football right now, averaging 332.5 passing yards per game with seven touchdowns and no turnovers in the playoffs. He's done an outstanding job at making the right reads and protecting the football; both will be keys if Montana is going to win this weekend.

The ultimate x-factor is wide receiver Michael Wortham, who only had one reception for three yards in the last matchup. He's been spectacular through the playoffs, recording 19 receptions for 314 yards and four total touchdowns. The Griz must be creative in finding ways to get the ball to Wortham. He's an electric playmaker and only needs one play to potentially change the trajectory of a game.

This game will be another test for a young but extremely talented Montana State secondary. It's led by safety Caden Dowler, who has recorded six interceptions, including a crucial pick-six in the first game, and he also leads the team with 90 tackles. Carson Williams, Jhase McMillan, and Seth Johnson have really stepped up as underclassmen. Safety Tayden Gray is an underrated piece in the secondary, totaling 45 tackles and two interceptions this season.

Montana State's defensive line has come alive in the playoffs, recording 14 tackles for loss and seven sacks in two games. The Grizzlies have to keep Ah Yat clean in the pocket, but face a tough test against Kenneth Eiden IV and Zac Crews. Eiden was unstoppable last weekend, posting three sacks with two forced fumbles. Also, keep an eye on the health of defensive tackle Paul Brott. He's an important piece on the interior of this Montana State defense, but was banged up last week against SFA.

The final piece of this Montana offense is All-American running back Eli Gillman, who had 132 yards in the first game. My biggest concern is that Montana really struggled to run the ball against South Dakota. That's a recipe for disaster against this Montana State defense, which has held its past two opponents to 3.75 yards per carry. Gillman needs to have a big game, creating opportunities for Ah Yat to push the ball downfield.

All the historical data suggests Montana State should have the advantage on Saturday afternoon. Not only have the Bobcats been outstanding at home, winning 43 of their last 45 games at Bobcat Stadium, but road teams just haven't found much success in the semifinals. The Bobcats have also won seven of the past nine games against the Grizzlies.

I'm expecting this to be a high-scoring game, where it might come down to one clutch defensive stop or a turnover, like it did last game. Turnovers, third-down efficiency, and special teams always play a massive role in these semifinal games where every point matters. I picked Montana State in the first game because I trusted the defense to make a play to win, but I've really struggled with this pick.

This postseason has been filled with unexpected upsets and multiple teams finding ways to win on the road. I think the chaos continues, and Montana finds a way to make a clutch play and win a one-score game.

Prediction: Montana (35-34)

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