Behind The Numbers: Week 3 FCS Football Preview

Week 3 of the 2026 college football season is finally here. We have another edition of our "Behind the Numbers" series here at FCS Football Central.

Our goal with this new addition is to highlight teams every week and bring you what I think will be the most important statistic to monitor for that specific game. This isn't a comprehensive preview of the game; we will have that in another article each week, but it will allow me to give you important tidbits on a wide variety of games throughout the season.

Let's take a deep dive into the biggest Week 3 games across the FCS.

No. 9 Youngstown State at No. 2 South Dakota State

Which team can stay ahead of the chain and win in the red zone?

This is a fantastic matchup between what has been the most efficient offense in Youngstown State (61% Off SR) and the most efficient defense in South Dakota State (30% Def SR). In last year's matchup, Youngstown State was not good in key moments; specifically, the Penguins went 4-of-13 on third down and came away with zero points in two trips inside SDSU territory.

Youngstown State has been the most effective passing team in the FCS behind Beau Brungard and an improved wide receiver corps. I expect the Penguins to challenge this new SDSU secondary on early downs to try to stay out of 3rd-and-long situations. YSU and SDSU both lead the country in stuff rate allowed (9%), meaning neither team has allowed many negative plays. This is going to be one of the biggest keys for Youngstown State.

The biggest weakness for SDSU has been efficiency on 3rd down and scoring touchdowns in red zone opportunities. The Jackrabbits have only scored six touchdowns on 15 red zone opportunities. Both of these issues could be mitigated by a commitment to the run game. The Penguins currently rank 80th in defensive rushing success (47.7%), while SDSU has been excellent on the ground, ranking 8th nationally in rushing success rate (53.7%).

Despite last week's blowout, Youngstown State allowed 6.38 yards per carry to Duquesne running backs. In the 2025 matchup, SDSU had its best rushing performance of the season. If the Jacks can avoid turnovers, it's hard to imagine SDSU not having plenty of success on the ground. I wouldn't be surprised if SDSU tried to dominate time of possession and keep Beau Brungard off the field.

Ultimately, keep an eye on early-down play calling. I'd expect Youngstown State to throw it early and often, while South Dakota State will lean on the run early in this game. This will make 3rd/4th-down and red zone opportunities even more valuable for these teams on Saturday.

No. 14 Austin Peay at No. 17 West Florida

Can West Florida limit Austin Peay's explosive plays?

West Florida has had an incredible start to their Division I tenure, and now has the benefit of hosting one of the UAC favorites with an extra week to rest and prepare. Both teams boast Top 20 offenses (APSU: 16th, UWF: 20th), and both defenses are solid as well, ranking among the Top 40 (UWF: 33rd, APSU: 40th) nationally.

A lot of UWF's success has been tied to turnovers, along with some key plays on special teams. The Argos have forced 7 turnovers in two games, including two pick-sixes. Against Central Arkansas, a special teams return or turnover set up the UWF offense inside UCA territory. Austin Peay is going to have to take care of the ball, not giving UWF advantageous field position. If UWF continues to force turnovers at a high rate, the Argos are going to have an excellent chance to pull off the upset.

On the other side, Austin Peay has shown itself to be the most explosive, dangerous offense in the country. They can do it on the ground and through the air, generating 14 plays of 20 or more yards this season, which includes 8 plays of 40 yards or more. All-American quarterback Chris Parson leads the charge, while wide receivers Denver Harper (37 YPC) and Marvin Sims are real problems. Running backs Kaden Williams and Courtland Simmons both average over 6 yards per carry.

The biggest potential problem for West Florida? Their defense has been very solid down to down, but they rank 106th nationally in explosive plays allowed. This means they aren't allowing successful plays often, but when they do, they've gone for huge gains. Austin Peay showed that this offense can be patient and wait for opportunities to hit explosive plays against Gardner-Webb. This may decide which team emerges with the win in Pensacola this weekend.

No. 18 South Carolina State at Furman

Will Furman be able to move the ball at all?

South Carolina State has played two non-Division I teams, along with a struggling Florida A&M team. However, that should not discount the fact that the Bulldogs have been the most dominant team in the entire FCS. They lead the country in both offensive and defensive success rates.

Their 12% defensive success leads the entire FCS by over 12%, which is due to excellent defensive line play. The Bulldogs have 28 TFLs in 3 games, led by Ka'Von Chisolm and Jordan Dollard, who each have 5.5 TFLs. Unfortunately, Furman ranks 87th in the country with 7 TFLs per game allowed and 71st in yards per play.

While the Paladins got an impressive road win over Mercer last week, the offense did not look very good. It was one of the worst down-to-down performances we've seen this season, finishing with a 27% success rate. It's hard to see Furman finding much offensive success in this game.

This game likely comes down to how well South Carolina State can run the ball. The Bulldogs lead the country at 7.91 yards per carry, rushing for 332 yards per game, including Mason Pickett-Hicks, who ranks 3rd nationally in rushing yards. Furman is the best run defense that South Carolina State has seen, but they still only rank 62nd nationally, allowing 4.62 yards per carry.

No. 8 Rhode Island at Stony Brook

Can Stony Brook's offense execute in the first half, like it has in the second half?

In two FCS games, Stony Brook has scored 20 first-half points, but has looked like a different team after halftime, scoring 50 second-half points. Which version of the Seawolves do we get out of the gate on Saturday? Rhode Island won last year's matchup 31-17, but it was an interesting stylistic battle. The Rams threw all over Stony Brook's defense, while Stony Brook found a ton of success on the ground.

Running backs CJ Hester and Jeremiah Coney have been excellent for the Seawolves this season. The duo has averaged 6.5 and 5.2 yards per carry against solid competition. Will they be able to find the same amount of success that Roland Dempster found against the Rams?

Can Stony Brook establish the run early and build a lead against the best defense in the CAA? The Rams are led by Case Mankins, Rohan Davy, and Moses Meus. If the Seawolves can grab an early lead, it could force Tyler Budge to start to press, which is something that Elon's defense was able to do for most of last week's game.

For Rhode Island, Aboraa Kwarteng has a massive game against the Seawolves with 114 yards in 2025. It would be huge for this offense if he is able to replicate that production again. The Rams need to limit negative plays, especially against a Stony Brook defense that leads the country in TFLs per game (10.7).

Dartmouth at No. 7 Lehigh

Can Dartmouth slow down Luke Yoder and Lehigh's rushing attack?

Welcome to the 2026 college football season, Dartmouth! You get to open the season with Luke Yoder, who has been arguably the most effective offensive weapon in the entire country. He's averaging more than 150 yards and 3 rushing TDs per game.

Last season, Dartmouth did have an elite rushing defense, allowing only 3.38 yards per carry, which ranked 12th nationally. The problem is that Dartmouth lost a ton of talent to the transfer portal. Will this revamped unit be able to stand up against this elite Lehigh offensive attack?

Wofford at Chattanooga

Can either team find a way to get to 20 points in this game?

Outside of Week 0, in which Wofford and Chattanooga capitalized on short fields, Wofford is averaging 15 PPG, and the Mocs are averaging 13 PPG. Both teams are also averaging under 270 yards per game, plus they both rank among the bottom 30 nationally among FCS teams in yards per play.

However, both defenses rank Top 40 nationally in yards per play allowed. The Mocs actually rank 15th nationally, while Wofford's total number is a bit skewed due to an FBS game. Regardless, I would expect this to be another low-scoring game. Whichever quarterback is the most efficient and avoids turnovers will have an excellent chance to win this game.

No. 12 Stephen F. Austin at Prairie View A&M

Can Prairie View A&M slow down SFA's front seven?

The entire game comes down to this for me. Can Prairie View A&M block Stephen F. Austin's defensive line? The Lumberjacks have been one of the most disruptive forces in the country, which is a trend that has continued since last year. SFA is averaging 8 TFLs per game, including 10 TFLs and 3 sacks against a talented, experienced Abilene Christian offensive line last weekend.

Gavin Rutherford and Stephen F. Austin's offense has struggled with consistency, but there are enough weapons to go score 28+ points in this matchup. The question will be whether Prairie View A&M can hold the ball long enough and turn scoring opportunities into touchdowns rather than field goals.

Monmouth at UAlbany

Can UAlbany QB Kai Colon continue to improve?

After Monmouth struggled offensively against Tennessee Tech in Week 0, the offense has started to find its groove behind Frankie Weaver and some talented weapons on the outside. In fact, Gavin Nelson and Tra Neal each have had at least 7 receptions in each of the last two games, including a game against one of the best Group of Six teams in the country. Monmouth's rushing attack has started to become very explosive behind Elijah Jennings.

UAlbany's biggest strength has been a suffocating defense this season, allowing only 13.5 PPG against FCS opponents. The Great Danes also allowed only 21 points against Buffalo. However, Monmouth is a much bigger threat than New Hampshire or Long Island.

Kai Colon is only completing 51% of his passes, but he took a big step forward with his efficiency last weekend. UAlbany needs his improvement to continue, especially since they will likely need to score 28+ points against a talented Monmouth defensive front, which ranks among the FCS leaders in pressures created.

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