Behind The Numbers: FCS Playoffs Second-Round Preview
Last week we took an in-depth statistical look at each playoff team and used those statistics to look at the strengths and weaknesses of each team. Last week we predicted that North Dakota and Sacramento State would be an offensive shootout. We also predicted Lafayette would give Delaware problems and the Leopards led 28-10 before losing their starting quarterback to an injury.
Below we go behind the numbers for each second-round matchup of the FCS Playoffs.
NOTE: Overall statistical rankings come from FCS Football Central’s average of several important factors. Rankings can be found in the Behind The Numbers article below.
Richmond vs UAlbany
UAlbany enters this game with a massive advantage as the Great Danes have the 18th-ranked offense and 3rd-ranked defense (Out of 24 Playoff Teams). Richmond ranks No. 23 offensively and No. 15 defensively among playoff teams, but the Spiders have one of the best rushing defenses in the field and rank No. 1 for tackles for loss. This was a key factor in Richmond's first-round win against North Carolina Central. Richmond held the Eagles to 2.2 yards per carry and finished the game with seven tackles for loss, led by defensive end Marlem Louis. North Carolina Central was unable to expose Richmond’s defensive weakness, which is the secondary that is prone to allowing explosive plays. UAlbany’s offense is led by the passing game as quarterback Reese Poffenbarger and his receivers have progressed throughout the season. The Great Danes may struggle to run the ball on Richmond and this game could be decided by Poffenbarger's ability to hit receivers down the field.
Richmond cannot expect to have the same success running the ball this weekend compared to last weekend's matchup. UAlbany has the No. 1 rushing defense in the nation (2.61 YPC). The Spiders have struggled against strong defensive fronts and now have to face the two-headed monster of Anton Juncaj (13 sacks, 43 QB pressures) and A.J. Simon (10.5 sacks, 45 QB pressures). Turnovers could also be a massive factor as Richmond has turned the ball over 20 times this year, while UAlbany has forced 24 turnovers. The Great Danes have difference-makers at all three levels of the defense. Anton Juncaj, AJ Simon, linebacker Dylan Kelly, linebacker Ori Jean-Charles, cornerback Aamir Hall, and safety Larry Walker Jr. are all among the best players at their positions. If Richmond has any chance of keeping this game close, the Spiders will need to limit UAlbany’s explosive passing attack, protect the football, and Richmond quarterback Kyle Wickersham will need to be precise through the air while also making big plays with his legs to extend drives.
Youngstown State vs Villanova
Youngstown State cruised to a win over Duquesne in the first round with a 40-7 win over the Dukes. Villanova comes in as the 4th-ranked offense in the field and the 5th-ranked defense. The Wildcats are the only team outside of Brookings with a top-five offense and defense in the field. Villanova specializes in running the ball with a stable of talented running backs. The Wildcats ranked 4th in rushing offense at 5.61 yards per carry and creating explosive plays off play-action makes this offensive attack dangerous. The Wildcats average almost 10.0 yards per pass attempt (No. 1) and create explosive plays on 16% of every play (No. 1). On paper, this looks like a potential mismatch because Youngstown State’s pass defense is the clear weakness of this team as the Penguins give up over eight yards per pass attempt and allow explosive plays on 12% of plays (No. 23). Youngstown State is much more successful against the run (No. 14) and it will be imperative that this defense finds a way to stop Villanova’s rushing attack with limited numbers in the box.
Villanova's defense has done an excellent job at limiting explosive plays (No. 4) and keeping offenses off schedule by forcing negative plays (No. 1 in Defensive Success Rate). Youngstown State is very balanced offensively as the Penguins rank above average in almost every offensive category. This offense has a dynamic duo of running backs (Tyshon King and Dra Rushton), a potential game-breaking receiver (Bryce Oliver), and an experienced quarterback (Mitch Davidson). While Villanova’s defensive numbers are great, this is the best and most balanced FCS offense the Wildcats have faced all season.
The only game this season Villanova struggled was against UAlbany. The Wildcats still moved the ball well but had five turnovers that allowed the Great Danes to pull away. This game will be one of the higher-scoring games of the weekend and could be decided on whether Youngstown State can consistently contain Villanova’s rushing attack and prevent the Wildcats from taking advantage of the secondary.
Chattanooga vs Furman
Furman and Chattanooga will meet this weekend in the only rematch of a regular season matchup of the second round. Furman won the first matchup against Chattanooga, 17-14, despite Furman quarterback Tyler Huff missing most of the game with an injury. Roles will be reversed this weekend as Huff will return from injury while Chattanooga quarterback Chase Artopoeus is not expected to play. In the first matchup, both teams struggled to move the ball. Both teams averaged under 2.5 yards per carry, but Chattanooga created explosive plays through the air while Furman relied on special teams and turnovers to create scoring opportunities.
Furman has been an interesting team to track statistically throughout the season. The offense ranks No. 19 of 24 playoff teams. The Paladins have struggled offensively against weaker competition and their stronger offensive performances came against the better teams on the schedule. The Paladins will need to rely on special plays from quarterback Tyler Huff to extend drives and convert on red zone opportunities. Another important factor when Furman has the ball is the health of Chattanooga All-American defensive end Jay Person. He left the game against Austin Peay with a forearm injury and is expected to miss this weekend's game.
Chattanooga's offense is led by its talented wide receiver room (Javin Whatley, Jamoi Mayes, and Sam Phillips) to create explosive plays in the passing game. The Mocs scored on a 67-yard pass to Whatley and a 70-yard pass to Mayes in the first game against Furman. While Furman has been inconsistent, one thing that has been consistent is the defensive line. The Paladins have one of the best front sevens in the nation and the No. 3-ranked run defense in the playoffs allowing only 2.8 yards per carry. The biggest question is whether backup Luke Schomburg can create the same type of explosive plays in the passing game that Artopoeus did in the first game. Schomburg did complete three passes over 20 yards last weekend against Austin Peay and if he can build on this, he will keep the Mocs in this game. Overall Furman will feel good about moving on to the quarterfinals if Tyler Huff is healthy, and the defense continues to be stout.
Sacramento State vs South Dakota
Sacramento State advanced to the second round after a 42-35 victory at North Dakota behind Kaden Bennett's elite performance. Bennett threw for 207 yards and used his legs to keep plays alive while rushing for 134 yards. The Hornets entered the playoffs with the No. 8 offense in the field and when Bennett has played the Hornets have been elite. The South Dakota defense comes in ranked No. 12 and relies on a bend-but-don’t-break strategy. South Dakota's defense allows teams to move the chains (No. 21 in Defensive Success Rate) but does not allow explosive plays (No. 7) and limits touchdowns in the red zone (No. 8). Sacramento State has struggled to run the ball all year and will need another massive performance from Kaiden Bennett and a group of explosive receivers.
South Dakota has the No. 6-ranked offense, which could be a huge advantage against a Sacramento State defense that ranks No. 23 out of the playoff teams in the field. South Dakota's offense is the master of efficient, slow-tempo offense that limits the possessions of its opponents. Look for the Coyotes to take a measured approach and create opportunities for wide receiver Carter Bell to make plays down the field.
The winner of this game will be the team that can establish the tempo. If Sacramento State can play fast, turn red zone trips into touchdowns, and create a couple of turnovers the Hornets have a great shot to pull off the upset. If South Dakota can hold the Hornets to field goals and keep this a low-possession game, the Coyotes will have the advantage. If the Hornets are going to travel and get another win it will be because Bennett is able to break South Dakota’s disciplined defense down with his legs. Either way, expect this to be one of the most competitive games this weekend.
Mercer vs South Dakota State
Mercer defeated Gardner-Webb in the first round in a defensive battle. The Bears were rewarded with a trip to the prohibitive favorite South Dakota State in Brookings. The Jackrabbits have easily been the most dominant team in the country and have the No. 1 offense and No. 2 defense entering the postseason. Mercer will have to slow down South Dakota State's offense to have any chance to pull off the upset. Mercer's offense ranks No. 22 of all the playoff teams and the offense has struggled all year despite one of the best wide receiver cores in the country (Ty James & Devron Harper). South Dakota State ranks in the top three for all eight advanced statistics that we have tracked this season. Mercer has a talented defensive front, led by defensive end Solomon Zubairu, and the Mercer defense will need to hold one of the most efficient red zone offenses in the country (84% TD Rate) to field goals. Safety Lance Wise has five interceptions this season and the Bears will need to find a way to force South Dakota State into mistakes this weekend.
On offense, Mercer will need to slow the tempo down to keep this a low-possession game. The Bears will want to isolate Ty James on the outside and hope the All-American can win one-on-one matchups against South Dakota State's talented secondary. The Bears have the defensive talent to keep it close, but they will need quarterback Carter Peevy to have the best game of his career to pull off the historic upset.
North Dakota State vs Montana State
North Dakota State dominated Drake in a 66-3 blowout last weekend to set up the most anticipated second-round game of the weekend. The Bobcats have the No. 1 rushing offense in the nation and average 7.3 yards per carry. Quarterbacks Tommy Mellott and Sean Chambers are dynamic weapons in the run game while running back Julius Davis loves contact and can make plays after contact. The Bobcats have the athletes to generate explosive plays, but Montana State has struggled when the opponents have put the Bobcats behind the chains. Mellot and Chambers may be dynamic athletes but struggle to throw the ball consistently. North Dakota State has the No. 15 rushing defense and allows almost four yards per carry. The Bison have allowed teams to move the ball down the field, but are successful in forcing key turnovers.
North Dakota State has the third-ranked offense this season and the Bison will face a Montana State defense that ranks No. 6. The Bison are successful at running the ball and use a pair of dynamic quarterbacks (Miller and Payton) to create explosive plays. The Bison have been more successful through the air than Montana State as Cam Miller is averaging over nine yards per attempt and has made some big throws this season. Miller is the highest-rated quarterback in the FCS according to PFF this season. The strongest part of the Bobcat defense has been the ability to limit explosive plays. The strength of this defense is on the defensive line, led by Brody Grebe and Sebastian Valdez. The Bobcats rank No. 6 in pressure rate and No. 7 in tackle-for-loss rate. The key when the Bison have the ball is North Dakota State's ability to establish the run to open up downfield shots.
Expect this to be a high-scoring game that will hinge on turnovers and special teams execution. Home-field advantage may be the biggest factor in this game and the Bobcats will hope it swings the game in their favor.
Delaware vs Montana
Delaware escaped with a 36-34 win against Lafayette in the first round of the FCS Playoffs. The first concern for Delaware will be the quarterback position as Ryan O’Connor and Zach Marker both suffered injuries against Villanova. Quarterback Nick Minicucci finished with three interceptions and was inconsistent against Lafayette. Montana’s defense thrives by creating turnovers, which means that turnovers will doom the Blue Hens this weekend. Delaware’s offensive line struggled and allowed 22 pressures, which could be an issue against Montana's defense that ranks 5th in pressure rate. Delaware needs to establish its rushing offense (4.68 YPC) to take pressure off the quarterback this weekend. The Blue Hens will face a Montana rushing defense that only allows 3.26 yards per carry (No. 5) and the health of running back Marcus Yarns will be a key storyline to watch this weekend.
As Clifton McDowell has continued to grow in confidence this season the offense has continued to improve each week. The Grizzlies excel at getting running back Eli Gillman and receiver Junior Bergen in open space, which leads to a high rate of explosive plays. Delaware’s weakness is the rushing defense (No. 21) and Montana will be confident in exploiting that with McDowell and Gillman. Montana will also have a huge home-field advantage and Delaware will need to play an almost perfect game to pull off the upset.
Southern Illinois vs Idaho
Southern Illinois defeated Nicholls, 35-0, in the first round with another dominant defensive performance. While the defense was excellent, the offense played average once again. The Salukis only averaged 5.7 yards per play, which supports the No. 1-ranked defense and No. 21-ranked offense (Out of 24 Teams). The Salukis have struggled to run the ball, only averaging 3.51 yards per carry (No. 23). The Salukis rely on the passing attack to move the ball down the field (7.58 YPA). Idaho’s No. 9-ranked defense matches up well with Southern Illinois. The Vandals have the No. 1 ranked passing defense in the nation (5.9 YPA). The defensive weakness is the rushing defense (No. 16) and the Salukis do not have the rushing attack to expose the weakness.
The game will be decided by Idaho's ability to move the ball against a stout Southern Illinois defense. Idaho's offensive line will be a key factor as the Vandals are the worst team in the playoffs at allowing pressure. Southern Illinois allows 2.79 YPC and generates pressure on almost 50% of dropbacks. The Vandals could take advantage of the Southern Illinois secondary with one of the best wide receiver cores in the country, led by Hayden Hatten and Jermaine Jackson.
The Salukis need to keep this a low-scoring game and force the Idaho offense into mistakes. The two games Idaho lost came against defenses that play similar styles to Southern Illinois (Montana & Weber State). Southern Illinois plays an aggressive 3-3-5 defense and if the Salukis can overwhelm Idaho’s offensive line, this team has a great chance to pull off the upset. I suspect that Southern Illinois does not have enough offensive talent to score with Idaho and I expect the Vandals to pull out a close victory late.
