FCS Football Playoff Picture: Oct. 29 (Week 10)

After each week, we will look at each conference and examine which teams should be considered locks, contenders, or have work to do. 24 teams will make the 2025 FCS playoffs with 11 automatic bids (conference winners) and 13 At-large bids.

“Locks” are teams that have clinched an auto bid or have a strong enough resume to earn an at-large bid. “Should Be In” teams are on track to be in the playoffs, but must avoid slip-ups. “Work to Do” teams still need stronger resumes to have a shot at the postseason.

Below is a breakdown of the playoff picture conference by conference entering Week 10.

Big Sky

Locks: Montana

Montana joins the field as one of the locks after a Friday night road win over Sacramento State. The Grizzlies will be a heavy favorite in their next three games and should be 11-0 entering the Brawl of the Wild against Montana State. Montana's sights are now set on a potential Top 2 seed.

Should Be In: Montana State

Montana State took care of business coming out of its bye week with a 34-17 win over Cal Poly. The Bobcats still need two more wins to reach 8 wins, putting them in "Lock" status, but they will be heavy favorites to do so with Northern Colorado and Weber State on deck.

Work To Do: UC Davis, Northern Arizona, Sacramento State, Eastern Washington, Idaho

UC Davis moved to 6-1, remaining undefeated against the FCS, after defeating Northern Colorado. The Aggies are at a slight disadvantage compared to fellow At-Large hopefuls because of their canceled Week 0 game, which leaves them with only 11 games. The Aggies are still in the race to win the Big Sky, but if not, I think their magic number will be 8 wins, meaning they need to win two of their final four games. If they find a way to win three of the last four games, they would have a strong argument for a Top 4 seed.

Northern Arizona is the Big Sky team with the next best chance to make the field. The Lumberjacks picked up a big road win over Idaho State on Saturday. They will face Idaho this week, and their last four games are fairly light as they avoid other top Big Sky teams. If they finish 3-1 over the final four games, they should be in the field. If they can run the table, a potential Top 16 seed will be in play.

Sacramento State fell to 4-3 against the FCS, 4-4 overall, and most likely needs to run the table to make the playoffs. This would include a win over UC Davis, which will be a tall task in the Causeway Classic. Eastern Washington is now 3-1 in Big Sky play, clinging to its playoff hopes at 4-4 overall. The Eagles' chances are not great, but if they were to run the table, I would project this team sneaking in. Idaho rebounded with a much-needed win in Week 9, but still sits at 3-5 overall. The Vandals need to win out to even have a chance at the field, and that still might not be enough.

UC Davis Aggies quarterback Caden Pinnick (12) | Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

CAA

Locks: None
Should Be In: Monmouth

Monmouth labored a bit in a win over Hampton without All-American quarterback Derek Robertson, but found a way to move to 7-0 against the FCS. In their last four games, the Hawks face three of the worst teams in the conference, along with a New Hampshire team that hasn't been competitive with the top of the conference. Monmouth should feel good about making the field, but must avoid a letdown to secure a high seed.

Work To Do: Villanova, Rhode Island, Maine, New Hampshire, William & Mary, Stony Brook

Elon and Towson were eliminated with losses in Week 9, both picking up their fifth loss. Villanova remains in the best position to secure an at-large bid, with their only loss coming against Monmouth. The Wildcats have already beaten William & Mary and Elon, while games against Towson and Stony Brook could be tricky, they really should have a clear path to 8 wins.

Rhode Island is 7-1 against the FCS, but has a bad loss to Brown, and it's possible that the Rams will not have played a playoff team on their entire schedule. The Rams have three games left and likely need two wins to secure their spot in the field. If they win all three, they would be in position for a Top 16 seed.

New Hampshire, Maine, and Stony Brook all picked up huge wins over fellow playoff hopefuls in Week 9. All of these teams are sitting at 4 losses, none are guaranteed an at-large bid at 8 wins, and they need to win out to have a chance to sneak in. Stony Brook and Maine play in an elimination game this weekend, while New Hampshire enjoys a bye week before a massive showdown with Monmouth.

William & Mary is the final playoff hopeful for the CAA, but its chances took a massive hit after losing to New Hampshire. The Tribe has four winnable games remaining, but it's very likely they will not have a win over a team with a winning record on their resume. They would need a ton of help on the bubble, even at 8-4.

Ivy League

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Harvard, Penn, Princeton, Dartmouth, Yale

The Ivy League had some big games last weekend, with Harvard defeating Princeton and Yale knocking off Penn. The playoff picture did not really change; however, with the previously mentioned teams and Dartmouth all having one or fewer conference losses, they all have a shot at the auto bid.

A 9-1 Harvard or 8-2 Dartmouth would have the best chance for an at-large bid. The Big Green holds non-conference wins over New Hampshire and projected NEC champions Central Connecticut State. Dartmouth and Harvard will face off on Saturday in one of the most important Week 10 games.

Harvard quarterback Jaden Craig (1) | Edward Monigan IV (Harvard Athletics)

MVFC

Locks: North Dakota State

North Dakota State picked up a huge win over South Dakota State in the Dakota Marker on Saturday. The win secured NDSU's spot in the field, not that it was ever in doubt before Saturday, but the Bison picked up their 8th win of the season. This team is the overwhelming favorite to get the No. 1 overall seed. They have two more challenges against Youngstown State and North Dakota, but the Bison should be heavy favorites to win every other game on the schedule.

Should Be In: South Dakota State

South Dakota State fell to NDSU in the Dakota Marker, but was without starting quarterback Chase Mason. The good news is their playoff life is still close to a lock, and should reach that status with a win over Indiana State. After that, the Jackrabbits will just be for playoff seeding. Games against Illinois State and North Dakota will have significant implications, potentially landing SDSU a seed between No. 2 and No. 8, depending on how they finish the season.

Work To Do: North Dakota, Youngstown State, Illinois State, Southern Illinois, South Dakota

North Dakota is still in a great spot to make the field, sitting at 6-2 overall, and with some of the best performances in the country. They are projected to finish with the No. 1 SOS in the FCS, and would have a solid argument to make the field with only 7 wins. However, the Hawks have their sights set on a Top 4 seed, with games against SDSU and NDSU still on the schedule. The push for a top seed starts with a road matchup against South Dakota on Saturday.

Speaking of South Dakota, the Coyotes are in a tough spot after a loss to Illinois State this past weekend. At 5-4 overall, the rest of their schedule will feature other playoff hopefuls, including two games against Top 6 teams in the FCS. South Dakota will need to win all three to feel secure, and 2-1 to even have a chance to get an at-large bid.

Illinois State finally defeated a playoff contender and now sits at 5-3 overall. The Redbirds have to take care of business the next two weeks against the bottom of the conference before facing SDSU and Southern Illinois to finish the year. Southern Illinois is also 5-3 overall and still has games against Youngstown State, USD, and Illinois State remaining. The Salukis will need to go 2-1 over that stretch and might need to be 3-0 to secure their spot in the field. There's a real possibility that Southern Illinois and Illinois State will face off in an elimination game on the final weekend of the season.

Youngstown State has played well over the past few weeks, moving to 5-3 overall. There's no time to ease up for the Penguins, as they will face NDSU and Southern Illinois in back-to-back weeks. To guarantee a spot, they'll need to find a way to win one of those games. If they lose both and finish 7-5, it'll be a nervous morning on Selection Sunday.

NEC

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Central Connecticut State, Duquesne, Stonehill

Duquesne had a puzzling loss to Wagner this weekend, falling behind Central Connecticut State in the standings. However, both teams still control their own destiny for the auto bid when they play in three weeks. The loss also opened the door for Stonehill, which only has one conference loss to Duquesne. If Stonehill beats CCSU and then CCSU beats Duquesne next week, the Skyhawks could steal the auto bid.

OVC-Big South

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Tennessee Tech, Gardner-Webb, UT Martin

Tennessee Tech is still most likely the only bid that will come from this conference. The Golden Eagles will likely finish with a SOS outside the Top 100, but have been one of the most dominant teams in the country. The Golden Eagles will move into the "Should Be In" tier with a win over Gardner-Webb this weekend.

Gardner-Webb barely remains on the bubble after a win over Lindenwood. The Runnin' Bulldogs will likely need to beat Tennessee Tech to remain in the playoff picture. UT Martin is also hanging around the bubble, even at 3-5, after a win over Gardner-Webb a few weeks ago. The Skyhawks are 3-1 in conference play, and if they defeat Tennessee Tech, they would be in a strong position to secure the auto bid.

Tennessee Tech wide receiver Tre' Holloway — Tennessee Tech Athletics

Patriot League

Locks: None
Should Be In: Lehigh

Lehigh has a solid resume at 8-0 with wins over Duquesne and top Ivy League teams Penn and Yale. The Hawks will also be heavy favorites in their remaining four games and have a chance to earn a Top 8 seed. Since two of their last four opponents are below .500, Lehigh will likely need to reach 10 wins to guarantee an At-Large bid, but they are tracking toward a Top 8 seed.

Work To Do: Lafayette

Lafayette is the biggest threat standing in front of their rival, sitting at 3-0 in conference play. The Leopards will not have an At-Large resume, but if they beat Lehigh, Lafayette can still afford to drop one game before the end of the year due to the tiebreaker. These teams will play on Nov. 22 to end the year, likely deciding the Patriot League title. This will be a conference race to monitor as Lehigh could be a potential At-Large bid thief if Lafayette wins the auto bid.

Pioneer League

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Butler, Dayton, Presbyterian, Drake

After Dayton upset Presbyterian last weekend, we now have a four-team race in the Pioneer League. Dayton, Butler, and Presbyterian have all beaten each other, with only one conference loss each. Drake is now the leader for the auto bid, sitting at 4-0 in conference play, but still has games against Butler and Dayton on the schedule. Presbyterian has no games remaining against the top teams in the conference, yet it also has the best shot at an At-Large bid. Unfortunately, the odds of that are extremely low. Drake and Butler play in a huge game this weekend, which could have massive postseason implications.

SoCon

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Mercer, Western Carolina, Chattanooga

In Week 9, Mercer and Chattanooga destroyed their opponents, while Western Carolina enjoyed a bye week, so nothing really changed in the SoCon race. Week 10 brings us a huge matchup between the Catamounts and Mocs, while Mercer faces a tricky road test against Furman.

Nobody is a lock in the SoCon after a brutal out-of-conference performance. Mercer and Western Carolina have two of the most fascinating resumes in the country. Both teams had quarterback changes midseason, for different reasons, and both are undefeated with their current starters. The committee considers player availability, so this could be taken into account.

The best case for the SoCon is that Mercer and Western Carolina win their remaining FCS games, so that the loser of the head-to-head matchup will still have a solid At-Large resume. Mercer would be 8-3 in this scenario, while Western Carolina would be 8-4. Historically, 8-win SoCon teams have had a good chance of sneaking into the field, but the bubble looks to be tight this season. However, Mercer cannot stumble against Furman, Western Carolina cannot lose to ETSU, and neither team can fall to Chattanooga.

Speaking of Chattanooga, the Mocs are sitting at 3-1 in conference play, with games against both Mercer and Western Carolina still on the schedule. They control their own destiny to earn the auto bid. The Mocs won't have a shot to get into the playoffs as an At-Large, but the path is still there to sneak into the field.

Mercer Bears safety Carmelo O'Neal (7) | Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Southland

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Lamar, Stephen F. Austin, Southeastern Louisiana, UTRGV

This might be the most exciting conference race in the FCS this season, with four teams sitting at 6-2 or better. The Southland has an excellent shot at getting three teams into the field. The biggest part of this is that Southeastern Louisiana and Stephen F. Austin do not play each other, giving both a chance to reach 9-10 wins. The Lumberjacks have a non-Division I win, which means they need to make a push to 10 wins to feel safe.

Lamar is the other team in this auto-bid race. The Cardinals are currently 6-0 against the FCS, including a key out-of-conference win over South Dakota. Lamar has flirted with losses each of the last four games, but continues to find ways to win. They finish the year with UIW, SLU, SFA, and McNeese. Even at 2-2 over that stretch, Lamar will have a solid resume at 9-3 overall, assuming they don't get blown out in either loss.

Who would have thought UTRGV would find itself in this position? The Vaqueros are 6-2 after a dominant win over UIW, but are still a long shot due to three non-Division I wins. At 10-2, they may get consideration for an At-Large; however, I think they will have to win out to earn that consideration. That starts this weekend against Stephen F. Austin.

UAC

Locks: Tarleton State

Tarleton State added another dominant win to its resume, dismantling Eastern Kentucky on the road. The Texans have their sights set on a Top 2 seed but will need to keep winning impressively, which starts with a tough Top 25 road matchup against Abilene Christian.

Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Abilene Christian, Austin Peay, Southern Utah

The UAC is in a bit of a weird spot behind Tarleton State. Most experts (and metrics) will tell you this is the third-best conference in the FCS, but the problem is that this means the conference is prone to beating itself up, which is exactly what has happened. There's a real scenario that the UAC doesn't get a second bid, because no other team reaches 8 wins.

Austin Peay and Abilene Christian have the two best resumes in this group. The Govs hold a ranked win over West Georgia, which is not postseason eligible, and a dominant FBS win over Middle Tennessee State. Abilene Christian has three ranked wins and is 4-2 against the FCS. However, both teams have already lost three games and have yet to play Tarleton State.

To feel safe, Austin Peay needs to win all but one of their final four games. Abilene Christian will need to win out to feel comfortable at 8-4, but may be the best candidate to make the field at 7-5 with its resume. They will finish with a Top 10 SOS, and two of their losses are to FBS teams. However, it's not a guarantee, and at 4-4 overall, they are right on the edge of the bubble.

The Govs also have a huge trip to Southern Utah, which is currently 3-5 overall, and has played a ton of good teams in close games. Austin Peay needs a win to feel safe, but the Thunderbirds may be a long shot to make the field if they win out and finish 7-5 overall. They would need a ton of help, but it'd be mathematically possible, and their four remaining games are all winnable.

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