Behind The Numbers: Week 5 FCS Football Preview

Week 5 of the 2026 college football season is finally here. We have another edition of our "Behind the Numbers" series here at FCS Football Central.

Our goal is to highlight teams every week and bring you what I think will be the most important statistic to monitor for that specific game. This isn't a comprehensive preview of the game; we will have that in another article each week, but it will allow me to give you important tidbits on a wide variety of games throughout the season.

Let's take a deep dive behind the numbers of the biggest Week 5 games across the FCS.

No. 2 South Dakota State at No. 10 Illinois State

Who can force the opposing quarterback into adverse situations?

My biggest concern in this game is Illinois State's ability, or inability, to score on this South Dakota State defense. The Jackrabbits rank 8th nationally in yards per play allowed and have the 8th-best defensive success rate in the FCS. They aren't allowing explosive plays, but they are also not allowing much success down-to-down either.

Even in a matchup against the most efficient offense in the country, the Jackrabbits flustered Youngstown State and kept them out of their comfort zone. That's an issue for an Illinois State offense that was unable to generate explosive plays against UNI. They were 105th in the country in explosiveness last weekend. It's clear that the Redbirds are feeling the absence of Daniel Sobkowicz on the outside.

With that said, the best chance that Illinois State has in this game is to make it an ugly, low-scoring game. Quarterback Josh Holst has not been effective since replacing Chase Mason, especially in the short passing game. However, South Dakota State has the 3rd-best rushing success rate in the country. This rushing attack is averaging 6.8 yards per carry, which is a whole yard more than any other team in the MVFC.

Illinois State has the best run defense in the MVFC, allowing 2.8 yards per carry, but they allowed nearly 6 yards per carry against UNI last weekend. Was that performance an outlier or a major issue moving forward? The Redbirds can swing this game in their favor if they can put Josh Holst in 3rd-and-long situations. It's the biggest factor in this game on Saturday night.

No. 8 Youngstown State at No. 21 Southern Illinois

Has Southern Illinois really broken out of its offensive funk?

The Salukis had one of the best offenses in FCS football last season. Despite several key returners, this offense has taken a big step back from what it was a year ago. This is the 2nd-worst offense in the MVFC, only averaging 5.3 yards per play. They also rank 74th nationally in offensive success rate.

Southern Illinois had its best offensive performance of the year against Murray State, but it'll be a much bigger test this weekend. Quarterback DJ Williams finally looks like he's coming into form after battling an injury early in the season.

While the Salukis have improved defensively, ranking 3rd in the MVFC in yards per play allowed, they have to try to stop the most efficient offense in the country. Southern Illinois is going to have to get this offense going because they are going to have to outscore the Penguins this weekend.

No. 22 Colgate at No. 20 Harvard

Will Colgate quarterback Jake Stearney avoid turnovers?

This game has the lowest over-under point total of any game in college football over the past two seasons at 36.5. We all know what this game is going to be... An absolute slugfest. Harvard enters the game with the 11th-most efficient defense in the country. They've been elite at creating turnovers, forcing seven turnovers in only two games.

Even with some of the inconsistency we've seen from Harvard's offense, if Colgate quarterback Jake Stearney turns the ball over, they could easily take advantage of short fields. Stearney has thrown 8 passing TDs and 6 INTs this season. Colgate's defense has also been dominant this year, recording 10 sacks over the past two games. Don't expect any offensive fireworks in this matchup.

No. 19 Northern Arizona at No. 12 Idaho State

Can Northern Arizona get enough stops in this game?

Northern Arizona showed more life last week offensively, especially when using Ty Pennington in the run game. The Lumberjacks should be able to move the ball against this Idaho State defense. The problem is on the other side of the ball. NAU ranks 123rd in the country in defensive efficiency and 125th in rushing success rate allowed.

This is a bad formula against an Idaho State offense that leads the Big Sky in yards per play (7.2) and ranks Top 20 nationally in rushing success rate. How does NAU get enough stops to stay in this game? The Lumberjacks are going to have to find a way to force turnovers. Luckily, they lead the Big Sky in interceptions (7) and fumbles forced (7).

Incarnate Word at No. 7 Stephen F. Austin

Can Incarnate Word block the Stephen F. Austin defensive front?

It's going to be the same question every week for Stephen F. Austin's opponent. Can you block this elite front seven? The Lumberjacks have a stuff rate of 25.8% and rank 3rd nationally in TFLs per game (9). Incarnate Word is allowing over 5.2 TFLs per game, which ranks 57th in the FCS. Excessive negative plays could also lead to turnovers, which have been an issue for the Cardinals. Quarterback Emmett Brown has 6 turnovers in UIW's first four games.

Alabama A&M at No. 25 Jackson State

Can Alabama A&M slow Jackson State's run game down?

This game features the only two teams in the entire country that are Top 10 in both offensive and defensive yards per play. Jackson State boasts an elite rushing attack, averaging over 5 yards per carry and 200 yards per game. On the other side, Alabama A&M has the 6th-best rushing defense in the FCS, holding opponents to only 2.72 yards per carry.

I think both quarterbacks will have their moments to make some key plays. The outcome of this game will be decided in the trenches and by whether the Bulldogs are able to limit Jackson State's rushing attack.

Chattanooga at ETSU

Which of these contrasting styles wins head-to-head?

In what could be a battle for a top finish in the SoCon, ETSU and Chattanooga could not be more different in their approach to winning football games. The Bucs have the 15th-best scoring offense at over 36 PPG and want to play very fast, while Chattanooga is 70th at 23.6 PPG and plays at a much slower tempo.

The Mocs also have the 9th-best scoring defense, allowing only 14.2 PPG. Nobody has been able to stop this Chattanooga rushing game, which also ranks 16th nationally at over 200 yards per game. ETSU will have to find a way to limit the Mocs on the ground, which will speed this game up and create more possessions as this ETSU offense tries to find its rhythm.

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