Behind The Numbers: Week 1 FCS Football Review

The Behind The Numbers series is now back in full swing on FCS Football Central on SI.

Each week, we will highlight a couple of marquee national matchups, and then use success rate to get a deeper look than what the final score may tell you about what happened in the game. We will take a look at the most dominant teams of the week, which teams outplayed their opponent but made too many mistakes to get a win on the field, and which teams got outplayed despite escaping with a win.

Success rate takes out a lot of the underlying factors of a game and strictly tells you how well a team played down-to-down. While outliers can swing an individual game, success rate can be a better indicator of what future performance will be. A play is "successful" if 50% of the yards needed are gained on first down, 70% are gained on second down, and 100% are gained on third or fourth down.

The Average Success Rate for a college football program is about 40%, while closer to 50% is considered excellent, and anything under 30% is deemed poor.

We take a look behind the numbers from this weekend's FCS action in Week 1.

South Dakota State 20, Sacramento State 3

Success Rate: SDSU (44.3%), Sac State (22.4%)

The most-anticipated Week 1 showdown ended up being a bit anticlimactic as South Dakota State dominated Sacramento State in Dan Jackson's head coaching debut. The game ended up being more of a defensive battle. SDSU averaged 5.4 yards per play, while Sacramento State averaged a putrid 2.7 yards per play. The Hornets couldn't do anything offensively, while the Jackrabbits struggled with pressure and converting in the red zone. Sacramento State only had 136 yards of total offense and went a combined 2-of-17 on third and fourth down.

For SDSU, the Jackrabbits struggled with allowing pressure and preventing negative plays. They allowed 11 tackles for loss (7% TFL rate), and Chase Mason was sacked seven times. This means the Jackrabbits allowed a sack on 20% of dropbacks. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), the offensive line was only responsible for two of the seven sacks, meaning Mason was responsible for the other five. While he did a great job of finding open receivers and limiting turnovers, he'll learn how to get rid of the ball quicker. Mason was credited with 0 turnover-worthy plays, while Jaden Rashada had 6.1 turnover-worthy plays.

The other area of struggle for the Jackrabbits was the red zone. The Jackrabbits had the ball inside the 10-yard line five times, coming away with only 17 points in those trips. In fact, SDSU only scored 2.83 points per redzone trip. At times, SDSU's offense struggled to generate a push in short-yardage situations. In fact, on run plays inside the five-yard line, they only converted on one of six plays (16.7%). Some could be attributed to mistakes, but most of these situations were failures because the offensive line did not generate any push up front.

On the plus side, Julius Loughridge had a fantastic debut for South Dakota State. Loughridge gained 92 yards after contact and averaged 4.18 yards after contact. They had a diverse rushing attack with 12 zone runs and 10 gap runs (Counter/Power). He had six runs over 10 yards, showing his ability to generate explosive plays.

Lehigh 21, Richmond 14

Success Rate: Lehigh (41.3%), Richmond (33.3%)

Lehigh started its season with a massive conference win, led by a dominant defensive performance. They held the Spiders to 3.5 yards per play, and Richmond's only offensive touchdown came off an interception where the drive started inside the 30-yard line. In fact, Richmond's longest drive of the day was a mere 37 yards. Richmond's offense had five drives in which they gained five yards or less. Lehigh had two sacks, but the pressure they generated made even more of a difference. Kyle Wickersham was pressured on 43% of his dropbacks.

On the other side of the ball, sophomore quarterback Hayden Johnson had an up-and-down game. He did make two big-time throws, including a 29-yard strike to Geoffrey Jamiel for a touchdown on fourth down. Lehigh's wide receivers also had a few drops; Johnson's "drop-adjusted completion percentage" was 66.7%.

Who Were The Most Dominant Teams In Week 1?

In this section, we will highlight the teams that were the most dominant in success rate margin. This will highlight which teams truly dominated, even if the final score hides what really happened. Games against non-Division I opponents were excluded.

North Dakota State (Net SR: 37.7%)
ETSU (Net SR: 26.8%)
Southern Utah (Net SR: 24.8%)
South Dakota State (Net SR: 21.9%)
Georgetown (Net SR: 18.5%)
Monmouth (Net SR: 18.4%)
South Carolina State (Net SR: 12.9%)
Austin Peay (Net SR: 11.9%)

North Dakota State started the season with one of the most dominant wins of the weekend against The Citadel. The Bison cruised with 7.6 yards per play, while only allowing 2.7 yards per play. The Citadel only had one red zone appearance, which ended with a huge goal-line stand by the Bison. Linebacker Logan Kopp led the Bison defense with nine total tackles and 2.5 tackles for loss.

The two-quarterback system worked for ETSU, and the Buccaneers looked like the best team in the SoCon in Week 1. The rushing attack was explosive, generating eight carries of 15 yards or more, gaining over 200 rushing yards on those eight carries. The defense looks the part, collecting nine tackles for loss and four sacks.

Lots of people were impressed with Idaho State in Week 0, but that came to a halt after Southern Utah dominated the Bengals. This was one of the most explosive, efficient offensive performances of the weekend. The Thunderbirds averaged 7.5 yards per play and converted 9-of-15 third and fourth-down attempts. They also scored a touchdown on three of their four red zone opportunities.

Georgetown had an incredible performance, gaining 543 yards of total offense on 8.6 yards per play. The Hoyas averaged over 15 yards per completion, while running back Savion Hart posted 123 yards and two touchdowns on only eight carries, for an average of 15.4 yards per touch.

Monmouth needed a huge comeback to defeat Colgate on the road, but the Hawks still dominated the game down-to-down. Explosive plays from wide receiver Treyvhon Saunders and four first-half interceptions put Monmouth in an early hole. They still managed to average 6.7 yards per carry and 10.9 yards per pass attempt.

South Carolina State completely dominated Wofford's offense, which puts them in this section despite only winning by one point. Wofford finished with only 135 yards of total offense, averaging 2.6 yards per play. Wofford quarterback Jayden Whitaker finished 6-of-21 for an abysmal 56 passing yards. Wofford's only points came on defense and special teams. They had two returns for touchdowns and a safety.

Austin Peay notched the second FBS upset of the weekend over Middle Tennessee State. The Govs' defense held the Blue Raiders to 109 passing yards and only 44 yards rushing. Outside of the two touchdown drives, MTSU only gained 42 yards on its other 11 drives combined.

Which Games Conflicted With Success Rate?

Each week, this section will highlight teams that won the success rate battle but still lost the game. They outperformed their opponent down-to-down, but lost because of turnovers, penalties, special teams, or explosive plays.

Howard 10, Florida A&M 9 (FAMU 36.5%, Howard 23.7%)
Gardner-Webb 52, Western Carolina 45 (WCU 46.2%, GWU 35.6%)
Washington State 13, Idaho 10 (Idaho 44.4%, WSU 34.5%)
New Hampshire 27, North Carolina Central 10 (NCCU 42.8%, UNH 34.7%)
Furman 23, William & Mary 21 (W&M 48.5%, Furman 40.6%)
Presbyterian 15, Mercer 10 (Mercer 43.3%, Presbyterian 35.7%)

Florida A&M held Howard to 195 yards of total offense, 3.3 yards per play, six three-and-outs, and nine drives of 23 yards or less. Despite the defensive dominance, the Rattlers lost the game due to their failures in the red zone. They settled for four field goal attempts in the red zone, coming away with only nine points. Red zone field goals = losing teams.

Western Carolina held a 35-7 lead in this game, outplaying Gardner-Webb the whole game, down-to-down, but gave up 52 points and lost in a historic comeback. In fact, Gardner-Webb scored 52 points on a 35.6% success rate, which is frankly hard to do. Western Carolina allowed 292 passing yards on only 13 completions, which is an atrocious average of 22.5 yards per completion.

Idaho lost to Washington State despite winning the rushing battle 188 yards to three yards because the Vandals couldn't manage to generate any explosive plays through the air. Washington State completed five passes for 15 yards, while Idaho only totaled 33 passing yards, the longest being 12 yards.

New Hampshire was largely anemic offensively outside of their three touchdown drives. North Carolina Central could not find a way to successfully sustain drives when it mattered. The Eagles only got three points out of two red zone opportunities, while also converting on only 3-of-14 third and fourth down attempts.

William & Mary averaged 5.3 yards per play and held Furman to 3.7 yards per play, largely outplaying them. The Tribe was held back by scoring zero points on two of their five red zone trips. Also, Furman's only touchdowns in the game came from a pick-six and a drive that was set up by Devin Hester Jr.'s 75-yard kick return.

Mercer got embarrassed by explosive plays in the passing game, allowing Presbyterian to complete six passes of more than 20 yards. Collin Hurst completed 25-of-38 passes for 303 passing yards and one touchdown. The Bears also struggled to establish the run, averaging a subpar 3.6 yards per carry.

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