ESPN SP+ Model Predicts Final Score For Montana-North Dakota

No. 16 North Dakota will travel to Missoula to face No. 5 Montana in the biggest FCS matchup on the Week 3 slate.

Montana opened its season with a 42-17 win over Central Washington last weekend. North Dakota has received some much-deserved hype after a competitive game against Kansas State and a 50-20 win over Portland State in Week 2.

The Grizzlies lead the overall series 15-10-1, including an impressive 7-2 record in Missoula. Montana is also 3-0 against North Dakota in Washington-Grizzly Stadium. Despite the home success, North Dakota has won the past two games, including last year's 27-24 upset over the Grizzlies in Grand Forks.

ESPN's Bill Connelly released his score predictions for all Week 3 FCS games using his SP+ formula. The model is a tempo and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency.

According to Connelly's formula, Montana is expected to win convincingly, with a projected 37-25 win over North Dakota.

The SP+ model is high on the Grizzlies, ranking Montana No. 4 nationally in SP+ after Week 2. The Grizzlies have the No. 4 offense in SP+ rating, while ranking No. 16 defensively. Conversely, North Dakota is ranked No. 17 in SP+ rating, with an offensive rating of 38.6 (No. 5) and defensive rating of 28.1 (No. 76).

There should be no shortage of explosive plays on the ground, starting with Montana running back Eli Gillman. He led the Grizzlies with 198 rushing yards and three touchdowns in Week 2, averaging 13.2 yards per touch. Stevie Rocker Jr. added another 72 yards and averaged over 14 yards per carry.

North Dakota's offense also features a talented group of running backs, led by Sawyer Seidl and Gaven Ziebarth. The Fighting Hawks have also upgraded at quarterback with Jerry Kaminski, who has posted 395 passing yards and five passing touchdowns, adding another three scores on the ground.

Kickoff is scheduled for 1 pm CT on ESPN+.

More FCS Football News

Follow FCS Football Central on social media for ongoing coverage of FCS football, including on X, Facebook, and YouTube.