2025 FCS Playoffs Semifinal Preview & Prediction: Illinois State at Villanova

Illinois State will travel to No. 12 seed Villanova in the semifinals of the 2025 FCS Playoffs. Kickoff is scheduled for Saturday (Dec. 20) at 6:30 p.m. CT on ESPN2. This will be the second meeting between these programs, with the Redbirds defeating the Wildcats in the first matchup in 1976.

The winner will advance to the FCS national championship in Nashville, Tennessee, where they will face the winner of No. 2 seed Montana State and No. 3 seed Montana.

2025 Prediction Record: 156-52
2022-24 Record: 382-122

Illinois State at No. 12 Villanova

Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. CT (ESPN2)

Line: Illinois State (-2.5, FanDuel)

Series History: Illinois State leads 1-0

An unseeded Illinois State team, which lost its final regular-season game by 30 points, will travel to No. 12 seed Villanova, which has somehow been overlooked all postseason despite winning 11 consecutive games. Exactly what everyone predicted when the bracket was released, right?

These have been two of the most miraculous runs in FCS Playoff history, and the journey isn't over. One of these teams will have a chance to shock the world and win the FCS national championship in Nashville on Jan. 5. Regardless of who wins this game, it'll be a story about defying the odds and exceeding expectations throughout the postseason.

Both teams will take the same offensive approach on Saturday night. It starts with the run game as both teams feature talented running backs, who have thrived behind experienced offensive lines.

It's going to be a heavy dose of Victor Dawson for the Redbirds. He's been the workhorse throughout the postseason, rushing for 357 yards and one touchdown in the first three playoff games. We haven't seen Wenkers Wright since the first round, but Seth Glatz had a big game last weekend, totaling 85 rushing yards and two touchdowns on only five carries.

For Villanova, sophomore Ja'briel Mace is slowly becoming a star since David Avit's injury in early November. Since Avit was sidelined, Mace has nine touchdowns and is averaging 136.2 rushing yards per game. Isaiah Ragland is a solid No. 2 option, rushing for 721 yards this season, including a season-high of 152 yards in the first round against Harvard.

Both defenses have been excellent against the run in the postseason. The Redbirds are holding opponents to 3.67 yards per carry, while the Wildcats are allowing only 3.36 yards per carry.

Illinois State's defense is led by All-American linebacker Tye Niekamp, who has a team-high 150 tackles and 13 tackles for loss. The defensive line has also been playing at an elite level, with Garret Steffen and Jake Anderson causing a ton of havoc from the interior. The duo has combined for 17.5 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks.

The Wildcats have their own All-American linebacker in Shane Hartzell, who leads the team with 94 tackles, 17.5 tackles for loss, and 8.5 sacks. Christian Sapp and Richie Kimmel are two other names to watch here, but the real x-factor could be redshirt freshman Omari Bursey. He's been outstanding throughout this playoff run, recording 4.5 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks in the past three games.

Even with both teams looking to establish the run, this one may come down to which quarterback can protect the football and make a game-winning play when it matters most. We have contrasting styles at quarterback, making this an extremely interesting matchup to analyze.

Tommy Rittenhouse is a gunslinger who isn't afraid to take risks, which sometimes allows him to make unbelievable plays, but can also lead to costly turnovers. He's completed 65.5% of his passes for 3,006 passing yards, 34 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions this season. One x-factor could be Rittenhouse's ability to evade pressure and extend plays with his legs.

On the other side, Pat McQuaide has been excellent, throwing for 2,924 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, and only three interceptions this season. He's not going to take as many chances as Rittenhouse, but he isn't afraid to push the ball downfield when the opportunity presents itself. Wide receiver Luke Colella has been his No. 1 target, catching 71 passes for 1,013 yards and eight touchdowns.

The biggest x-factor in this game is All-American wide receiver Daniel Sobkowicz, who will be the best player on the field Saturday night. Sobkowicz is a legit NFL prospect who can win 1-on-1 matchups and is a true red-zone threat. In three playoff games, Sobkowicz has 22 receptions for 306 receiving yards and five touchdowns.

Sobkowicz's ability to make plays in the red zone is going to be key this weekend. Villanova has been elite in the red zone throughout the playoffs. The Wildcats have only allowed a touchdown on 44.4% of postseason red zone opportunities, including back-to-back red zone stops to win the past two games.

Illinois State has been a bit more effective at forcing turnovers, ranking No. 6 nationally in turnovers forced. Cornerback Shadwel Nkuba II leads the Redbirds with five interceptions, while four other players have recorded at least two interceptions this season. Villanova entered the postseason with one of the lowest turnover rates, but has forced at least one turnover in each of its three playoff games.

The Wildcats have also found ways to get after opposing quarterbacks, recording eight sacks in the playoffs. The Redbirds have one of the best offensive lines in the FCS, but if the Wildcats can generate pressure on Rittenhouse, they should have an excellent chance to win this game. Only one team (Youngstown State) has recorded more than two sacks against Illinois State this year.

Interestingly, Villanova has the longest active home winning streak in the country at 23 straight games. On the other side, Illinois State is 14-1 vs FCS opponents on the road over the past two seasons, including an 8-0 mark this year.

All the statistics point to this being a low-scoring game, making every possession more valuable. In a game where one play can change everything, I think Sobkowicz and Rittenhouse are the difference makers here. There's a good chance Sobkowicz makes a key play down the stretch, while the stingy Illinois State defense finds a way to steal a possession with a turnover.

In all my years of covering the FCS, I can't remember two semifinal games that were this hard to predict. This year's games are going to be extremely competitive and could go either way. I've flipped my pick multiple times throughout the week, but I'm going to lean towards Illinois State in a one-score game.

Prediction: Illinois State (27-23)

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