Behind The Numbers: Success Rates For Every FCS Football Team After Week 7

Let's throw out the records for the moment. How well is your favorite team really playing after Week 7?

As we hit the midway point of the season, and conference play is heating up, which teams are going to be able to win key games down the stretch? Records can be deceiving due to multiple external factors, so we compiled data that shows the success rate for each team over the entire season.

The Average Success Rate for a college football program is about 40%, while closer to 50% is considered excellent, and anything under 30% is deemed poor. For defensive success rate, lower numbers indicate better performance.

It is important to note that these numbers do not account for the strength of schedule, which is why we are comparing teams within each conference; therefore, the numbers should be interpreted accordingly.

The following tables highlight the offensive and defensive success rates for each team in the FCS, organized by conference. Teams are listed in order by Net Success Rate, with the conference rank shown in parentheses.

Big Sky

Team	Offensive Success Rate	Defensive Success Rate
Montana State	49.8% (1st)	36.8% (2nd)
Montana	46.4% (2nd)	33.9% (1st)
UC Davis	44.8% (T-4th)	43.6% (6th)
Sacramento State	42.1% (6th)	41.3% (4th)
Idaho	44.8% (T-4th)	44.1% (7th)
Northern Colorado	40.8% (8th)	40.5% (3rd)
Idaho State	45.9% (3rd)	46.7% (11th)
Northern Arizona	41.7% (7th)	42.7% (5th)
Weber State	37.4% (9th)	44.6% (8th)
Cal Poly	36% (10th)	44.9% (9th)
Eastern Washington	35.8% (11th)	45% (10th)
Portland State	33.2% (12th)	49.3% (12th)

CAA

Team	Offensive Success Rate	Defensive Success Rate
Monmouth	55.8% (1st)	49.3% (14th)
Stony Brook	39.8% (7th)	33.9% (1st)
Elon	43.2% (4th)	37.4% (2nd)
Villanova	50.3% (2nd)	45.6% (9th)
Rhode Island	43.7% (3rd)	41.7% (5th)
Maine	40.2% (6th)	40.5% (3rd)
Bryant	38.5% (11th)	42.5% (6th)
New Hampshire	39.3% (9th)	43.8% (7th)
William & Mary	39.6% (8th)	45.4% (8th)
Towson	40.9% (5th)	47.6% (13th)
Hampton	39.2% (10th)	46.5% (12th)
North Carolina A&T	33.3% (13th)	41.5% (4th)
Campbell	36.3% (12th)	46.4% (T-11th)
UAlbany	32.4% (14th)	46.4% (T-11th)

Note: In one of the weirdest stats of the season, Monmouth leads the CAA in offensive success rate (55.8%), but ranks last in defensive success rate (49.3%). The Hawks are still finding ways to win, sitting at 5-0 against the FCS, but have allowed 28 or more points in every game this year.

Ivy League

Team	Offensive Success Rate	Defensive Success Rate
Harvard	54.1% (1st)	26.4% (1st)
Penn	44.1% (4th)	38.7% (2nd)
Dartmouth	48.9% (2nd)	44.9% (7th)
Brown	45.5% (3rd)	44.3% (6th)
Cornell	41.2% (5th)	40.3% (3rd)
Yale	39.1% (7th)	43.9% (5th)
Columbia	35.3% (8th)	40.6% (4th)
Princeton	39.6% (6th)	49% (8th)

Note: Harvard leads the country in defensive success rate (26.4%), which has played a significant role in the Crimson starting the season 4-0 (2-0 Ivy). The Crimson have held three of their four opponents to 10 points or fewer, while scoring 34 points or more in every game.

MEAC

Team	Offensive Success Rate	Defensive Success Rate
South Carolina State	43.8% (3rd)	34.6% (1st)
North Carolina Central	44.9% (2nd)	36% (2nd)
Delaware State	45.2% (1st)	44.7% (6th)
Howard	41.5% (4th)	41.4% (4th)
Morgan State	37.7% (6th)	40.6% (3rd)
Norfolk State	40.8% (5th)	44.4% (5th)

Note: Delaware State has exceeded expectations in DeSean Jackson's first season as head coach, going 4-3 in non-conference play. The Hornets' offense has been explosive, leading to the No. 1 success rate in the conference, but it's been the defense that has cost this team in some close games.

MVFC

Team	Offensive Success Rate	Defensive Success Rate
North Dakota State	57.4% (1st)	31.2% (1st)
South Dakota State	46.4% (3rd)	36.4% (2nd)
North Dakota	45% (6th)	36.5% (3rd)
Youngstown State	46% (5th)	39.1% (4th)
Southern Illinois	52.7% (2nd)	47% (9th)
South Dakota	44.9% (7th)	43.7% (5th)
Illinois State	45.8% (5th)	45.3% (7th)
Indiana State	37.6% (10th)	44.1% (6th)
Northern Iowa	38.5% (9th)	46.1% (8th)
Murray State	38.7% (8th)	58.4% (10th)

Note: North Dakota State leads the country in offensive success rate (57.4%), while also ranking Top 5 nationally in defensive success rate (31.2%). This should come as no surprise, as the Bison have outscored their first six opponents 267-63, including three Top 25 wins.

NEC

Team	Offensive Success Rate	Defensive Success Rate
Duquesne	39.5% (3rd)	35.8% (1st)
CCSU	41.7% (2nd)	39.8% (3rd)
Mercyhurst	42.8% (1st)	43.3% (7th)
New Haven	39.4% (4th)	38.8% (2nd)
Stonehill	35.4% (5th)	41% (5th)
Long Island	34.8% (6th)	41.9% (6th)
Saint Francis	32.3% (9th)	40.7% (4th)
Robert Morris	32.8% (T-7th)	47.9% (8th)
Wagner	32.8% (T-7th)	50.9% (9th)

Patriot League

Team	Offensive Success Rate	Defensive Success Rate
Lehigh	50.1% (1st)	34.4% (1st)
Lafayette	46.3% (2nd)	40.2% (2nd)
Georgetown	38.1% (6th)	41.1% (3rd)
Richmond	38.3% (5th)	41.9% (4th)
Colgate	45% (3rd)	49.3% (7th)
Holy Cross	34.4% (8th)	42% (5th)
Bucknell	40.6% (4th)	49.1% (6th)
Fordham	36.2% (7th)	50.1% (8th)

Note: Lehigh entered the season as the favorite to repeat as conference champions, and nothing has changed after Week 7. The Hawks have won all but one game by 14 points or more, including two key non-conference wins over Yale and Penn.

Pioneer League

Team	Offensive Success Rate	Defensive Success Rate
Presbyterian	54.8% (1st)	35.5% (1st)
Dayton	44.1% (2nd)	40.2% (4th)
Drake	40.2% (5th)	39.4% (3rd)
St. Thomas	43.6% (3rd)	43.2% (9th)
Butler	41.9% (4th)	42.7% (7th)
Marist	32.6% (10th)	37.1% (2nd)
Stetson	36.7% (7th)	43.1% (8th)
San Diego	32.8% (9th)	41.2% (5th)
Valparaiso	32.3% (11th)	41.6% (6th)
Davidson	37.7% (6th)	51.5% (10th)
Morehead State	35.2% (8th)	58.1% (11th)

OVC-Big South

Team	Offensive Success Rate	Defensive Success Rate
Tennessee Tech	53% (1st)	26.9% (1st)
SEMO	39.8% (3rd)	42.3% (2nd)
Eastern Illinois	39.6% (4th)	42.7% (4th)
UT Martin	40.3% (2nd)	43.7% (5th)
Lindenwood	38% (6th)	42.4% (3rd)
Gardner-Webb	38.2% (5th)	44.8% (6th)
Tennessee State	34.2% (8th)	46.5% (7th)
Western Illinois	35.8% (7th)	48.4% (8th)
Charleston Southern	30.2% (9th)	48.9% (9th)

Note: Tennessee Tech appears to be in full control of this conference race, which is further demonstrated by its dominant success rate numbers. The Golden Eagles have an offensive success rate 13% higher than any other team in the conference, while also boasting the No. 2 defensive success rate nationally, 15% higher than any other OVC-Big South team.

SoCon

Team	Offensive Success Rate	Defensive Success Rate
Mercer	47.5% (1st)	30.8% (1st)
Western Carolina	44.3% (2nd)	36.1% (2nd)
ETSU	40.7% (4th)	41.3% (T-3rd)
Furman	42.2% (3rd)	45.4% (9th)
Chattanooga	37.6% (5th)	41.9% (5th)
The Citadel	34% (6th)	41.3% (T-3rd)
Samford	33.8% (7th)	43.3% (7th)
Wofford	29.6% (9th)	42.6% (6th)
VMI	30.9% (8th)	44.3% (8th)

Note: A lot of hype has surrounded Western Carolina's offense with Taron Dickens, but it's actually Mercer with the No. 1 success rate in the SoCon. This has a lot to do with the emergence of Braden Atkinson at quarterback, who is one of the way-too-early favorites for the Jerry Rice Award.

Southland

Team	Offensive Success Rate	Defensive Success Rate
Southeastern Louisiana	48.4% (1st)	39.2% (4th)
SFA	39.8% (5th)	32.9% (1st)
UTRGV	40.8% (4th)	39% (3rd)
Incarnate Word	42.3% (2nd)	40.6% (5th)
McNeese	39.2% (6th)	37.7% (2nd)
East Texas A&M	42.2% (3rd)	41.9% (9th)
Lamar	35.4% (7th)	41.1% (7th)
Nicholls	32.8% (8th)	41.5% (8th)
Houston Christian	31.8% (9th)	40.8% (6th)
Northwestern State	30.8% (10th)	54% (10th)

SWAC

Team	Offensive Success Rate	Defensive Success Rate
Jackson State	48.7% (2nd)	40.2% (1st)
Alabama State	54% (1st)	49.3% (8th)
Alabama A&M	46.7% (3rd)	42.7% (5th)
Alcorn State	41.5% (6th)	40.8% (3rd)
Texas Southern	39.2% (7th)	40.6% (2nd)
Grambling State	41.9% (5th)	43.7% (6th)
Prairie View A&M	37.9% (9th)	42.1% (4th)
Southern	38.4% (8th)	46.5% (7th)
Bethune-Cookman	42.1% (4th)	54.9% (11th)
Florida A&M	31.8% (11th)	50.1% (9th)
UAPB	32.7% (10th)	51.8% (10th)
Mississippi Valley State	31% (12th)	55.7% (12th)

UAC

Team	Offensive Success Rate	Defensive Success Rate
Tarleton State	49.1% (1st)	38.8% (2nd)
West Georgia	38.7% (7th)	34.4% (1st)
Austin Peay	45.5% (3rd)	41.4% (5th)
Southern Utah	46.9% (2nd)	43.4% (8th)
Central Arkansas	44.4% (5th)	41.9% (7th)
Abilene Christian	44.6% (4th)	44.8% (9th)
North Alabama	40.1% (6th)	41.8% (6th)
Utah Tech	35.7% (8th)	39.5% (3rd)
Eastern Kentucky	30.3% (9th)	40.7% (4th)

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