FCS Football Playoff Picture: Nov. 15 (Week 12)
With less than one week to go before the playoff field is decided, we will go conference by conference and look at which teams should be considered locks, contenders, or still have work to do. 24 teams will make the 2023 FCS playoffs with 10 automatic bids (conference winners) and 14 At-large bids.
Teams that are “Locks” are teams that have clinched an auto bid or have a strong enough resume to earn an at-large bid. “Should Be In” teams are on track to be in the playoffs but must avoid any slip-ups and “Work to Do” teams still need stronger resumes to secure a shot in the postseason. 37 teams are mentioned in this week's playoff picture, but only 24 will make the field on Sunday.
Below is a breakdown of the playoff picture conference by conference.
Big Sky
Locks: Montana State, Idaho, Montana
As we head into the final week of the FCS regular season, Montana and Montana State will play the 121st Brawl of the Wild with the Big Sky championship on the line. The winner will also be a definitive favorite for a top-three seed. The Grizzlies can expect to have the No. 2 or No. 3 seed with a home victory. Whatever the outcome, the game in Missoula on Saturday will be an excellent playoff preview. Idaho suffered a disappointing 31-29 loss against Weber State, which eliminated the Vandal’s chance to earn a top-four seed. Idaho still has three ranked wins, a great strength of schedule, and an FBS win. The resume is still strong enough to earn a lower seed, but the Vandals should be concerned after some lackluster performances. After their huge win against Montana State, the Vandals have not played well against Northern Colorado or Weber State. This team needs to get it going again at home against Idaho State to build some positive momentum before the FCS Playoffs.
Should be in: None
Work to Do: Sacramento State, UC Davis
Sacramento State has not looked like the same team after the nightmare in Missoula. The defense has regressed throughout the season and the Hornets now face a must-win game to secure a spot in the postseason. UC Davis has started to improve with the return of running back Lan Larison and the Aggies still have one of the nation’s best defenses. If the Aggies can win against Sacramento State this weekend, UC Davis will have a 7-4 record and a ranked win that will be enough for a potential at-large bid. Sacramento State will secure their spot with a win and an 8-3 record, but if the Hornets lose, this team would fall to 7-4 with a No. 21 strength of schedule, and an FBS win over Stanford. The Hornets would still have an argument despite losing three of their last five games.
Big South – OVC
Locks: None
Should be in: None
Work to do: Gardner-Webb, UT Martin, Eastern Illinois
UT Martin won a share of the Big South-OVC last weekend with a 41-14 win over SEMO, but Gardner-Webb controls its own destiny for the auto-bid going into the final game of the regular season. The Runnin' Bulldogs hold the head-to-head advantage over the Skyhawks and can secure the auto-bid with a win against Charleston Southern this weekend. If Gardner-Webb suffers a loss this weekend, then the Runnin' Bulldogs will not receive consideration for an at-large bid.
The more interesting conversation revolves around the at-large chances of UT Martin. The Skyhawks need to beat Samford this weekend, which will put UT Martin at 9-2 with a 9-1 record against the FCS. In this scenario, the only loss UT Martin would have is against a playoff team in Gardner-Webb. UT Martin's strength of schedule ranks No. 59, which is strong enough to earn significant consideration for an at-large bid. The only potential knock against UT Martin would be a lack of quality wins. The best win is an overtime win against Eastern Illinois, but nine wins against Division I teams should be enough for UT Martin to earn a spot in the field.
Speaking of Eastern Illinois, the Panthers have a great shot to finish the season 8-3 with a win against Robert Morris. Eastern Illinois may have a better at-large resume than people realize. The Panthers do not have any bad losses and have a win over then-ranked Illinois State from earlier in the year. The No. 71 strength of schedule may keep Eastern Illinois out of the field but if some chaos were to ensue this weekend, the Panthers may find a way into the bracket.
CAA
Locks: UAlbany, Villanova, Delaware
Three teams have clearly separated themselves from the rest of the field in the CAA and have earned "Lock" status going into the final week of the regular season. UAlbany, Villanova, and Delaware all have a chance to win the CAA auto-bid and all have strong enough resumes to earn an at-large bid. All three already have eight wins and only one loss against the FCS. UAlbany should win this Saturday against Monmouth and the Great Danes will have a great argument to earn a seed in the postseason. The winner of a huge Villanova-Delaware game will also have a strong opportunity to earn one of the last two seeds in the bracket.
Should be in: None
Work to do: Richmond, Rhode Island, William & Mary
Richmond eliminated Elon with a 38-24 win last weekend. Richmond has a 7-3 record but still needs help going into the final weekend. Losses to Hampton and Morgan State, along with no elite wins, mean that Richmond’s best playoff chance is to get the CAA auto-bid. In order to earn the auto-bid, Richmond would need UAlbany to lose, Delaware to win, and the Spiders need to beat William & Mary this weekend. Richmond's resume does not look better than many teams on the bubble, which is why the Spiders might be a long shot to make the postseason. Rhode Island and William & Mary are still hanging around the playoff picture because both have an opportunity to finish the season with seven wins. The problem for both the Rams and the Tribe is that both teams have lost to all the quality teams on their schedule. At 7-4, neither team has a signature win or anything that separates their resume from other bubble teams. The chance to earn a spot in the postseason is slim for both Rhode Island and William and Mary.
MVFC
Locks: South Dakota State, South Dakota
South Dakota State continued to show their dominance with a 34-0 win over Youngstown State and the Jackrabbits are certain to earn the No. 1 overall seed for the playoffs. The Jackrabbits have five ranked wins and were dominant in most of those wins. South Dakota joined the Jackrabbits as the second MVFC to earn “Lock” status and continued to boost their resume and chances of getting a top-four seed with a 14-10 win over North Dakota.
Should be in: North Dakota State
North Dakota State could be in the “Lock” category and the Bison may get in even with a loss this weekend at Northern Iowa. The Bison defeated Southern Illinois last weekend and improved to 7-3 on the season. This Bison team is still impressive offensively and will always be formidable inside the Fargodome. A win over the Panthers could possibly give North Dakota State a shot to earn the No. 8 seed. A loss this weekend would drop the Bison to 7-4 and a closer look at the resume would show that the Bison have struggled against quality teams throughout the season. North Dakota State would still find a way into the field but need a win this weekend to feel safe.
Work to do: Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa, Youngstown State, North Dakota, Illinois State
The bubble in the MVFC has become a complete mess as these five teams ended last weekend with a 1-4 record. Illinois State may be the longest shot to make the field as the Redbirds can get to seven wins this weekend, but their strength of schedule is No. 50 and the best win right now is a one-point win over a 4-6 Missouri State team. Illinois State needs a win and a lot of chaos to make the field.
Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa, Youngstown State, and North Dakota all have the same thing going for them. They will all finish the season with a top-15 strength of schedule. Most of the best wins on their resume have all come against each other. Southern Illinois may be the best exception to this because, despite their recent struggles, the Salukis have wins over Austin Peay and an FBS win over Northern Illinois. With another win Saturday, the Salukis should have a strong enough resume to earn an at-large bid.
At first glance, it would be difficult to put Southern Illinois in the bracket and leave Youngstown State out after the Penguins beat the Salukis 31-3 earlier this season. The problem is that looking at the whole body of work, Youngstown State lacks another signature win on their resume. The Penguins should beat Murray State this weekend, but without some help, Youngstown State will finish the season 7-4 and may be on the outside looking in once again.
Northern Iowa has two wins over the four teams in this group, which would have given the Panthers a huge advantage. That is until this team lost to 4-6 Missouri State in a non-competitive 35-16 loss this past weekend. The Panthers now have to beat North Dakota State to realistically receive consideration for an at-large bid. If the Panthers do win this weekend, they will have wins over fellow bubble teams North Dakota State, Youngstown State, and North Dakota. Northern Iowa also will have the No. 1 strength of schedule. North Dakota arrives on the bubble riding the coattails of their 49-24 win over the Bison. Outside of that game, North Dakota does not have an impressive win and has failed to impress on the field. The Fighting Hawks need to beat Illinois State and look good doing it this weekend to secure a spot in the field.
MEAC
Locks: None
Should be in: None
Work to do: North Carolina Central
In one of the most shocking results from the entire season, Howard stunned North Carolina Central in a 50-20 blowout win. The Bison now control their own destiny for a potential Celebration Bowl appearance and a win over Morgan State this weekend will secure Howard's spot in Atlanta. North Carolina Central would be eligible for at-large consideration in the FCS playoffs with a Howard win. Assuming the Eagles bounce back against Delaware State this weekend, the Eagles would have a 9-2 record and 8-1 against the FCS. An 8-1 record against the FCS should be enough to get the Eagles into the field but there is still doubt due to a low strength of schedule and lack of quality wins. The Eagles would have the lowest strength of schedule of all non-Pioneer/NEC teams in the field. The win over Elon did come when Elon was ranked and North Carolina Central has been ranked highly in both polls all season. The poor strength of schedule and blowout loss could be held against this team if the bubble becomes tighter this weekend.
NEC
Locks: None
Should be in: None
Work to do: Duquesne, Merrimack
Duquesne blew a chance to earn the NEC auto-bid with a 33-28 loss to Stonehill this weekend. The loss sets up a simple playoff scenario this weekend. Duquesne and Merrimack play this weekend for the NEC title. The winner will make the field and the loser's season will end this weekend.
Patriot
Locks: None
Should be in: None
Work to do: Lafayette, Holy Cross
Lafayette bounced back from a loss to Colgate two weeks ago and defeated Fordham, which brings the Leopards closer to clinching the auto-bid for the Patriot League. The Leopards still need to beat Lehigh, but with a win, they will wrap up the conference title with the head-to-head tiebreaker over Holy Cross. Holy Cross fell three points short against Army and the Crusaders really needed the FBS win to boost their at-large resume. Holy Cross can still get to seven wins but has no real signature win on the resume. The only real chance is to beat Georgetown and hope that Lehigh can pull off the upset over Lafayette, which would give Holy Cross the auto-bid for the conference.
Pioneer
Locks: None
Should be in: None
Work to do: Drake, Davidson
Davidson had a massive loss to Morehead State last weekend and the Wildcats are now 6-1 in conference. Drake clawed their way to a 7-0 record in conference after an ugly 16-14 win over Presbyterian. Drake now has a tough game against Butler and will clinch the auto-bid with a victory. If the Bulldogs were to lose and Davidson defeats Dayton, the Wildcats would win the auto-bid.
SoCon
Locks: Furman
Furman locked up the SoCon auto-bid with their 17-14 win over Chattanooga a couple of weeks ago and now are just playing for seeding. With a win over Wofford this weekend, the Paladins would have an undefeated resume over the FCS and would be guaranteed a top-three seed. An undefeated FCS record and three ranked wins would give Furman a great chance to earn the No. 2 overall seed.
Should be in: Western Carolina, Mercer
Western Carolina is starting to build some positive momentum with a 58-7 victory over ETSU. The Catamounts will earn an at-large bid with a win against VMI this weekend. This could be a dangerous postseason team with a healthy Desmond Reid returning in the backfield. Mercer won an important game over Samford last weekend and finished the regular season with an 8-3 record and a ranked road win over Western Carolina. The strength of schedule may rank outside the Top 50, however, the Bears reached eight wins in a strong SoCon and that should get Mercer into the field.
Work to do: Chattanooga
Chattanooga had an opportunity to win the SoCon two weeks ago but fell short in a 17-14 loss to Furman. The Mocs only have one game remaining, a matchup against Alabama. Chattanooga will finish the season 7-4 and have a bad loss to North Alabama on the resume. The situation for the Mocs feels identical to last season when this team finished 7-4 and was left out of the playoffs. The Mocs can still find a way to sneak in but they will need several teams on the bubble to lose and help them out.
Southland
Locks: Nicholls State
Nicholls State locked up the Southland auto-bid with an impressive 37-24 win over Lamar. Now the focus shifts to preparing for a potential first-round win in the FCS playoffs. The ground game continues to be dominant for Nicholls as the Colonels have rushed for 300+ yards in back-to-back games.
Should be in: None
Work to do: Incarnate Word
Incarnate Word will have to earn an at-large bid, but that could be a tough task due to the size of the bubble this season. Overall record and team statistics might suggest that the Cardinals deserve an at-large bid as the Cardinals would finish 7-1 against FCS with a win this weekend. Incarnate Word is ranked No. 8 in Total Offense and No. 5 in Total Defense (yards per play), which is impressive as the only other team in the nation that is top ten in total offense and defense is South Dakota State. This team does have two main problems: strength of schedule and lack of signature wins. The Cardinals have struggled with turnovers as Incarnate Word ranks No. 102 in the nation with 18 turnovers. After Nicholls locked up the auto-bid, it will be interesting to see what the committee does with Incarnate Word.
UAC
Locks: None
Should be in: Austin Peay
Austin Peay has an 8-2 record after a win over Utah Tech last weekend and a 7-1 record against the FCS. The Governors would clinch the UAC auto-bid with a win over Central Arkansas this weekend and a 9-2 record would give this team an excellent chance to potentially earn a seed. If Austin Peay loses this weekend, the Governors would be 8-3 with a quality win over Gardner-Webb. The Governors also have the No. 28 strength of schedule, which would also help them when being compared to other potential at-large teams. The Governors should be in the field regardless of Saturday’s result but did have a big loss to another bubble team in Southern Illinois at the beginning of the season.
Work to do: Central Arkansas
Central Arkansas still controls its own destiny after a thrilling last-second win over Eastern Kentucky last weekend and could earn the UAC auto-bid with a win against Austin Peay this weekend. If the Bears do not beat Austin Peay and are looking for an at-large bid, they would only have six Division I wins due to a Division II win on the schedule. This would not be enough for Central Arkansas to earn an at-large bid.
***Tarleton State is not eligible for the 2023 FCS Playoffs because of the NCAA transition rule.
Note: Florida A&M clinched the SWAC East and a berth to the SWAC championship game, which eliminates the Rattlers from playoff consideration.
